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billyjoe,
These pictures are for you and other TDB players. I'm trying to learn the game. The "big hit" was the machine next to me. I had held 25 hands X 3 Aces+K 4 times and not one hit. Plus 25 hand (3) 2-4's + K over 150 hands an only one hit.
The second picture is one of my 100x1 results after my neighbor's big hit.
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My luck on TDB
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TDB Volatility
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BillyJoe
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3198
- Joined: Sat Aug 23, 2008 2:00 pm
The hits in TDB can happen, Larry. As you know, though, the volatility of the game requires a bankroll to pursue.
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Vman96
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3298
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:49 am
I had held 25 hands X 3 Aces+K 4 times and not one hit. Plus 25 hand (3) 2-4's + K over 150 hands an only one hit.
Well, when you have something like AAA + kicker or 222 + kicker on a multiplay TDB game the probability of bricking all of them (a full house is a "brick" too) is just:
(46/47)^N
where N is the number of hands played. Also ^ is an exponential sign. So that's 46/47 to the Nth power.
So with a 25-play machine, you should completely brick AAA + kicker:
(46/47)^25 = 0.58412 = 58.14% of the time
Doing it back to back would simply double the number of hands:
(46/47)^50 = 0.3412 = 34.12% of the time
Note the is the same math as the probability of bricking 4 to a Royal Flush. Sorry that you were part of the unlucky third this time! Some of your other pics make me think that's somewhat rare for you.
Well, when you have something like AAA + kicker or 222 + kicker on a multiplay TDB game the probability of bricking all of them (a full house is a "brick" too) is just:
(46/47)^N
where N is the number of hands played. Also ^ is an exponential sign. So that's 46/47 to the Nth power.
So with a 25-play machine, you should completely brick AAA + kicker:
(46/47)^25 = 0.58412 = 58.14% of the time
Doing it back to back would simply double the number of hands:
(46/47)^50 = 0.3412 = 34.12% of the time
Note the is the same math as the probability of bricking 4 to a Royal Flush. Sorry that you were part of the unlucky third this time! Some of your other pics make me think that's somewhat rare for you.
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spxChrome
- VP Veteran
- Posts: 819
- Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 9:21 pm
Did the same thing just this week playing 100 play got dealt trip Aces 3x and never pulled a 4th ace. Then I hold 2 and pull 4 4x and hold 1 and pull 4 2x. ok
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Lucky Larry
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2693
- Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:35 pm
The hits in TDB can happen, Larry. As you know, though, the volatility of the game requires a bankroll to pursue.
billyjoe,
I know I only have to watch Sweet C hit AWAK holding a single Ace or a pair of 2's and hitting 2'swK. I'm looking forward to more hands where the odds turn my way. Like my catching a Royal this weekend holding nothing.
I watched on TDB player who started with $400 and played only 20 hands - David left with $1,400 but I've seen many not have the bank roll to survive if the hits aren't coming.
billyjoe,
I know I only have to watch Sweet C hit AWAK holding a single Ace or a pair of 2's and hitting 2'swK. I'm looking forward to more hands where the odds turn my way. Like my catching a Royal this weekend holding nothing.
I watched on TDB player who started with $400 and played only 20 hands - David left with $1,400 but I've seen many not have the bank roll to survive if the hits aren't coming.
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Lucky Larry
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 2693
- Joined: Sat Dec 13, 2008 7:35 pm
Did the same thing just this week playing 100 play got dealt trip Aces 3x and never pulled a 4th ace. Then I hold 2 and pull 4 4x and hold 1 and pull 4 2x. ok
Chrome,
I know and understand. Kinda like I remarked to BJ. I held nothing and caught a Royal. Hopefully, the more I play this new game the more it will balance.
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Vman96
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 3298
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:49 am
I know I only have to watch Sweet C hit AWAK holding a single Ace or a pair of 2's and hitting 2'swK. I'm looking forward to more hands where the odds turn my way. Like my catching a Royal this weekend holding nothing.
Yep, saw it happen with the chick next to me on my birthday trip to Tunica. Held just an ace on a 9/5 TDB 3-play with Double STP, and she got AAA3 on the draw. Unfortunately by the time I called it a night (an ~hour later), she had lost most of it. This game really requires an iron stomach, imo.
