A year in Quads - 2013

[spxChrome]

Last year is my 4th year keeping quad totals, I finally go to adding them up and this is the result. Last year the games I played was a little different than previous years cause the casino I mostly play at changed games. The biggest change was less TDB at the $1 level cause it was eliminated, also no SDB or Super Aces as it was also eliminated and a little more Double Deuces and Triple Deuces (guess that's why my 2's are up a little). But it is 98% single line I would say 15% 9/7 TDB, 60% 9/6&5 DDB, 15% D2x and 3xD, 10% other various games. But I logged all quads no matter what the game.

A - 82
2 - 94
3 - 76
4 - 79
5 - 101
6 - 108
7 - 119
8 - 220 !!
9 - 99
10 - 156
J - 108
Q - 131
K - 122

It seems every year there is 1 quad I hit way more than the others. In the past it has been (in order) 9,8,7 and last year 8 again with over 3x the Aces number (fwiw this year it is 10's). This is around 900K hands of play below my average cause the past couple of months I did not go as often. Still makes no sense with the huge variance in the numbers after the hands that pay a bonus (A,2,3,4). Given the games I play you would think Aces would be way high as I break any FH with Aces and hold a single Ace way more times that I would hold a single 8 (lol).

My hit ratio for quads was 1/602 which is also down from the past years... in order 1/550, 1/551, only good news is I hit 3 more Royals than last year at 14 so that's 1/64K compared to last years 1/77K. So for the 4th year in a row what mathematically is suppose to happen doesn't so don't let the payback% fool you even in the long run.

[BillyJoe]

So, based on the data, what, if anything, will you change in your play?

[Tedlark]

  So spx would you agree that, in the long term, the payback% favors the house?

[shadowman]

Assuming you are playing close to optimum strategy these results clearly are outside the statistical bounds for a fair game.

[Vman96]

Assuming you are playing close to optimum strategy these results clearly are outside the statistical bounds for a fair game.

Agreed. The results are DaBurglar-esque. Quit now; the game is rigged with the data as stated. If that is illegal in your area (i.e. you aren't playing in Washington state, New York, etc.?), you could start a crusade to get them in trouble if you'd like. Unfortunately, it would likely fail.

Does anyone here actually keep records that meet random expectations?

[spxChrome]

So, based on the data, what, if anything, will you change in your play?

Good question, and it brings up an interesting story... so last year I actually kept more details about quads at certain locations. In the past it was just quad totals not location specific. And I found that one casino was more in line with expectations than the others. 2 of which were way out of line and they happen to be right next to each other. The other casino is 50 miles in the other direction. So I started playing there more and quit going to the other casinos.

Here is the interesting part of the story. The casino that was paying more in line with what I would expect was really 2 casinos connected owned by the same group. 2 years ago they closed 1 one of the casinos but kept the hotel open and turned the casino floor into their new stage for concerts. Around the same time is when they changed all the chips in the poker machines. But the closed casino high limit room was not touched during the chip change because it was closed. It has 8 HL Poker Machines and about 50-60 $5-$100 slots machines. Well about 10+ months ago they decided to reopen just the High Limit section of this casino only on weekends. And you guessed it these are the machines that pay closer to what is average. This area is small and normally there are only 5-10 people playing cause most people are at the other casino. I met a HL $10-$25 VP player in there a couple of months ago and after seeing him there a few times he told me that he drives 3 hours to play in this section even though he is 5 minutes from 4 casinos. Because this section is the only place that he had any success over the past 2 years.

[olds442jetaway]

These posts and my own results are leading me to believe more and more that the vp machines have only a " partial "
RNG program since at least 2010. They are probably still within the allowable 85% or so returns. I haven't kept track of quad totals so far, but Royal totals for me and other players at Mohegan are way out of wack. I think I will begin keeping the quad totals. I have gone 5-7 hours playing 700 hands an hour on the average every 4 or 5 sessions without quads and that seems way out of the norm to me. I also have had a few sessions with 4 quads in an hour so I will just have to start keeping records like spx and report back at a later date. One thing I have noticed for sure like spx is many more quads other than deuces or Aces are coming in with one exception. Deuces and Aces come in quite often on job!!!!!

[ko king]

These posts and my own results are leading me to believe more and more that the vp machines have only a " partial "
RNG program since at least 2010. They are probably still within the allowable 85% or so returns. I haven't kept track of quad totals so far, but Royal totals for me and other players at Mohegan are way out of wack. I think I will begin keeping the quad totals. I have gone 5-7 hours playing 700 hands an hour on the average every 4 or 5 sessions without quads and that seems way out of the norm to me. I also have had a few sessions with 4 quads in an hour so I will just have to start keeping records like spx and report back at a later date. One thing I have noticed for sure like spx is many more quads other than deuces or Aces are coming in with one exception. Deuces and Aces come in quite often on job!!!!!
Reminds of a funny story that happened a couple of years back. While I was playing some DDB a guy who I had seen several times was playing one of the two machines in the whole place that paid 3,000 credits for quad dueces on Deuces Wild. After a while the guy ask me if I had ever seen Quad Deuces on that machine before because he had never hit them at this casino before. I told him I had hit them once at the $2 denom for $6K a while back. A little while later the guy taps me on the shoulder and points at his machine, dealt Quad Deuces, I said congratulations but when I looked a little closer I saw that he had switched to JOB, he cashed out the ticket without saying a word and I haven't seen that guy since. I can almost understand his frustration though because I was playing a while back I told myself to keep that suited 10 with tha Ace but I didn't, you guessed it, first three cards on the draw everything I needed to make the Royal, I went home also because it made my stomach turn.

[DaBurglar]

[QUOTE=shadowman] Assuming you are playing close to optimum strategy these results clearly are outside the statistical bounds for a fair game.

Agreed. The results are DaBurglar-esque. Quit now; the game is rigged with the data as stated. If that is illegal in your area (i.e. you aren't playing in Washington state, New York, etc.?), you could start a crusade to get them in trouble if you'd like. Unfortunately, it would likely fail.

Does anyone here actually keep records that meet random expectations?[/QUOTE]First off, nice to hear from shadowman....secondly, I like that word "daburglaresque"! Clearly, other people experience similar results to what I have  received in the last 3-4 years playing in AC.....I would like to know where, AND WHAT CASINOS, SPXCHROME achieved all these results in......can you tell us?to answer the last question, about anyone keeping records that are close to what you'd expect from a true RNG statistical distribution, the answer is........YESSSSS!From 1999 (or slightly before that) thru 2005, my play in and around Las Vegas and Reno was almost EXACTLY what you'd expect for long term RNG results....in fact several years were profitable...not excessively profitable, but well on the positive side, and I am not talking about using any phony tactics where you start lumping in comps and free play and all those tricks.......I was straight up on the plus side in my play......of course, keep in mind, Vegas during this time had many many good paytables and several games over 100% so that must be kept in mind when comparing.2006 and 2007, my last two really big years in Vegas, were not profitable, were still better than any year I have had since, in AC or elsewhere.   But clearly, starting especially in 2007 when the economy tanked, paytables dried up and the games just started EATING money....this has not changed or stopped since that time.

[Tedlark]

Excellent post DaBurglar.