New player wondering how I'm doing

[Vman96]

Has anyone ever factored in how many percentage points being disciplined enough to quit playing is worth? I suspect, but can't prove, obviously, at the moment anyway, that it might be as much as 10%. Suddenly that JoB game might have a payout of 109.54%. It's something to think about anyway.

If it is worth more than 0.00000000000000%, then the machine is illegal in Nevada, New Jersey, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Maryland, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylania, West Virginia, and a few other states I am missing due to me being lazy.

Quitting while your ahead doesn't improve your future results in the game. Thinking this way is very dangerous, imo. So let's say you are playing a 99.17% machine without errors, and your results after 5 sessions is a 122% return. You proceed to play 10000 more sessions on the machine. Your overall return will be very close to 99.17% by then. More volume will make you approach the expected return in the long run.

[Jeff1000]

Hey Vman, let's use the example that some player was making money or breaking even every time he played (or almost every time) how can the return be under 100%? It can't, it would have to be over 100%.

I believe that the status quo returns (99.54 in the case of JoB for example) apply to most players who are gamblers at heart and can't control their gambling.

[onemoretry]

Hey Vman, let's use the example that some player was making money or breaking even every time he played (or almost every time) how can the return be under 100%? 

 
 You will find, as you play more, that you can't "break even" every, or almost every time.

[Jeff1000]

[QUOTE=Jeff1000]Hey Vman, let's use the example that some player was making money or breaking even every time he played (or almost every time) how can the return be under 100%? 

 
 You will find, as you play more, that you can't "break even" every, or almost every time.[/QUOTE]

Sure, if you immediately get down and stay down no matter how long you play, but I bet in reality that most times that a player finishes in the red at some point he had an opportunity to finish even or up. With the status quo 99 to 100% payout the odds of always being down in a session have to be remote at best.

[Jeff1000]

Just got back from the Palms, only played about 40 minutes, walked out with $120. This is the first time I only needed 20 dollars to play with. I didn't get any big hands just a couple quads, a few FHs, a flush or two, and a straight or two.

I feel that 9/6 JoB is a much better play than 8/5 Bonus Poker, for me anyway.

So far 6 days in a row never having to walk out a loser. I'm only up $250 but I keep making more and more as time goes by. Yesterday I only won 70 bucks but that was for about an hour at the machine. Today $120 for less than an hour.

Only time will tell though how well this works out.

Oh yeah, no drinks today either, or coffee and donuts (that was advertised on the big sign near the street).

[Vman96]

Hey Vman, let's use the example that some player was making money or breaking even every time he played (or almost every time) how can the return be under 100%? It can't, it would have to be over 100%.


This will never happen over a "significant" sample on even a Full-Pay Deuces Wild machine in Vegas (100.76% optimal return).

When I say "significant" I'm talking 100s or even better, 1000s of sessions of about 1000 hands each. Anyone can win 5 1000-hand sessions in a row occasionally, but eventually you'll get bad hands and will end up with a losing session.

I believe that the status quo returns (99.54 in the case of JoB for example) apply to most players who are gamblers at heart and can't control their gambling.

No, 99.54% return is for computers that would never make a mistake playing. Remember that the word "optimal" means, you can't do better that this expectation in the very long term. This is why casinos can offer games like this because even if you make the best possible play every time, the house still wins in the LONG RUN. The "gamblers" you speak of, play 9/6 JoB closer to 97 to 98% return. Most video poker players don't play optimally, so the expected return they would see from the on their machine is a couple percent lower than returns that can be computed from the paytables.

But remember you're not even close to the "long run" yet. In any given session, you can easily win hundreds or lose hundreds of dollars at the quarter level. Just because you have been fortunate enough to not see a sizable losing session yet, it doesn't mean it will never happen to you.

[Jeff1000]

Fair enough Vman. I can't be making claims until I have a lengthy track record to back up my claims, but I still don't accept all the dogma and doctrine that seems to run rampant in this field. And I believe that "playing perfectly" has a lot more to it than just holding all the so-called correct cards. If "when to stop playing" is not factored in, from my perspective, the status quo numbers are pretty much meaningless for certain players.

[Quad Deuces]

"dogma and doctrine"You have to explain how, if you played 1,000,000,000 hands, you would be better off if you got up from the machine only when you happened to be "up" for that particular shift only to sit down and play the following 1800 hands in your "career" at a later date.Nonsensical.

[Jeff1000]

QD, I'm not sure about your question. It doesn't make any sense to me.

Let me ask you instead: when should a player stop playing?

I read a poster here who talked about the pros playing super fast and banging out 1000s and 1000s of hands over 8-10 hour shifts. What the heck is that all about? Shouldn't the goal be to get the hell out of the casino ASAP so you don't lose your shirt. If you hit a profit goal within 10 minutes of sitting down shouldn't you get up and leave the casino?

It doesn't seem to me that this VP gig is about the longer and harder you work (play) the more money you make. I mean if someone is addicted to casinos and gambling then that's a different issue altogether, but if you're strictly just interested in making money and you have more interesting things you'd like to do with your time, then how could it be anything but counter productive the longer you're in the casino.

It seems to me that long term play/ statistics are illusory. Isn't it more like a series of short term sessions strung together where the goal at every session is to get up and leave at the earliest possible opportunity when you're in the green?

[R_aNe_R]

Hey Jeff...
How are you doing...looks like your ahead a bit...
According to your posts...
I'm going to vegas in a few weeks so I have been on the VP trainer getting ready...
I take training brakes when I start making mistakes, In
one of my brakes I thought to myself if there were any
casino games that you could beat with a system.
So I started checking U-Tube videos found this system for roulette. I think it's is worth checking out...
Looks bullet proof to me...
I am going to check it out when I'm in vegas looks interesting...
The thing is casinos don't like to loose so they may
object to this system ounce they see what you are doing.
Here is link... If this web site does not let it go live,
Just copy and paste the URL to your browser...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukrXKfcZmek