4 aces before the draw not playing ddb

[olds442jetaway]

I refuse to open that old Royalless post again spx, just figured I'd mention I'm on my way again. 200k hands and counting. Aces quads on the other hand come up right about on schedule as long as you are playing job. . In fact, the other night, I had 3 aces quads in the session 2 on job and 1 on deuces without the deuces of course.

[5ofakind4000]

Before this hand my last 6 hits of four aces have been getting two dealt and getting the next two on the draw. It seems like its been forever since I got three and hit the 4th on the draw

[DaBurglar]

I've kept track fairly close over the last 4-5 months, noting when I have 3 of a kind and going for the fourth "whatever", and also when I catch quads either on the deal or with one or two to a draw.   With the exception of my recent 5 day foray to vegas, most of this action is in AC.   For whatever reason, over 75% of the quads I am "catching"  are when I am dealt quads or draw with only a single (ace or face card), or a pair of whatever.    My last outing to Vegas saw me go 2 for 119 when drawing with 3 of a kind (and both hits on the 3 of a kind happened at Golden Nugget within one hour of each other....)      Atlantic City over the past summer through this past halloween was similar......there must be some logical mathematical reason behind this observation that several of us players are making about catching quads......

[BillyJoe]

I've kept track fairly close over the last 4-5 months, noting when I have 3 of a kind and going for the fourth "whatever", and also when I catch quads either on the deal or with one or two to a draw.   With the exception of my recent 5 day foray to Vegas, most of this action is in AC.   For whatever reason, over 75% of the quads I am "catching"  are when I am dealt quads or draw with only a single (ace or face card), or a pair of whatever.    My last outing to Vegas saw me go 2 for 119 when drawing with 3 of a kind (and both hits on the 3 of a kind happened at Golden Nugget within one hour of each other....)      Atlantic City over the past summer through this past Halloween was similar......there must be some logical mathematical reason behind this observation that several of us players are making about catching quads......


My logic would explain it as follows:

You have many more times when you are dealt either zero, one or two cards to a quad versus three cards to a quad. Therefore, you have significantly MORE OPPORTUNITIES to draw out that quad. It is the increased number of opportunities that tips the scales.

Still tough, though.

[DaBurglar]

  My logic would explain it as follows:

You have many more times when you are dealt either zero, one or two cards to a quad versus three cards to a quad. Therefore, you have significantly MORE OPPORTUNITIES to draw out that quad. It is the increased number of opportunities that tips the scales.

Still tough, though. That certainly explains part of the PERCEPTION related issues....but heads up analysis of each scenario still dictates that my 2 for 119 ratios (or 1 in 60) of catching the fourth card on a three of a kind deal sticks out like a sore thumb.....it does not SEEM that way off of the expected 1 in 47 straight ratio of a 52 card deck, but it is when you look at the long termOf course if i had caught just one more quad to go 3 out of 119, I'd have no point here, but that kinda is the point, isnt it???