Need advice

[alr849]

I have a "friend" that wants to be an "advantage player", like most of you are. He has a few questions.
 
But first, since +100 % machines are hard to find anymore, the most he figures he can "make" a machine is +100 %.
 
If he plays more then the  average casino goer, say once a week.
 
And if he plays for 7 hours a day, at 500 hands per hour.
 
And if he sticks to quarters only, again like most players. 
 
How much "per hour" can he expect to make after all that playing ?
 
And can he supplement his pension after all these hours on the 100 % vp machines ? 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

[Webman]

How terrible is his pension? 

[alr849]

It's a good pension !
 
But he would like to buy his wife a lot of nice gifts from his "advantage play".
 
I mean after all, that's about 400 hours on a 100 % machine !
 
How many weeks before he can buy her the Rolex she wants ?

[Webman]

Depends on how lucky he is. I don't suggest replacing a firm pension with gambling, which inherently involves risk.  That's not a smart move with any strategy.Perhaps your best bet is an advantage play simulator that not only gives you expected returns but also the "risk of ruin" and chances of winning big.  There are a wide range of potential outcomes that a person can experience.  Averaged out over many many hands and many many individuals, I believe that "playing the math" will give a better return than any other strategy out there.  In other words, you could play another strategy and try to win big, but for every person that wins big on that strategy there will be more people that lose big than by playing the numbers, which also gives you a chance to win big and a better overall expected return.If you have numbers to back up a greater expected return using another strategy I would love to see them and we could both make a lot of money. But these questions about how much he can make given that much play and how long until he wins big are clearly up to chance.He could probably hit a royal sooner by only ever holding face cards and throwing anything else away.  But his odds of losing far more faster go up significantly.  That is an extreme example of any strategy that deviates from a mathematically perfect one. Many people that play the math deviate from the strategy at times in order to try to win more.  That's taking a chance, and it could pay off or not.I have yet to see evidence of a strategy that pays a better expected return than the ones touted on software such as Video Poker for Winners. Any deviation from the mathematical strategy would result in lesser returns spread over the same number of hands and individuals. It will pay of for some but will end up worse for more.

[alr849]

I must be entering it wrong because I keep coming up with " ZERO". He will make ZERO dollars ( over the long haul ) playing a 100 % machine , one day a week, 52 weeks, seven hours a day, 500 hands per hour.
 
Is that what advantage play is about ?
 
And what if he only plays machines that are 99.6 % ????

[shadowman]

100% means break even. Hopefully, there is an enjoyment factor or he shouldn't play period. In addition, he probably will qualify for lots of comps which is all that many people are looking for.
As I've mentioned on this forum several times before, the bigger the edge the better the expectation. I like to have a minimum of .5% edge (100.5%) for my play. In most cases I play with a 1% or greater edge and I DO supplement my persion each and every year. 
 
Now, I suspect you already know that 100% is break even so I can only wonder what is your point? It's certainly better then 99% or 98% or worse, so once again, what is your point?

[oej719]

It's a good pension !
 
But he would like to buy his wife a lot of nice gifts from his "advantage play".
 
I mean after all, that's about 400 hours on a 100 % machine !
 
How many weeks before he can buy her the Rolex she wants ?

I suggest he write columns and blogs and books from ideas he gets from vp forums and then sell them to novices as a sure fire way to win. And most women don't need fancy gifts all the time if their man just stays sober and doesn't head to a casino everyday. Being gone so much ... well when the cats away the nice will play, if you know what I mean.
Keep the lady in the workforce as long as you can. that way her Soc sec check will be bigger for you to gamble and drink with.
Sort of like Little Red Ridinghood where the bad drunk wolf dresses up in sheep clothes. IT IS STILL A WOLF.

You can put lipstick on a pig and it is still a pig.
Oink Oink

[Webman]

I must be entering it wrong because I keep coming up with
" ZERO". He will make ZERO dollars ( over the long haul ) playing a 100
% machine , one day a week, 52 weeks, seven hours a day, 500 hands per
hour.





Yes, you are punching it in wrong. 





That would be 182,000 hands. 
There is a wide distribution of where he could end up. On a 100% machine with no slot club benefits or comps the most likely place is right where you started (breaking even) and moving away from this center in a bell curve are the other possibilities, ranging from filthy rich (low percentage) to filthy poor (low percentage). The highest percentage of people will end up near center and a good many will be above or below a small amount.  The further from center you go, the fewer people there will be.By this point you would have fed a lot of coin into the machine so if you were playing a slot club card or receiving other comps they would likely get pretty healthy with 182,000 hands played. It's up to your friend to determine the value of those to him.You will find a similar bell curve resulting from any strategy. I do not think there is a strategy out there that can shift the curve in the favor of a majority of players.But as was asked by someone else... what is your point exactly?  That playing a 100% machine the average person isn't going to be wealthy?  Well, I think the math demonstrates that clearly.  Some will win heavily but only a small percentage. The largest group of players would break even.So if there is another point, it would be good to hear it.  I know you have spoken of the Fa La La La La.... La la la la strategy in the past so my hunch is that you are suggesting that might be a better option.  Well, then let's have an example of a play that differs from the mathematical strategy and I can simulate it 182,000 times and we will see which method has the better return.

[oej719]

Nice Webman. I could not have said it better myself.

[bigboy]

[QUOTE=alr849] It's a good pension !

But he would like to buy his wife a lot of nice gifts from his "advantage play".
I mean after all, that's about 400 hours on a 100 % machine !
How many weeks before he can buy her the Rolex she wants ?
I suggest he write columns and blogs and books from ideas he gets from vp forums and then sell them to novices as a sure fire way to win. And most women don't need fancy gifts all the time if their man just stays sober and doesn't head to a casino everyday. Being gone so much ... well when the cats away the nice will play, if you know what I mean.
Keep the lady in the workforce as long as you can. that way her Soc sec check will be bigger for you to gamble and drink with.
Sort of like Little Red Ridinghood where the bad drunk wolf dresses up in sheep clothes. IT IS STILL A WOLF.

You can put lipstick on a pig and it is still a pig.
Oink Oink[/QUOTE]
 
Yummy, Bacon. Us lowlife v.p. players love that artery clogging pig scrap!