A closer look...

[alpax]

It took a longer time than necessary and hard experiences to learn losses are the key focus in a negative expectation game which is just about every game at the casino, so I do agree an approach to mitigate losses such as this progressive system and learning strategy to minimize house edge is more effective than betting big and trying to win big.

The player only wins against if they play with beginners luck and win big very early, then never play again. Otherwise you have to be like Dancer and find various exploits and take advantage of them to the casino.

Probably no one person will be able to play for 100 years, requires more than one player combined, but I ran the cheap poker strategy simulation for 100 years worth on $300 bankroll for 52 trips to get a better idea how things even out, the individual results were too sporadic. Took 7 minutes to execute 100 years of playing.

Going for the $5000 Quad Deuces or the elusive $20000 Royal flush, it is best to attempt the pot shots for it. To go from $1 single coin to $5 max coin (step up from quarter-low to $1-high) hitting a royal, it happened just 3 or 4 times in 100 years. You only get to play max bet high denomination about 0.6-0.7% of the time.

On Airport Deuces, the averages were $2000 loss per year, and 1 in 4.55 odds that you convert a $20 bill into a $50+ cash out ticket

On Fooler Deuces, the losses were about $3500 a year, with 1 in 5.42 odds that you convert a $20 bill into a $50+ cash out ticket.

The pot shots feel like playing those state lottery scratch-offs at better odds but without the million dollar prize (nearly impossible odds).

Having access to the better paying paytables is crucial. I would do 3 pot shots, 1 for every $100 I lose from playing single quarters. If anyone can find a way to use up $2000-$4000 casino comps and the bounce back mailers offered throughout the year, they can play for nearly free.

[Vman96]

What program did you use to run these sims? Or is this your own code?

[alpax]

What program did you use to run these sims? Or is this your own code?

I do not perform simulation on actual video poker play, I wrote a basic script that picks out a random number from 1 to 19.9 trillion and determines the hand outcome by number ranges from the paytables I see from WizardOfOdds strategy maker.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-pok ... 200-d-250/

There are 431,221,716 combinations for Royal Flush so any number generated from 1 to 431221716 will be considered a Royal Flush hit. There 3,737,943,732 combintations for Quad Deuces so any number generated from 431221717 and 4169165448 will be considered a Quad Deuces hit and so on.

I used logic operators to start with 80 credits and loop through until the balance is 0 or hit 200 credits for a cash out, and the outcome of each hand will determine the bet single coin/max coin quarters or dollars. Depending on the bet, there are 4 different number range sets to evaluate.

I was curious to see how the cheap strategy works on paper in the long run, but it turns out the pot shots make up for Phil's positive bankroll for the year.

[FloridaPhil]

Now that I think about it, you are correct in your assessment of the potshots being responsible for most of my big wins over the last year.  For example, the day I was dealt the $4,000 Royal, I was having one of those days when everything went right.  I was playing DDB quarters and quads were popping up all over the place.  It was so crazy, I switched to max coin dollars (potshot) and was dealt the Royal within 5 minutes of doing so.  The bounty continued for an hour after that and I hit two sets of quad aces for $800 each.   In Colorado last spring I hit a $1,000 Royal playing the cheap system as described.  All the rest were deuces wild shots on the $1 & $5 machines.   I like the odds of hitting quad deuces on the big machines.  After all, one happens on average once a day on every machine in the casino.  Even if you don't hit a quad deuce, you occasionally win a few hundred dollars.  Hoping for a royal is way out there, but it does happen. You could conclude that the cheap strategy is allowing me to tread water between potshots.  I agree I have been lucky, but the potshots are proving to be pretty profitable. Using the cheap strategy with a $300 budget, I can play all day, taking a few potshots and normally go home with some money in my pocket.  You actually could come up with the same results if you didn't play at all except for a $20 potshot once an hour, but you wouldn't have as much fun. This has been a great discussion and I think I now have a better idea what's happening.  Thanks!
 

[Vman96]

[QUOTE=Vman96] What program did you use to run these sims? Or is this your own code?

