Poisson Distribution - Royal Flushes

[Benford's Law]

Hey all,
      After playing nearly 500,000 hands on single-play <100% video poker over two years and never having gotten a royal....I finally hit one last night....whoopeee!   Seemed almost anticlimactic since it was way, way, WAY overdue!  (Played JoB, BP, DB, DDB, BPDlx, TBP+ at all denominations between 25c and $1 with rare sessions at $2 and $5)
      What are the chances of going through a drought of 10-12 cycles like this without a royal? (each cycle approx. 40,000 hands)
       I'm thinking about the Poisson distribution a bit here, as it says you really only have a slightly better than 60% chance of hitting a royal in a cycle with a small chance of two or more in a cycle.
       I'm just glad my royal drought is over;  I was seriously beginning to wonder if I was going to go to my grave without ever seeing one again.
~Benford's Law

[MikeA]

I feel your pain.  I mean REALLY...I FEEL YOUR PAIN!!!Hey all,
      After playing nearly 500,000 hands on single-play <100% video poker over two years and never having gotten a royal....I finally hit one last night....whoopeee!   Seemed almost anticlimactic since it was way, way, WAY overdue!  (Played JoB, BP, DB, DDB, BPDlx, TBP+ at all denominations between 25c and $1 with rare sessions at $2 and $5)
      What are the chances of going through a drought of 10-12 cycles like this without a royal? (each cycle approx. 40,000 hands)
       I'm thinking about the Poisson distribution a bit here, as it says you really only have a slightly better than 60% chance of hitting a royal in a cycle with a small chance of two or more in a cycle.
       I'm just glad my royal drought is over;  I was seriously beginning to wonder if I was going to go to my grave without ever seeing one again.
~Benford's Law

[BruceinGa]

Congrats!
I only have about 20000 hands before I can expect a rf!

[cddenver]

I'm just glad my royal drought is over;  I was seriously beginning to wonder if I was going to go to my grave without ever seeing one again.
~Benford's Law
 
Congratulations on the well-deserved royal.  I hope it's the start of a nice run of them for you!

[Benford's Law]

@MikeA - I was wondering what you meant when you said you were feeling my pain here, so I briefly checked your posts and I now see that it has been a year for you.  I've been playing VP for about 7 years and my two longest royalless streaks are about 200,000 hands and this 480,000+ hand monster I have just now experienced over the last two years.  I will say that, over the course of my play about 2 years ago, I did have one glorious 15 hour stretch of play (about 10-12,000 hands) where I got SIX (!!) royals.  It seems like the last two years have been some sort of weird punishment for those beautiful 15 little hours of play that took place back then....This is why I asked about the Poisson distribution to the group on this thread. 
@BruceinGa - My years of experience in this game has taught me that you can never really expect a royal to show up at any certain interval.  You can get two royals in a row in two hands (I've actually heard about this happening once at Prairie Band Casino in Kansas).....or you can go a half-million hands without seeing one like I just experienced.  The machines truly do not have any idea how long you've played without a royal and this fact can be very frustrating to us poor, mortal human beings.
@cddenver - Thanks!  I hope you're right!
 
~Benford's Law
 

[MikeA]

I think I posted in another thread where I talked with a pit boss (BJ) who told me of a guy who hit almost back-to-back royals playing DDB on a quarter machine (8/5 paytables at quarter) and then glanced over and pointed the guy out to me.  I went over and talked to him and sure enough, he confirmed it.  That was three or four weeks ago and when I talked to him, it was a week after hitting the Royals.  He told me he had already lost the $2,000 he'd won back into the same machines.  This was in Oklahoma.But yes, it's been a year for me other than one in a computer practice session.  In fact, it was in 2006, Sept 4th at 4-Queens on Fremont and three weeks later, Sept 23rd at AmeriStar in KC that I hit.

[mcsondor]

Yesterday i also hit a royal on a dlb bonus machine . also a double pay . It dealt it on one of the 10 lines i was playing. I got paid and lest than 1 hour later it dealt my husband a royal flush on the bottom line that automately goes to all 10 lines for $10,000 on a dime machine. It was a very profitable day.

[BruceinGa]

Benford's Law, I read Dancer's book "Million Dollar Video Poker" and learned from him that you really don't know when to expect it.
I've been happy with just breaking even so far.  Heck, I only had a couple of Four of a Kinds and no straight flushes.  I only play a couple of hours at a time so it's just recreational at this time for me.
Best of luck to everyone!

[MikeA]

I'm going to hack VPW.  I'll add a "magic button".  When I think I've gone long enough without a royal, I'll just use it.  I think it will raise my morale. 

[cddenver]

I'm going to hack VPW.  I'll add a "magic button".  When I think I've gone long enough without a royal, I'll just use it.  I think it will raise my morale. 
 
If you're good at hardware hacks, put a sensor on your washing machine and connect it to your PC to help with the hot/cold.
 
The game simulation I use is one that I wrote myself.  I actually have a "Do Over!" button on it that lets me replay dealt hands until I get the draw I'm after.  Maybe that's why I do better at home than I do in real life...