Food for thought

[wildman49]

I am one that leaves hits on the machines and move, I have been back a week later and the same hit still there.Holy cow. That is all the first hand evidence you need to quit playing there. Do you recall the last royal flush anybody had there? It almost reminds me of Showboat in AC, which was so empty last year. Not much winning to be had at all, even for quads!

To be fare it was triple play at $1 level, I hit 4 Deuces playing $1 per line on 2 machines and they both still on the machine a week later. Not may will play $15 a pull. Last year my wife hit a royal playing only one line 25 cent STP a 2 weeks later still on the machine. People are playing but more then half play 5 cent.

[Vman96]

I think the way you are interpreting the explanation the casino host is giving, is not the way VP machines are supposed to work in Mississippi, Arkansas, or many other states. Machines are supposed to be having their random number generators (RNG) running at all times, even when you're not playing. It's all about hitting buttons at the right time. The machine is just constantly spitting random cards at you until you hit those draw/deal buttons.

Lets say the machine was nice enough for you to be dealt 4 to a Royal. And lets say in the text below, a "dot" means a missed 4 to a Royal Draw and "R" means you made a Royal if you hit the button at that exact time. The RNG should look something like this until you hit the draw button. If the very last character was an "R" congrats, you made the Royal draw!

..................R.................................................................R....................R.........R.......................R........................................................................................
......R.....R................................................R................................................................................................................R......R..............................................
.........................................................R...........................R.........................................................................R.........................R..........................................
................................................R.R...............................................R.................................................................................................................................
......R.....................R........R............................................................................R.............................R..................................................................R.......R........

Edit: The pattern above I made up to mimic randomness. Here is one using the RNG feature in Excel. I still missed and ran bad in the sample...dammit.   
    
998 Trials: Expected Royals: 21.23, Actual Royals: 16, Probability of 16 or less Royals: 14.84%

...................................................................................R....................................................................R.............................................................RR............
......................................................R.......................................................................R..........................................................................................R..........
........................................................................................................................................................R...........................................................................
.............R............................R..................R...........................................................................R....R.....................................R...............................................
.....................R.......................................................................................R..

Patterns like the above has been the casino story of my life for over 4 years now...

Now if you interpret the casino host's explanation like this...well, "we're witnessing big hits occur less frequently because there are less hands being played per hour in the casino". Then this statement still can be true with legal VP machines. The more hands played on machines...the more jackpots will be hit overall. In the same way, more garbage will occur too.

If a VP section is packed (Friday/Saturday in St. Louis), I often walk by a handpay or 2 per hour. At Monday at 2 pm, not so much. And this makes complete sense. If you see 8 VP machines around you all being played at the same denominations/games you do at the same speed, wouldn't you expect on average that bank of 8 machines have 8 times more handpays than you get for yourself? If you just play by yourself, you'll never see any other big wins being hit other than your own. But at least those hits would be yours!
     
Now if the casinos and or major VP manufacturers like IGT are actually breaking the law, then all bets are off.

[DaBurglar]

another good thread .....excellent thoughts Ko king.     But alas, I have to agree with wildman here.....cycle time, cycle patterns, etc.  should not have any impact on what you get or receive IF.....IF the machines are set up and operating the way true random games are supposed to operate.vman gives a good illustration with his Rs  and  dots!  lol   good job Vman....The fact is, if you catch a Royal flush on a machine, then cash out and go eat dinner.....when you return after eating and sit down at the same machine, you should have the exact same chance/probability of catching another Royal on the very first hand after returning....likewise, with any other hand result.What's really interesting though, is the lack of response from all the other Video Poker / Casino / Gaming Industry defenders to Ko king's thread and questions about "cycle time and patterns"........If I had made this thread or claim. KABOOM!!!    Incoming missles of hostility and destruction from certain posters.....

[notes1]

if one flips a coin, the odds are even to get a head or tail. now, you could get heads come up 50 times in row, but eventually the odds are going to work out. if the RNG is truely random (i have no idea), then one could get a RF many times in row, but eventually the odds have to work out. when i think of 'cycles', this is what i think of. this just seems logical to me. you need a certain amount of play to have the premium hands come up. it does not mean one is a casino or gaming industry defender.  this reminds me of the stock market. the market drops and folks pull their money out at the bottom. the market rallies and those on the sideline keep waiting. eventually they put their money in at the top and the market drops and they pull their money out, lose money and say the game is rigged. cycles are not limited to casino games.  i would like nothing better than to find out that the machines are rigged. it would be easier to accept because that could be exposed and corrected and we could go back to the old days. what is harder to accept is that lower paytables and less play has caused the change.    

[Vman96]

Yeah, theoretically you can get many royal flushes in a row...but the probabilities get very tiny, very fast.

For example, if for some reason, the roughly 5 billion adults on Earth were mandated to play 10,000 hands of VP per day on standard totally random machines, yielding 50 trillion total hands each day....

Seeing any person make 5 or more Royals in a row should occur about 1 in every 5.6 million YEARS on average.

[TIMSPEED]

To chime in on this...
I don't think the RNG is running ALL the time...I think it just runs when you press DEAL and DRAW, or perhaps when there's money put in (say you bet 1-2-3-4-5, then hit DEAL) between the time you first press BET ONE and the time you hit DEAL it's running.
I could be wrong, but I've noticed the same thing...a casino that doesn't get a lot of "play", the machines don't do so well...but go to a casino with a lot of action, and sit at a bartop, and man, those things can pay out (or so it seems)

On the subject of leaving a royal on the machine...I once left a $1000 royal on a machine at JANugget, and it sat there for 3 weeks! I finally played it off MYSELF! hahahah

[ko king]

I think the way you are interpreting the explanation the casino host is giving, is not the way VP machines are supposed to work in Mississippi, Arkansas, or many other states. Machines are supposed to be having their random number generators (RNG) running at all times, even when you're not playing. It's all about hitting buttons at the right time. The machine is just constantly spitting random cards at you until you hit those draw/deal buttons.

