Worst mistake I ever saw on a VP Machine

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roveer
Senior Member
Posts: 458
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:20 am

Re: Worst mistake I ever saw on a VP Machine

Post by roveer »

Recently saw an older gentleman playing STP 10 handed. Had a 10x multiplier and must have missed the pair of 3's and held the King high. I think he blanked. I too see a lot of bad holds and at first I'm always asking myself, what did I miss. Is there a defect in my play, but then I think about it for a second and feel confident that I was making the right choice. I too kind of feel that it's ok to have people playing with poor strategy. If we were all playing perfect all the time the casino's would have to find a way to change the advantage (if they are not doing it already). Let them pour their money in, and hopefully I'll drag it back out is how I think.

Last week I posted an 8x FH and really had a time after a poster said it would have been nice to go for the quad. I even went and ran the hand on my trainer a bunch of times. After that I was pretty secure with taking the FH. I haven't had that much luck pulling the finishing card that much lately so I followed my strategy and took the cash. Only when I have a comfortable cushion do I find myself willing to really gamble otherwise its pp, pp, pp... It could be said that I'm always playing over my head. I think I asked a long time ago how much I should bankroll to play my 10 handed STP over an 8 hour period and the answer was 50K+. Considering that my per visit bankroll is a fraction of that, I'm in over my head. But it sure is fun :)

Roveer...

Tedlark
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Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2006 12:29 am

Post by Tedlark »

  I may have mentioned that I would have been tempted to go for the 4th 3 but hey, I'm "Mr. Vegas." Quoting John Candy here folks.

olds442jetaway
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Post by olds442jetaway »

Speaking of mistakes, how big of a mistake is it percentage wise on TDB if one is dealt 3 Aces with a 2,3,or 4 to just hold the aces. I see people do this all the time. I'm guessing it could be a fairly close call, but then again looking at the paytables, I would always hold the kicker on this game if I did play it.

Minn. Fatz
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Joined: Mon May 07, 2007 12:22 am

Post by Minn. Fatz »

roveer, the Wizard says hold FH or better in 9/6 Ultimate X DDB -- see http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-pok ... ble-bonus/ -- you were playing 8/5 so I'd say you made the right play.

olds44, the hand calculator at the same site shows holding AAA2 from AAA72 returns 19.43 per coin in while holding AAA returns only 15.66.

sam434343
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Post by sam434343 »

olds442jetaway, I am guilty(mistake)(lol) of exactly what you said on TDB and I know the correct play is holding the kicker with the 3 Aces. Now that I have admitted my guilt(mistake) I haven't kept stats. but I can say have gotten 4Aces and have also got 4Aces with kicker on many different occasions, the stats.(computer stats.) don't lie it is better to hold 3Aces and kicker and draw to that, but this is my mistake I can live with it, plus if somebody wants to pay for my gambling I will play it by the book(percentages). Any takers. Now I know when I am dealt full house aces over 5s to kings weather I am playing DDB or TDB I always thro the pair away and go for 4 Aces did not keep stats. but hundreds of times didn't get 4 Aces but have gotten four ace on number times and on few times got 4 Aces with kicker and doing it this way is the right way. There is a big change playing DDB &TDB with2,3,4, and going for four a kind that's another post(lol). Sam

roveer
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Post by roveer »

roveer, the Wizard says hold FH or better in 9/6 Ultimate X DDB -- see http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-pok ... ble-bonus/ -- you were playing 8/5 so I'd say you made the right play.

olds44, the hand calculator at the same site shows holding AAA2 from AAA72 returns 19.43 per coin in while holding AAA returns only 15.66.

But I was playing STP

Minn. Fatz
VP Veteran
Posts: 522
Joined: Mon May 07, 2007 12:22 am

Post by Minn. Fatz »

[QUOTE=Minn. Fatz] roveer, the Wizard says hold FH or better in 9/6 Ultimate X DDB...

But I was playing STP [/QUOTE]

Then you were even more right...

roveer
Senior Member
Posts: 458
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2006 1:20 am

Post by roveer »


[QUOTE=roveer] [QUOTE=Minn. Fatz] roveer, the Wizard says hold FH or better in 9/6 Ultimate X DDB...

But I was playing STP [/QUOTE]

Then you were even more right... [/QUOTE]
 That's what I thought.  The only time I pull off a FH is if it's trip A's.  I believe that's the proper play as well.  Sucks when it doesn't pay though, but sure is fun for a few seconds.  Wakes you up in a hurry. Roveer 

Tedlark
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Post by Tedlark »

  The Wizard of Odds says to use the same strategy for STP as regular DDB. If I wereplaying 10 play STP and an 8X multiplier popped up when I was dealt 33377, granted, it would be tough to turn down the full house. I however would take the chance at losing out on the guaranteed $1,600 and settling for $600.00 and go for the possible 4th 3 and adding 3,080 or 6,380 (assuming I hit only 1 quad 3), or more for hitting multiple quad 3's. I might get lucky and pick up a stray full house which would add an additional 200 coins.
 
  Here's a question for the forum panel: Say you were dealt 33377 in the above scenario and had an 8X multiplier showing and you kept the full house, would you pay a token amount after the hand were over to see what the next cards would have been if you discarded the two 7's?

Minn. Fatz
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Joined: Mon May 07, 2007 12:22 am

Post by Minn. Fatz »

Going for quads from 33377 in 8/5 DDB costs you over 2.6 credits per hand of expected value; in 9/6 it's almost triple that, over 7.3 credits. With an 8x multiplier playing 3 hands for quarters, that's...pause to consult slide rule...over $15 in 8/5 and nearly $44 in 9/6.

Multiply that by everyone in Vegas who does the same, that's another billion-dollar property on the Strip. Casino owners love short-term thinking as much as they love hunches. Both make for bad player mathematics.

So no, I don't want to know whether holding the FH "cost" me quads with a kicker. I can calculate how much money I save making the max EV play.

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