A year in Quads - 2013

[DaBurglar]

  Have you considered the fact that players also got better over time?

I really wished I gambled harder in online poker around 2005/2006. Games were jokes back then vs. what they were in 2011. I don't even want to imagine online poker now. I'd probably get my butt kicked for sure.I cannot figure out what is going on with the rest of this thread, whether other people (besides T E D L A R K ) are now upset with me or my writing "style", but I will say that this comment by VMAN is 100% spot on with regards the game of Poker in general, whether its on-line or LIVE play inside casinos.....There are now So many books, websites and other resources such that anybody with the time and money can quickly become a strong, informed and smart Poker player in a very short period of time......and it continues to happen in ever-increasing frequency across the entire WORLD.In the mid 1990s through 2003, Poker (especially No limit Holdem) was a tiny part of the overall casino scene.....a small exclusive "clique" of players comprised the playing community and these guys dominated what tournaments and events existed back then....the game slowly grew in popularity until 2003, when Chris "degenerate gambler" Moneymaker splashed onto the scene and won the World Series, showcased on ESPN.....and BOOM!    Poker took off, especially online (which is how Moneymaker won his entry into the World Series.)So now, in today's Poker scene, with so many players basically having such skill and knowledge, what ends up deciding most tourney and live poker events, is not skill but LUCK.....since the playing field is so "level", the only factor that is NOT within everyones' control is the luck factor.In a roundabout way, the same process is underway with our beloved VIDEO POKER game(s).

[BillyJoe]

[QUOTE=Vman96] 
Have you considered the fact that players also got better over time?

I really wished I gambled harder in online poker around 2005/2006. Games were jokes back then vs. what they were in 2011. I don't even want to imagine online poker now. I'd probably get my butt kicked for sure.

So now, in today's Poker scene, with so many players basically having such skill and knowledge, what ends up deciding most tourney and live poker events, is not skill but LUCK.....since the playing field is so "level", the only factor that is NOT within everyones' control is the luck factor.

In a roundabout way, the same process is underway with our beloved VIDEO POKER game(s).
[/QUOTE]
Burglar, I will accept that premise as it applies to live poker. That is one of the reasons that I do not play, except for tournaments. I would get sliced and diced, since I do not have the skills.
 
I take exception, though, with you carrying that same rationale to VP. Since we are playing against a machine, and not each other, increased knowledge and skill should INCREASE our returns. The 'luck' factor has not changed. What is being observed by many, however, is that returns are DIMINISHING.

[olds442jetaway]

Let's face it. We are all getting our butts kicked over time and especially during the last 5 years. I am discounting of course any value for comps, other free stuff, etc. I hope I have time for this. My plan is to play the same game on this site with the same paytable as Mohegan Sun. I can do that on Deuces wild, job etc. I will try and keep track of Royals, premium hands, quads on job, and deuces quads on deuces wild. This may take 6 months or so to have a valid sample. So assuming the program for this site is 100% pure RNG, the results of play here and play at the casino should be similar. If what I suspect happens, and the casino returns are much lower,.....well you know the " rest of the story ". PS....happy and healthy St. Patrick's Day to all.

[BillyJoe]

Let's face it. We are all getting our butts kicked over time and especially during the last 5 years. I am discounting of course any value for comps, other free stuff, etc. I hope I have time for this. My plan is to play the same game on this site with the same paytable as Mohegan Sun. I can do that on Deuces wild, job etc. I will try and keep track of Royals, premium hands, quads on job, and deuces quads on deuces wild. This may take 6 months or so to have a valid sample. So assuming the program for this site is 100% pure RNG, the results of play here and play at the casino should be similar. If what I suspect happens, and the casino returns are much lower,.....well you know the " rest of the story ". PS....happy and healthy St. Patrick's Day to all.
Another option for you, Olds, is to purchase (yuck) a copy of Dancer's "Video Poker for Winners". There used to be a discount for it from this site for it's purchase, but I am not sure if it still exists.
 
VPW allows you to set any game at any paytable, and of course, will also show your errors in playing.

