Slash Machine Time

[alpax]

[QUOTE=rascal]"....the machine always comes out ahead in the long run." Always. Always. Always. Why do so many VP players refuse to accept this truth? Sure, amazing short-term runs happen every day, every week, maybe every month..... but not for a year and definitely not for years. Enjoy your windfalls when they occur but accept that if you are a long-term player, the casino always gets its cut.
  from all the posts i read here, i think there are very few VP players who feel the game is going to produce positive results, especially in the long term. more and more comments are about how to play a negative expectation game, without going through one's budget. most concede that they hope to win, but expect to lose. it is their entertainment. anyone who believes they can win on a consistent basis, has not been reading the posts of those who have been playing a long time. and, anyone who boasts about winning all the time, why don't they quit their jobs and play full time?[/QUOTE]

My opinion wise is, winning in VP is not a good enough substitute for job but winning a lottery jackpot is.

However, VP is a great option as a recreational activity for once you do reach retirement. So many special offers are available to retirees who can make it to the casino during weekday afternoons when it is slow.

[FAA]

Jacks or Better example. That game, you slowly lose over long sessions and get most of it back on a royal flush.Yeah, every 40,390 hands theoretically. Hang in there!  While I did achieve that miracle in January, it remains no less a miracle.

[FloridaPhil]

If I was going to play max coin dollars all the time, 9/6 Jacks would definitely be my game of choice.   Low variance, decent comps and $4K when you hit a Royal, it's about as good as it gets at max coins. My biggest win was playing $1 Jacks at the Beau Rivage in 2008 (4 in 24 Hrs).  I gave it all back, but that was my fault not the casinos. 

[alpax]

If I was going to play max coin dollars all the time, 9/6 Jacks would definitely be my game of choice.   Low variance, decent comps and $4K when you hit a Royal, it's about as good as it gets at max coins. My biggest win was playing $1 Jacks at the Beau Rivage in 2008 (4 in 24 Hrs).  I gave it all back, but that was my fault not the casinos. 


I believe there is $1 denomination for 10/6 DDB in Las Vegas. But I will run through the simulator to see if the risk of ruin happens quite often on a 100% game.

I've lurked on Mendelson Best Buy and Wizard of Vegas forums, there are number of people who gave back an entire royal flush payout to the casino during the same session they won it.

[Minn. Fatz]

Playing quarters at the Nugget a gal next to me hits a Royal, "now if I only get another one I'll be even" she says. Limits, up limits as well as down limits. Set 'em and stick to 'em is my advice. That and good mathematics.

[alpax]

I initially tried out using the autoplay for 100k hands on VPW with a 4 royal flush bankroll on quarter 10/6 DDB, but that was too slow to go through. I just used the bankroll calculator which was faster to use though it took some time for it to complete.

Here is the report



After 100k hands, there IS A CHANCE OF RUIN (depleted bankroll) of 9.26% chance

49.82% chance for profit which I expect from a 100% game, like flipping coins. 50.18% chance of losing.

Again here are the ranges in which the simulation fell.

Starting bankroll of $4000

9.26% Ruin - Bankrupt
15.3% You will have $2230.75 or less
32.68% You will have $2231 to $4461.50, so 7.08% of that 32.68% is at least $4000.50 to $4461.50
27.29% You will have $4461.75 to $6692.25
11.93% You will have $6692.50 to $8923
3.01% You will have $8923.25 to $11153.75
0.47% You will have $11154 to $13384.50
0.05% (or 1 in 2,000 chance) you will have more than $13385

As a gambler I like those chances and will take them.

I was wrong about the lack of comps for playing 10/6 DDB.

You get 0.125% from the Palms casino $2 per point and 400 points for $1. if you do not ruin, you will get $125.

At the Stations casino e.g. Red Rock, Green Valley Ranch, you get $4 Coin-In = 1 Point on Over-100% Payback Video Poker (with Daily 3x Points)
Cash, Free Play or Comps: 1000 Points = $1 (0.025%). Thus far they offer this game for $1 denomination which will boost you EV if you have the bankroll.

$25 for the 100k hands of $125k coin in.

So this proves luck is needed for 100% games, though the odds look good. 4 times the royal flush payout is not safe after 100k hands nontheless.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]I've lurked on Mendelson Best Buy and Wizard of Vegas forums, there are
number of people who gave back an entire royal flush payout to the
casino during the same session they won it.[/quote] Been there, done that...  Now you know why I play cheap.   The question to ask Bob Dancer is not how much he has won in a day, it's how much he has lost...  So you want to be a pro do you? 

[onemoretry]

I like their yardstick. After $100 wagered, you have a fair idea of whether it is a playable machine. If losses hit $10, close up shop. After all, that's twenty times your expected loss on a 9/6 game. Escape the beat down!

This, in my opinion, is a rather silly notion. Playing 25c single line video poker, this equates to a grand total of 80 hands, which would take 7 or 8 minutes to play.

You're prepared to abandon a 9/6 JOB machine on the basis of a 7 or 8 minute bad run?

[FAA]

Playing 25c single line video poker, this equates to a grand total of 80 hands, which would take 7 or 8 minutes to play.
You're prepared to abandon a 9/6 JOB machine on the basis of a 7 or 8 minute bad run?I vary my bets from $.50 to $1.25, so usually about 150 hands. If I hang in, a thirty dollar loss usually ensues. This can be recaptured with a quad of course, if I am not thoroughly frustrated by that time and happen to hit it on max bet. Even a "low risk" game like this has pitfalls like ice cold machines. You have the temperament to endure. "Onemoretry" is always going to keep on plugging.

[FAA]

Best Buy and Wizard of Vegas forums, number of people who gave back an entire royal flush payout to the
casino during the same session they won it.I was devastated to give back $80 Royal Flush day on another machine. I got an invincible mindset and played on a dollar machine, just one at a time. The memory still enrages me.