I would like to try this but.......

[olds442jetaway]

I would like to play 25/15/9/4/4/ Deuces Wild with a 1,000 dollar budget on a quarter game using the following method, but am not sure of the probability of ruin or even if it is possible to figure it out. I understand that it could take several sessions and I would intend to pick up where I left at the last session. Here goes.
     Starting with 5 coins in, I would play at that level until my next bet would not make me be even even if the Deuces quads hit. At that point I would increase my bet to whatever amount I needed to be even if Deuces quads hit. To make it even more complicated to figure out, anytime my credit balance met or exceeded my original 1,000 starting amount, I would return to betting 5 quarters until the above scenario forced a bet per hand increase.
     I have a feeling I could play a long time this way, but don't know roughly how long or how many hands before my 1k would be wiped out.
     If and when a Royal hits, I would quit for the day or simply begin all over again as if I just walked into the casino. My gut feeling tells me that I could play many tens of thousands of hands this way before being ruined, but it is simply a guess. Also it would be good to know the probability of ruin assuming the Royal never does come in. That would probably be my luck so I won't be counting on it. Any help in figuring this out is appreciated. Rough estimates OK.

[alpax]

I will think about this but I quickly wanted to say Mohegan Sun allows for variable 1 to 25 credits on their machines where a minimum 5 credit bet will pay 800 to 1 for a natural RF. Most of us do not have such a machine and must change denominations

[Vman96]

Well the simple answer is, the probability of ruin is 100% without a specific hand limit. Did you have a hand limit in mind? Or did you want to know the "average" amount of hands you would last?

I am going to go to Tunica this weekend, so forget me answering this soon. But I might be able to do it, as I find this question interesting also. If you dip down to $750, you were just going to up to 6 quarters because you have that option available right? If you dip below $700, you go to 7 quarters, etc...

Also any data I give you will assume random single line games of course. So if this trial gives you a huge royal droughts like you've have dealt with, my estimated results will make you very disappointed.   

[alpax]

I agree with Vman, if you really want to break even with a Quad Deuces win, since it pays 200 to 1

When your bankroll dips below 3000 ($750), you must increase your bet by 1. If you win and get out of the threshold, you could go back to betting 5.

3000 - 6 credit bet
2800 - 7 credit bet
2600 - 8 credit bet
2400 - 9 credit bet
to all the way
200 - 20 credit bet

I know not everyone is as lucky as FloridaPhil, but with the odds of quad deuces being 1 in 5000, the $1000 credit bankroll might suffice.

I've read on casino city times where you need 1800 quarter credits ($450) to have a 95% chance at playing 5000 Jacks Or Better hands at max 5 credit bet. I think that Airport Deuces just has slightly higher variance, so you might be able to make it through, but no guarantees on royals. Once you bet 6 credits, a natural royal will produce a W2G amount.

[olds442jetaway]

Well the simple answer is, the probability of ruin is 100% without a specific hand limit. Did you have a hand limit in mind? Or did you want to know the "average" amount of hands you would last?

I am going to go to Tunica this weekend, so forget me answering this soon. But I might be able to do it, as I find this question interesting also. If you dip down to $750, you were just going to up to 6 quarters because you have that option available right? If you dip below $700, you go to 7 quarters, etc...

Also any data I give you will assume random single line games of course. So if this trial gives you a huge royal droughts like you've have dealt with, my estimated results will make you very disappointed.   

     First of all, best of luck at Tunica. I must owe you at least 48 beers by now, so just keep track for when you make it up to Mohegan some day. The average number of hands to last will be fine and you have the plan of going to 6 then 7 etc exactly like my plan. I know without the Royal, I will probably be disappointed, but would like to know anyway. If Tunica has 9/6 TDB, give it a shot for me. If it doesn't work out, just add that to the beer list. No rush on getting back to me. Thanks and have a great time.

[olds442jetaway]

I agree with Vman, if you really want to break even with a Quad Deuces win, since it pays 200 to 1

When your bankroll dips below 3000 ($750), you must increase your bet by 1. If you win and get out of the threshold, you could go back to betting 5.

3000 - 6 credit bet
2800 - 7 credit bet
2600 - 8 credit bet
2400 - 9 credit bet
to all the way
200 - 20 credit bet

I know not everyone is as lucky as FloridaPhil, but with the odds of quad deuces being 1 in 5000, the $1000 credit bankroll might suffice.

I've read on casino city times where you need 1800 quarter credits ($450) to have a 95% chance at playing 5000 Jacks Or Better hands at max 5 credit bet. I think that Airport Deuces just has slightly higher variance, so you might be able to make it through, but no guarantees on royals. Once you bet 6 credits, a natural royal will produce a W2G amount.
     Yep. That is the plan. I think the hard part to figure out is how going back to 5 credits affects the staying power. You could get some nice hits of a run of quads, wild royals, or 5 of a kinds close together, that could keep you at or near a bet of 5 credits for some time. I have also had runs of 40 dud hands on Deuces Wild, so that unfortunately would up my bet and possibly cause me to get wiped out sooner if the deuces quads don't arrive. I do want to try it though. I seem to be able to play a long time on this game even at the 5 level before you lose 300 bucks or so.

[Rat Terrier]

Play the game on this site, but keep track of your hands on a sheet of paper. Make your bets on paper, keeping track of amount bet, amount won, and bankroll balance.

Before forming an opinion, I would play a total of 10 sessions, 400 hands/session, starting over after each session. 400 hands = 1 hour of play.

I think you will find that the bankroll would disappear much faster than you think, because at some point you will reach the max. coins that you can bet limit.

Anyway, if you try it on paper. You will have fun at no expense. Good luck.

[olds442jetaway]

Not a bad idea. I wish there was a program that allowed bets over 5 credits, but I haven't found one yet. The bet limit may not be an issue at Mohegan Sun though, because the machines allow up to 25 credits bet and also have options within the machines for a fifty cent bet as well as dollar bets and both allow up to 25 units bet. Not that I would be betting twenty five bucks a hand. I think the 1k bankroll would disappear before I got near that level.

[olds442jetaway]

Will have to wait until tonight or tomorrow morning to try it out. Couldn't get the machines I wanted yesterday or Friday night. Way too crowded. Paid the price too by not having anything specific to stick with.

[shadowman]

Increasing your bet as you lose increases the variance. This means you can win more sessions but when you do lose you lose it faster.