[olds442jetaway]

I've been thinking about that too. Right now, besides this site, I have in my computer the Frugal video poker program that allows you to save your game and continue at a later time. It also has warnings and paytable options.

[pokerforme]

I know for a fact the skill of the other players was not my problem although poker trackers and other software did impact my bottom line. When you look as hard as I did for the leak in my game and come up with 1-3 outers as the problem then you have a different issue to deal with. In the early years I believe I was one of the few who developed my own method for tracking players, as time went on they made programs that did it for you with 100% accuracy with instant results. You did not even have to see hole cards or even play vs them to get the info---I am pretty sure that was about 25% of the difference. The real difference I saw in results were directly related to statistical improbabilities. It did not help that so many people were teaming at cash games and everyone shoved knowing eventually they would get you. I lost with all my money in ahead by unreal odds over and over to dumb players because the RNG's changed. When you lose 2 times in one day to runner runner quads when you flopped trip aces (AA) vs (44) and (77) you wonder what the heck but assure yourself eventually the guy cant turn and river quads on you. I never minded the suckouts and lucky players because eventually you win when you are 95%+ all the time. At some point the suckouts overcame the odds and I took my VERY large profit margin and ran...well actually took a break and was reading up on other games besides hold em that were still easy to find a edge on. Lucky for me I had most my money out before black Friday by pure accident. I don't miss any of it. I invested a few hundred and made a lot. Lucky for me I never had to reinvest and took a break at the perfect time, the money that got caught in all the govt and site issues I took from people who did not understand long term odds. So overall I pushed pause at the perfect time by accident. My losses were other peoples money and minor compaired to what I took out over 5 years. I never lost a dime unless you count what was lost to black Friday---I don't.

[Tedlark]

  Another poster here wrote of Chris Moneymaker being a degenerate gambler and Chris himself mentioned this in the movie made about Black Friday. When you see the other professional poker players, the: Helmuth's and Negranau's; the Matesow's and the Laak's, you see that they ALL make prop bets on everything. This would make them ALL degenerate gamblers in my mind and not just Moneymaker. The people who watch these top tier players on television and see the lifestyle that is portrayed on television don't actually see how much work these players put in online as well.

[Vman96]

  Another poster here wrote of Chris Moneymaker being a degenerate gambler and Chris himself mentioned this in the movie made about Black Friday. When you see the other professional poker players, the: Helmuth's and Negranau's; the Matesow's and the Laak's, you see that they ALL make prop bets on everything. This would make them ALL degenerate gamblers in my mind and not just Moneymaker. The people who watch these top tier players on television and see the lifestyle that is portrayed on television don't actually see how much work these players put in online as well.

Hellmuth has his moments with VP addiction too. In March 2012, he was at River City in St. Louis playing in the Heartland Poker Tour. He played in the event, busted early, and was advised fellow poker pro, the much less successful Allen Kessler, to play 9/6 JoB Quick Quads for 10-play dollars there, as it is one of the best machines River City has. This is true, and Phil got off to a decent start getting dealt quad Aces for $2300. But playing at $60/spin, variance caught up, and he was playing most of that Sunday night on it. I think he ended up low 5 digits in the hole. He's also hit a dealt Royal for $100k.



Hellmuth can afford a loss of $10,000 obv, but it sounded like a moment of not being able to "quit, and fight another day".

[pokerforme]

Wow sick picture, never heard that before about Hellmuth. I watched a lot of "pros" play online, was never all that impressed. The grinders climbing the ladder that worked up to those levels and were there to work over those guys always kept me more interested. One day was watching a HU table wasn't that big of blinds maybe 50/100 but both guys were really stacked...the normal back and forth with ALOT of smack talk....pro raking the grinder over the coals a little....push push push with everything taking every blind etc...grinder is like F it lets go.....ends up calling heavy handed pre flop with like 27....flop 27A, check by the "pro" check by grinder turns a 7 pro bets like pot guys smooths em....river like k or a q pro half pots dude min raises pro pushes all in, the talk was for like 10 minutes about proper play with grinder doing the "lol rebuy". Was great.

[Tedlark]

  Huck Seed also hit a vp machine for a bundle, same scenario as Hellmuth.