Deuces Wild probability question

[Vman96]

I agree that it is much more precise to use the binomial distribution than Poisson, should have been the first thing (or basic instinct) when it comes to probability. Mathematical constants like Pi and Euler constant have too many digits to throw off the results, at least Pi has well over 200 million digits after the decimal.

1 in ~11500 is so rare in actuality to a point where (no offense) the casino hit an unlikely jackpot with a player unfortunately, I am probably nearing 3 cycles (15000 hands) myself. I hit them in practice, but never at a live casino. Deuces Wild is pretty brutal with the lack of Deuces as it is accounts about 4 percent of the overall return.

Yep I know that pretty well. I'm zero for lifetime for quad deuces for quarters+. I dunno if I've played two deuce cycles of the game though at those levels yet. What's disturbing is that deuces is the most common quad on my phone. I think I've made 8 quad deuces on nickels or less for deuces since Oct. 2013.

[Lucky Larry]

olds,
Ugly Deuces is the game I play along with Bonus DW 90-95% of the time at 25-50 hands per deal.   Others have given the mathematical answer... so as Paul Harvey used to say..

"now the rest of the story...."

I have had trips where 4 deuces occur with great regularity (dealt deuces for me and Sweet C this year already) and several trips where I have gone 2 days of thousands of hands and never catching deuces. One one trip I remember going 15-16 hours of play with not one 4 deuces but hitting 4-5 RF. The key for me is that DW and BDW keep me in the game long enough to eventually hit the big hit..... eventually..... OK sometimes...

[olds442jetaway]

I agree that DW and BDW both give you the chance to hang in there for thousands of hands with the hope of some big hits. My most recent example was getting dealt quad deuces on the DD stud game. Only 1 quarter in, but still 200 bucks. Lots of money backs on DW bets and that keeps us going. When I am able to get to the casino again to play, (family obligations for now ) I think I will try some low denomination multi line games too. 50 or 100 play or even spin poker.

[Lucky Larry]

I agree that DW and BDW both give you the chance to hang in there for thousands of hands with the hope of some big hits. My most recent example was getting dealt quad deuces on the DD stud game. Only 1 quarter in, but still 200 bucks. Lots of money backs on DW bets and that keeps us going. When I am able to get to the casino again to play, (family obligations for now ) I think I will try some low denomination multi line games too. 50 or 100 play or even spin poker.

Choose a number of hands and play until you get a feel for the machine. Our daughter plays spin exclusively and begins lower denomination and moves up as the hits give her a bigger bank roll. Last trip hit for over $7K in hand pays beginning at dime denomination and moving to 25¢ as hits came along. She'll play 6-8 hours per session only on Spin. Good Luck.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=Lucky Larry]Choose a number of hands and play until you get a feel for the machine.
Our daughter plays spin exclusively and begins lower denomination and
moves up as the hits give her a bigger bank roll.[/quote] Couldn't have written this any better myself.  Starting out small and moving up is a great strategy.  I know some people will think this is nuts, but it works for me.

[olds442jetaway]

Back from a short trip last night. Played about 6 hours using the Phil method. Regular Deuces Wild. Got down about 200 as the machines were really dead. No deuces quads or even wild royals. Caught a straight flush and then bet 5 on the next hand. Nada...next hand back to one coin..dealt 4 to a Royal in spades...last card..Jack of spades to complete the royal. Only paid 62.50 of course , but it did break a nearly 700k streak without a royal. Had to get home to the family stuff so I packed in at that point and was still out 140, but survived at least for another day. About 4,000 hands total played. That is a lot of hands without a wild royal and only 3 5 of a kinds. The regular quads were about on schedule. Too bad the very next hand to the bet 5 hand had to be the royal, but the system is designed to survice a bad streak and it did accomplish that.

[FloridaPhil]

It happens.  Ask yourself this question " If I had hit the royal at max coins, would I have recovered all the money I lost while paying max coins?"  Sooner or later you will hit one at max coins and you'll be able to keep it.

[olds442jetaway]

Based on how dead that machine was before the Royal, I can estimate it out this way. I was out 200- before the royal. The other 4 coins not played for the appx 4,000 hands would have turned that 200- loss to 1,000 so I would have been roughly even when the Royal hit. Here is the other thing. I probably would have packed it in after losing around 500- which would have happened about 1/2 way through the session. So in that sense, using the Phil method, I really saved about 360 bucks. All in round numbers of course. The math people will all say that over time, not hitting the Royal at max will catch up with you and you will pay about a 2% penalty over time. However, for the recreational player like most of us, we limit our losses for the day. We either don't have the resources or don't wish to lose that much in a single session. I know we will never be able to win that argument, so our pocketbook or wallet answers the question for us.

[FloridaPhil]

Math is an exact science, video poker is not.  Unfortunately, you can play 100% machines perfectly every day for the rest of your life and there is no absolute guarantee you will be a long term winner. 

[alpax]

Math is an exact science, video poker is not.  Unfortunately, you can play 100% machines perfectly every day for the rest of your life and there is no absolute guarantee you will be a long term winner. 







The math involved in the video poker scenario is that the results will show in a very large sample set of play whereas luck is applied for a short sample set, at around 2.5 million hands a year perhaps with multiplay counting for multiple hands should be a good gauge. Even a slight excess Blackjack has a small edge in favor of the casino, but throughout the lifespan of the casino, it will be worthwhile for them to offer it.

There are great VP players here, but what separates Dancer apart from most of us is the availability of a good casino club cash back, promotions that apply to video poker, and an extensive knowledge of players who share what they get for mailers for X amount coin in of play. It will negate the edge of a negative expectation video poker game.

I believe hearing somewhere that Dancer had a positive score at the end of the year in all but two years of playing.