New player wondering how I'm doing

[shadowman]

The biggest thing to understand about random games like VP is that everything is possible. Your limited experience is of little value. It can all change in a heart beat.

For example, since you haven't hit a RF yet the return of the game is close to 97.5%. The fact you've done fairly well is what is called variance. You have exceeded the expectation of the game. This could change at any time. A couple of years ago I had 9 straight losing sessions and followed that by winning 7 of the next 9. Streakiness is common to VP.

I guess what I'm saying is it will take a long time for things to average out. Months if not years. Also, a $500 bankroll for quarter play is insufficient. There is a high probability you will lose it all. The general rule of thumb is for a bankroll to be 3-5 RFs. That would mean a minimum of $3000.

Finally, don't confuse full play with positive return. A positive game is over 100% and the higher the better. More than 50% of the people that play a 100% game will still lose.

Otherwise, I think you're doing the right thing by asking questions. Lots of knowledge available.

[Jeff1000]

The biggest thing to understand about random games like VP is that everything is possible. Your limited experience is of little value. It can all change in a heart beat.

For example, since you haven't hit a RF yet the return of the game is close to 97.5%. The fact you've done fairly well is what is called variance. You have exceeded the expectation of the game. This could change at any time. A couple of years ago I had 9 straight losing sessions and followed that by winning 7 of the next 9. Streakiness is common to VP.

I guess what I'm saying is it will take a long time for things to average out. Months if not years. Also, a $500 bankroll for quarter play is insufficient. There is a high probability you will lose it all. The general rule of thumb is for a bankroll to be 3-5 RFs. That would mean a minimum of $3000.

Finally, don't confuse full play with positive return. A positive game is over 100% and the higher the better. More than 50% of the people that play a 100% game will still lose.

Otherwise, I think you're doing the right thing by asking questions. Lots of knowledge available.

Appreciate your input Shadowman.

I haven't really thought that I've done fairly well, just that I ever so slightly topped 99.5% that is the $1199 BP game I'm playing.

You're right, I've hit every hand except a Royal Flush. The Straight Flush I hit yesterday was out of nowhere; I wasn't even playing for it.

I could increase my bankroll to 3k but so far I've only needed $160 for all the playing I've done. It scares me to hear you say how long losing can linger, even as much as 3k. Hard to believe but I don't doubt it.

It's funny though, I'm only playing to try to make money even though I do enjoy it, but I could walk away with no problem. I don't have a gambling problem at all. If I never gambled another day in my life I would be perfectly fine with that.

I'm going to try to live or die with a philosophy I concocted being: Quit while you're ahead, and keep playing if you're losing.

I went back to always holding two pair and keeping two unsuited high cards. I could see today how those push hands we're keeping me afloat until a better hand came along.

What was strange today is that no waitress offered me a drink, and the staff seemed cooler towards me. I've been there 4 days in a row. Could they be punishing me for not being a loser? I'm sort of joking but I don't know how vigilant they are at a casino. I know if you're losing they love you to death, and they wait on you hand and foot .

Thanks again Shadowman.

[doris13]

you are tipping the waitress i hope

[Jeff1000]

you are tipping the waitress i hope

Yes! I forgot to mention that. I tip 3 dollars for every drink, and the waitresses seemed to really appreciate it, that's why I was a little paranoid after today.

[Jeff1000]

The more I think about this it seems that the one huge advantage that a player has over a casino is that the player has complete control over when he quits playing at any given session.

Since there are wild swings while playing, negative and positive, it only makes sense to quit playing when you are on a positive run and hopefully in the green.

I imagine what happens is that greed takes over for many players when they're winning, or maybe some players are simply addicted to gambling and can't control this variable.

Think about it though, you're probably going to be both up and down at every session, so why wouldn't you stop playing when you're up. The casino can't control their machines to stop playing when they're up on a player and preventing a player from coming back, but as a player you can control when you stop playing, and you can prevent the machines from getting their money back by the simple act of quitting. That seems to me to be a HUGE advantage to the player, and there's nothing the casino can do about it.

This is one topic I never hear anyone talking about. It's all what games to play, or what hands to hold, or where to play, or what software to buy, or mathematics, or this or that, but never about the biggest advantage a player has: The ability to dictate when play ends.

