best play autoholds: blessing or curse?

[Minn. Fatz]

VMan, there's no extra charge for the multiplier feature on "Reel Deal VP." You "pay" for the feature with the lower-EV pay table. The multiplier you get for 3K+ "depends" on the results of a 3-reel slot display above the VP hand; I'd assume that was determined by the RNG in a similar way to Super Times Pay, etc. But I can't find any info on the Interweb about the game; next time I see one I'll look for a manufacturer.

[Minn. Fatz]

Taking another look at the 2P situation I believe VMan is correct, holding 2P is the right play. However it's still right at any multiplier level as the possible payoff for 3K and 4K from breaking the hand won't make up for the fewer FH from that play.

In every 16215 trials, breaking 2P should result in:

45 4K, 169 FH, 1852 3K, 2629 2P and 11520 1P

while holding the 2P should result in:

0 4K, 1380 FH (4*345), 0 3K, 14835 2P

Looking only at the hands subject to the multiplier, breaking 2P results in

45 more 4K, 1211 fewer FH and 1852 more 3K

than holding 2P. When we multiply these coefficients by the payoffs for each hand type we get -3007. Since holding 2P is better than breaking it without the multiplier and since any multiplier is going to be less favorable to breaking 2P, holding 2P is the correct play.

Given the state compact limit on VP expected value I'd guess the average multiplier for the game would not be much more than 3.0 and is possibly less.

[Vman96]

If you don't pay extra, then I'm assuming you often get 1X for the multiplier?

For example if you had something like this:
1X 90%
2X 7%
5X 2%
10X 1%

The average multiplier would be 1.24X and the return of the game would be 96.69%, very in line with many other games in Minnesota. Increasing it to 1.25X makes the game 97.21%, so 1.25X really makes a lot of sense.

[Lucky Larry]

Many of the truck stops in the Lake Charles area have auto-hold VP. Sweet C and I can't stand it even though we found the holds to be correct.

[Minn. Fatz]

Just got back from another trip to Fond-du-Luth and played both autohold and no-autohold machines. After further review I think I prefer playing without autohold.

For me VP is more than finding the best game and mashing buttons on it. It's coming up with the best-returning strategies that are still playable; practicing those strategies until I can execute them consistently well; and practicing good money management.

Sitting at a bartop machine with a watered-down Manhattan going, "deal. OK, that's the right hold. Draw. Deal. OK that's right again. Draw." just doesn't cut it for me. When I win I don't get the warm feeling that I've done my homework and been rewarded; when I lose it's just mashing buttons like any slot machine.

So part of my VP practice going forward is also going to have to be never playing over a comfortable credit limit and knuckling down on strategy work so I never wind up losing more than I care to through error.