I do not perform simulation on actual video poker play, I wrote a basic script that picks out a random number from 1 to 19.9 trillion and determines the hand outcome by number ranges from the paytables I see from WizardOfOdds strategy maker.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-pok ... 200-d-250/

There are 431,221,716 combinations for Royal Flush so any number generated from 1 to 431221716 will be considered a Royal Flush hit. There 3,737,943,732 combintations for Quad Deuces so any number generated from 431221717 and 4169165448 will be considered a Quad Deuces hit and so on.

I used logic operators to start with 80 credits and loop through until the balance is 0 or hit 200 credits for a cash out, and the outcome of each hand will determine the bet single coin/max coin quarters or dollars. Depending on the bet, there are 4 different number range sets to evaluate.

I was curious to see how the cheap strategy works on paper in the long run, but it turns out the pot shots make up for Phil's positive bankroll for the year.[/QUOTE]

Your program probably works better than mine does which does the same thing in principle, which works well in single line. I just modified some R code for it that was originally written at 2+2 poker for simulating the World Series of Poker Main Event over 100 years.

Your results alpax read roughly what I suspected. Phil is on the luckier end of things. Of course that says more than a lot of this forum right now...

[wildman49]

  It doesn't matter if you play 5 cents a hand or $100, it's all the same game.   You pay your money and you decide how much you are willing to pay to play.  I agree 100% with that one Phil.I been playing the system on the 20 coin machines. The two things I like is playing 5 coins then max after a flush that pays 15 coins in DW lets me hit max more often. Also with five coin bet you win $200 for the royal on 5 cent five coins in or $1000 for the 25 cent five coin bet. Not crazy about $12.50 or $62.50 as I do hit a RF about every 40,000 hands or so. The pay tables are not as good but when/if the royal hits to me should make up the lower payout table.

[alpax]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhil]  It doesn't matter if you play 5 cents a hand or $100, it's all the same game.   You pay your money and you decide how much you are willing to pay to play.  I agree 100% with that one Phil.I been playing the system on the 20 coin machines. The two things I like is playing 5 coins then max after a flush that pays 15 coins in DW lets me hit max more often. Also with five coin bet you win $200 for the royal on 5 cent five coins in or $1000 for the 25 cent five coin bet. Not crazy about $12.50 or $62.50 as I do hit a RF about every 40,000 hands or so. The pay tables are not as good but when/if the royal hits to me should make up the lower payout table.[/QUOTE]

I think the strategy calls for the MAX bet after a 4 credit win, the Full House and 4 of a Kind.

[alpax]

[QUOTE=alpax] [QUOTE=Vman96] What program did you use to run these sims? Or is this your own code?

I do not perform simulation on actual video poker play, I wrote a basic script that picks out a random number from 1 to 19.9 trillion and determines the hand outcome by number ranges from the paytables I see from WizardOfOdds strategy maker.

http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-pok ... 200-d-250/

There are 431,221,716 combinations for Royal Flush so any number generated from 1 to 431221716 will be considered a Royal Flush hit. There 3,737,943,732 combintations for Quad Deuces so any number generated from 431221717 and 4169165448 will be considered a Quad Deuces hit and so on.

I used logic operators to start with 80 credits and loop through until the balance is 0 or hit 200 credits for a cash out, and the outcome of each hand will determine the bet single coin/max coin quarters or dollars. Depending on the bet, there are 4 different number range sets to evaluate.

I was curious to see how the cheap strategy works on paper in the long run, but it turns out the pot shots make up for Phil's positive bankroll for the year.[/QUOTE]

Your program probably works better than mine does which does the same thing in principle, which works well in single line. I just modified some R code for it that was originally written at 2+2 poker for simulating the World Series of Poker Main Event over 100 years.

Your results alpax read roughly what I suspected. Phil is on the luckier end of things. Of course that says more than a lot of this forum right now... [/QUOTE]

If the Video Poker game on WizardOfOdds website allowed for customization, that would be the dream simulator to use as it shows actual VP play, the draws, the best holds, and the outcome. It only allows for 1000 credits for the balance and would require restarting if the balance reached 0.

