The Overall State of things in General

[olds442jetaway]

[QUOTE=olds442jetaway]stabbed myself with the knitting needle, tripped over the latch hook rug, caught some butterfiles, but had to release them so they could pollinate the plants on the deck, and square dancing.....uh...not for me...The other hobbies while fun for awhile, just seem to collect dust over time. So that leaves video poker and beautiful women ( woman in my case). Wife are you are you listening...
   Knit one pearl two and swing your partner round n round; olds you are a true Rennaisance man. Plus you can probably rebuild a big block with your eyes closed while painting a fender at the same time. [/QUOTE]
       Funny you should say that Ted. Years ago, I actually did that on my 68 Charger. Wasn't quite that dramatic though. Only had to do the top end and heat riser, and paint one side of the car. Did have a beer in one hand though and never spilled a drop. . Only used laquer, but never even thought to wear a mask.

[shinyvegas]

I'm not sure of what kind of rivalry exists within these forums. But I have to chime in and say I agree with OP. I can only speak to Vegas play as I've been a local since '85.

VP machines in Vegas have definitely dropped as far as payouts go. I'm speaking as to both size of the jackpots and frequency. I play routinely at GVR, Red Rock, and South Point. But my style of play is consistent so it makes for a good benchmark. Dealt hands (4 of a kind) are much, much more uncommon. Royals are less common.

What's my gauge? Easy. My W2Gs. I've gone from an average of having to claim $30K yearly to $8K. That's a significant drop.

Now I'm no fool. Gambling is gambling and my lower winnings can be attributed to a turn in my luck. But I watch other players too. I notice the double blinking lights. And there's a lot less signing going on from what I can observe.

[olds442jetaway]

7 W-2Gs last year and only 1 for exactly 1200- so far this year. Also total hours of play and coin in are up this year too, but that is about to reverse course big time.

[onemoretry]

Dealt hands (4 of a kind) are much, much more uncommon.

The frequency on dealt quads "should" be one in 4165.

What do you think the "much, much more uncommon" one is?

[Tedlark]

When I play in Las Vegas I haven't seen a drop in play. I can't remember the last time I failed to hit a royal or AWAK less than twice during a 4 day stay. My last trip I hit 4 royals and AWAK 2 times.

[onemoretry]

In Vegas, late January - early February this year, I had five royals in two weeks, on a total play of around 150000-160000 hands. My wife had three, giving us a total of eight.

[olds442jetaway]

This could be something happening at various casinos in the East Coast. I surveyed dozens of regulars and nobody is averaging less than 1 in 100,000 hands. Granted this is all at one casino in Ct. Many players are hitting Aces quads quite regularly however, which can pay the same as the Royal with the kicker on some games. No one however, that goes between 1 and 5 times a week, hasn't hit a Royal since last September like me. If it goes a little longer, the probability of that happening will be the same as hitting the lottery. I think it is already about 1 in 100,000 or close to it. I have been hitting deuces quads in about the right time frames, and dealt quads about right also. It is just the Royals not hitting for me. Also the premium quads seem to hit way more on the job game, joker kings, or deuces wild where it doesn't matter.

[BillyJoe]

I think that measuring 'success' by the number of RFs being caught is not a good approach to evaluating the game. VP is a game of 'independent trials', meaning that what happened before has NO bearing on what happens next. The odds of an RF on hand 10,000 are the same odds as they were on hand one. 
 
Let's face it - it is darn hard to get a lot of good paying hands in one gaming session playing VP. The mathematics of the game just does not support continued success.
 
Now, if we could just figure out how to 'edge sort' the cards in VP like Phil Ivey did in mini-Baccarat, then we would have something.  

[olds442jetaway]

Yes odds are the same, but probability is a different animal. In my case, that animal is a snail.

[onemoretry]

Yes odds are the same, but probability is a different animal
Isn't probability just a different way of expressing the odds?