Lets say the machine was nice enough for you to be dealt 4 to a Royal. And lets say in the text below, a "dot" means a missed 4 to a Royal Draw and "R" means you made a Royal if you hit the button at that exact time. The RNG should look something like this until you hit the draw button. If the very last character was an "R" congrats, you made the Royal draw!

..................R.................................................................R....................R.........R.......................R........................................................................................
......R.....R................................................R................................................................................................................R......R..............................................
.........................................................R...........................R.........................................................................R.........................R..........................................
................................................R.R...............................................R.................................................................................................................................
......R.....................R........R............................................................................R.............................R..................................................................R.......R........

Edit: The pattern above I made up to mimic randomness. Here is one using the RNG feature in Excel. I still missed and ran bad in the sample...dammit.   
    
998 Trials: Expected Royals: 21.23, Actual Royals: 16, Probability of 16 or less Royals: 14.84%

...................................................................................R....................................................................R.............................................................RR............
......................................................R.......................................................................R..........................................................................................R..........
........................................................................................................................................................R...........................................................................
.............R............................R..................R...........................................................................R....R.....................................R...............................................
.....................R.......................................................................................R..

Patterns like the above has been the casino story of my life for over 4 years now...

Now if you interpret the casino host's explanation like this...well, "we're witnessing big hits occur less frequently because there are less hands being played per hour in the casino". Then this statement still can be true with legal VP machines. The more hands played on machines...the more jackpots will be hit overall. In the same way, more garbage will occur too.

If a VP section is packed (Friday/Saturday in St. Louis), I often walk by a handpay or 2 per hour. At Monday at 2 pm, not so much. And this makes complete sense. If you see 8 VP machines around you all being played at the same denominations/games you do at the same speed, wouldn't you expect on average that bank of 8 machines have 8 times more handpays than you get for yourself? If you just play by yourself, you'll never see any other big wins being hit other than your own. But at least those hits would be yours!
     
Now if the casinos and or major VP manufacturers like IGT are actually breaking the law, then all bets are off.

Well it made perfect sense to me at the time, I guess it's back to the drawing board. Not the first time I've been offered up some crazy info by someone at a casino. It's been a few years back but I was talking to a machine tech who was working on a machine right next to me, I ask the man if there was anything that controlled the games outcome and jackpots other than the RNG and he said "yes, there is a secondary chip". Seeing as how I was new to that casino and area I thought I better ask someone else to get the story straight, I spotted a person with a state ID tag and ask them if the vp games were completely random and controlled only by an RNG, she said, "that's probably something I should know, I'll check and get back to you in a few minutes."
      I can't really speak for other players and the conversation was only between the two of us. I only brought up the fact that it had gotten way to tough for me to play vp at that particular casino, the host was probably just offering up some info that they may have heard before, I doubt they really have a clue as to the inner working of a machine. I'll chalk it up as nothing other than friendly conversation. By the way though, I wasn't never inquiring about other players, I was just asking or wondering why "I" was experiencing such bad results, that's my biggest concern. I've said it before but I'll say it again. I highly doubt any casino or manufacture is breaking any laws, I'm certain all games and RNG's have been approved by someone, I hope it's not the same someone that wasn't sure if the games were supposed to be random or not. I'm simply just searching for answers as to why or how the price of playing seems to have gone up.

[wildman49]

I think DDB players are the ones having a hard time with the hands they want to see.If you go to the casino, play for 6 hours, 600 hands per hour, that's 3600 hands and you head home after your play on single line VP.Most every trip you have not played enough hands to get to the Kicker payoutsAWK 1 in 16,000 hands2's,3's and 4's wk 1 in 7000 handsWhen you hit them in less the the odds, you think its going to happen each time you go. If you track your play to how many hands you play to the  odds it should be close.Odds don't lie or change. I do not play DDB for the reason I can't play enough hands per trip to get to the good playing hands in that game.The only poster to seen here not coming close to the royal odds in Olds442. He has a ***** there as he tracks his hands and is not seeing the royals like her should be. For me the royals hit in the 1 in 40,000 hands.I believe in playing the odds, if I hit a fok in JOB I move or changes games. Can you hit another 4ok right after sure you can people do it, but I still move the odds say 1 in 423, and moving works for me!Jackpot Frequencies
Odds


Royal Flush dealt
1 / 650,000


Royal Flush ending hand
1 / 40,000


Four of a kind
1 / 423


Four Aces
1 / 5,761


Four Aces with a kicker
1 / 16,236


Four Deuces
1 / 4,909


2’s – 4’s
1 / 2,601


2’s – 4’s with a kicker
1 / 6,984


Full House
1 / 90


Flush
1 / 85


Straight
1 / 80


Straight Flush
1 / 9,150

[FAA]

if you catch a Royal flush, then cash out and go eat dinner.....when you return after eatingWhy ruin a perfect day?! Watch TV, stroll the boardwalk, do anything but return.

[FAA]

I ask the man if there was anything that controlled the games outcome
and jackpots other than the RNG , "yes, there is a secondary
chip".Ah, the plot thickens! I assume AC just does the RNG, at least I hope so.