Fortunately Phil's strategy is all single line based, would be harder to do Dreamcard or Super Times Pay. The strategy calculator exhausts 19.9 trillion outcomes, so assigning a number and randomly drawing it would be the same; it would also save time to perform thousands or millions of hands.

I am making sure the core part of the simulation part is working as well as to set up an easier to use interface before I can make it available to you guys for you guys to plug in numbers and such to possibly tweak the strategy. It is Windows OS shell command prompt based and 100% guarantee no malware of any kind.

[alpax]

<FONT size=2 face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Now that I think about it, you are correct in your assessment of the potshots being responsible for most of my big wins over the last year.  For example, the day I was dealt the $4,000 Royal, I was having one of those days when everything went right.  I was playing DDB quarters and quads were popping up all over the place.  It was so crazy, I switched to max coin dollars (potshot) and was dealt the Royal within 5 minutes of doing so.  The bounty continued for an hour after that and I hit two sets of quad aces for $800 each.   In Colorado last spring I hit a $1,000 Royal playing the cheap system as described.  All the rest were deuces wild shots on the $1 & $5 machines.   I like the odds of hitting quad deuces on the big machines.  After all, one happens on average once a day on every machine in the casino.  Even if you don't hit a quad deuce, you occasionally win a few hundred dollars.  Hoping for a royal is way out there, but it does happen. You could conclude that the cheap strategy is allowing me to tread water between potshots.  I agree I have been lucky, but the potshots are proving to be pretty profitable. Using the cheap strategy with a $300 budget, I can play all day, taking a few potshots and normally go home with some money in my pocket.  You actually could come up with the same results if you didn't play at all except for a $20 potshot once an hour, but you wouldn't have as much fun. This has been a great discussion and I think I now have a better idea what's happening.  Thanks!
<FONT size=2 face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"> 

The cheap strategy which allows for much more play time is already a winner in itself while saving money each year over the traditional MAX coin play. Pot shots are good when it hits to salvage some of the bad days, but it should not be attempted to over come yearly losses. What they both have in common is the money management it provides.

If $200 is spent on 10 pot shots, at 10% odds, one of the pot shots is a cashout ticket worth at least $100. On average session, 3 of the 15 $20 bills ($300 bankroll) will be cash out tickets, if each are worth at least $50, you would have on an average day at least $150, while playing about 5000 hands of video poker.

I have done more comparisons to the strategy vs the MAX bet play all the time to put doubts away form this strategy. The lower the expected return paytable, the more beneficial it gets. I used 25 million hands as a gauge for 100 years of MAX bet play compared to 100 years of 52 weeks with $300 (15 $20 sessions)

1. NSU Deuces - Both approaches resulted is similar losses of about $1000 a year, sometimes the cheap strategy losses were at $750-800, but consistently it allows for 16,000 more hand plays, the MAX strategy puts in more coin-in for more comps from the casino.

2) Airport Deuces - The cheap strategy allows for 16,000 more hand plays a year with losses roughly $1900-$2100 a year. The MAX bet strategy will lose about $2900-$3100 a year, an average difference of $1000 per year.

3) Fooler Deuces - The cheap strategy loses $3500 per year, but it provides the greatest benefit as playing MAX bet on this paytable shows $7700-$7900 loss per year, that is roughly double the losses.

I totally agree there is two ways to approach the game. (1) Professionally making as much money as possible by finding exploits to take advantage over the casino or to find over 100% positive expectation games with or without progressives, (2) For Recreational purposes, since there is no escaping losses, to lose as least as possible if playing the game for the long term (years and years).

[Vman96]

I've modified my code for STP (single line only, which I actually play a lot), it just calls for the RNG twice. Once for the hand result, and once for the multiplier. In regular STP, they're independent events. In Double STP, you call the RNG three times, once for the hand result, and twice for the multipliers. And I had to add a bit of extra code/debugging to deal with my dream scenario, a dealt royal with any awarded deal multiplier being augmented to 20X.   That rule definitely makes the sims very hard to converge in average return.