[Quad Deuces]

$3 a drink is 3X what the waitresses at the Palms are expecting.  I, personally, don't drink when I play.  Drinking while practicing was enough to get me off the wine/booze when real money was at stake.  If I do decide to play and drink for social reasons, I play drastically slower and at much lower stakes than usual.You should not put so much weight into the results "this time."  It doesn't matter what happens today or when you quit yesterday, up or down.  It is all one long session from the time you start playing VP to the time you quit or die or whatever.  Quitting while you're ahead does nothing to enhance your overall return.  Next time you sit down you might never be ahead.  When do you quit then -500, -1000, -2000, -5000 coins??You can control two things.  One: what game you play, Two: what cards you hold on every deal.  You cannot win over time holding the wrong cards, or playing lousy games.At the Palms, you need to either play the 100% games or effectively get 2X points to just break even.  You can play 9/6 JoB for 99.54% plus the 0.25% club, so you need something to push it over 100%.  This is usually either drawings or their play, earn and win.  They just finished a good one for effectively double points on gift cards.  It usually requires like $20K coin in to get a $50 gift card, otherwise you get, umm, junk.And don't forget about South Point, Gold Coast, and Stations.  There are some good opportunities on multiplier days there as well.For the 25c player, Full-Pay deuces is available at the Palms and Stations but with limited promotional opportunities.  You can also find 9/6 JoB, 9/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe, 4-4-10-16 NSU Deuces Wild and also some 8/5 Super Aces Bonus with 300 for the straight flush.There are good games for low stakes and reasonable promotions (free buffets, etc) all over Las Vegas.

[Jeff1000]

$3 a drink is 3X what the waitresses at the Palms are expecting.  I, personally, don't drink when I play.  Drinking while practicing was enough to get me off the wine/booze when real money was at stake.  If I do decide to play and drink for social reasons, I play drastically slower and at much lower stakes than usual.You should not put so much weight into the results "this time."  It doesn't matter what happens today or when you quit yesterday, up or down.  It is all one long session from the time you start playing VP to the time you quit or die or whatever.  Quitting while you're ahead does nothing to enhance your overall return.  Next time you sit down you might never be ahead.  When do you quit then -500, -1000, -2000, -5000 coins??You can control two things.  One: what game you play, Two: what cards you hold on every deal.  You cannot win over time holding the wrong cards, or playing lousy games.At the Palms, you need to either play the 100% games or effectively get 2X points to just break even.  You can play 9/6 JoB for 99.54% plus the 0.25% club, so you need something to push it over 100%.  This is usually either drawings or their play, earn and win.  They just finished a good one for effectively double points on gift cards.  It usually requires like $20K coin in to get a $50 gift card, otherwise you get, umm, junk.And don't forget about South Point, Gold Coast, and Stations.  There are some good opportunities on multiplier days there as well.For the 25c player, Full-Pay deuces is available at the Palms and Stations but with limited promotional opportunities.  You can also find 9/6 JoB, 9/6 Bonus Poker Deluxe, 4-4-10-16 NSU Deuces Wild and also some 8/5 Super Aces Bonus with 300 for the straight flush.There are good games for low stakes and reasonable promotions (free buffets, etc) all over Las Vegas.




Hey Quad Deuces, great to hear from you. Thanks for the great information.

To be honest, I never considered that you could lose and lose and lose over a reasonable amount of time in a single session. I just assumed that with a 99.5% payback the odds of that happening would be extremely remote, and in my limited experience that has proven to be true, but lots of people die from lightning strikes every year so anything is possible.

I thought that a 3 dollar tip was generous enough, but these waitresses deserve it in my opinion. I get pleasure from tipping them. It truly is my pleasure.

Before I left the Palms today I went to the place/ booth (don't know what to call it) where my Player's Card was issued and asked the young lady if there was any specific day or time that would more advantageous to playing video poker, like player's points or promotions. She just shook her head 'no'. Then I said "so playing video poker is exactly the same whenever you play"? She shook her head 'yes', but I have to admit that I didn't believe her at all and plan on following up on this asking other employees and players if that is indeed true.

I'm thinking about checking out the Gold Coast next, but I still have a fondness that I can't explain for the Palms. Maybe it's because I enjoyed The Real World Las Vegas so much . I had the hots for that southern chick on there; I think her name was Trischelle lol.

I still haven't located the 9/6 JoB machines at the Palms; I'm still enjoying Bonus Poker. Today I saw a bank of Deuces Wild but I don't know if they are FP. I think they were 10/7, if I remember correctly. But I'd have to do a lot of research and studying before I even considered playing them.

I might take off tomorrow and head back Monday.

I'm keeping a running log of what happens every time I play. Nothing specific like hands played but where the bottom line ended up for that day; the machine I played, and any exceptional hands I hit like that straight flush yesterday. As you said, I'll know what the real story is when I end my playing career and add up all the numbers. I love Las Vegas .

Thanks again!

[Quad Deuces]

The 100%+ machines are all in the corner of the casino east of the front desk.The slot club was wrong.  It's usually better to play at the Palms on Mon-Wed-Fri for the play earn and win.  At least if you like what they're giving.www.vpfree2.com is your friend.The 25c 10-line 9/6 JoB machines at the Palms are pretty popular.  They also have some 2c 50-line by the food court.Be on the lookout for the "This machine is not eligible for promotions" stickers.  Some machines have 9/6 JoB but also have NSU Deuces making the whole machine ineligible for promotions.If you have an out-of-area driver license and didn't take advantage of the $1000 loss rebate promo, my condolences.

[Jeff1000]

The 100%+ machines are all in the corner of the casino east of the front desk.The slot club was wrong.  It's usually better to play at the Palms on Mon-Wed-Fri for the play earn and win.  At least if you like what they're giving.www.vpfree2.com is your friend.The 25c 10-line 9/6 JoB machines at the Palms are pretty popular.  They also have some 2c 50-line by the food court.Be on the lookout for the "This machine is not eligible for promotions" stickers.  Some machines have 9/6 JoB but also have NSU Deuces making the whole machine ineligible for promotions.If you have an out-of-area driver license and didn't take advantage of the $1000 loss rebate promo, my condolences.



Thanks for the info Quad Deuces!

No, I have a Nevada driver's license. I had to get my NV license before I started truck driving school.

My Club Palms card has a sticker on it that says "50 Plus Sterling Advantage Rewards". I have no idea what the Sterling Advantage Rewards are. The girl just basically asked for an ID and if the address on my driver's license was current, and then had me select a PIN number.

Nothing was explained to me. In fact I just discovered yesterday that I could cash out of a machine and use that ticket instead of cash for another machine. Also, I learned that I could just enter my PIN number on a VP machine and redeem my points for cash to play with.

I'll slowly figure all this stuff out. Thanks again for the info and tips.

[Quad Deuces]

It can be Nevada, just not Clark County.Anyway, around the corner from the club booth are all the promotion rules.  You usually have to ask for a Play/Earn/Win sheet at the promotion center.  You take the value of the item and divide it by the coin in required to get the added return.  Cash equivalents are easiest, such as a $50 gift card for 20,000 points 50/20000 = .0025 or 0.25%.Being 50+ usually means additional point multipliers (at places other than the Palms) cheap movie tickets/bowling, etc, and things like half-point dining on certain days.I have found the slot club personnel at the Palms to be among the least knowledgeable/helpful.  Almost as though they're instructed to say "I don't know" just to keep them from saying something wrong.If I were you, I'd pick one game and learn it cold.  If you're going to stay at 25c, I'd probably play full-pay deuces.  At single-line quarters you are not going to be able to earn meaningful promotional items like drawing tickets so you might as well play the 100.76% game for 7 to 8 dollars per hour.  If you're going to go up in denomination, I'd learn NSU deuces.  Spend $10 on a smart phone app or google "video poker trainer".  Fix the leaks in your game before they cost you big.Every casino worth playing at usually has a single best play at a particular denomination.  I have my favorites at the Palms, Gold Coast, Stations, Rampart, the D, South Point, and Suncoast.  I have to know 4 different games to take advantage of those plays at those casinos.  This is mostly at multi-line 10c / 25c or single line $1.  If I played at a different level, it would certainly eliminate some of those casinos from contention and open up other opportunities.$3K is a perfectly acceptable bankroll for 25c play provided you play only when you have an edge and play accurately.  If you get to the point where you're getting, say, a $20 mailer from three casinos, that will mean at the end of a year your bottom line will be $720 higher than it would be without the free play. That's about a quarter of your total bankroll and if you're playing a 100%+ game in the first place that goes a long way toward evening out a few bad days.Most days you will lose.  Some days you will get nothing from the machine and it will suck $500 from you.  Other days will be a lot more fun and draws will be full of wild royals, 5OAKs, straight flushes and deuces.  And you might occasionally catch a natural royal.