Understanding casino math

[alpax]

Luck matters more to recreational players as they will not reach the high volume of play to reach a game's theoretical return. I agree that skill does help to extend play as long as possible.

I'd go for any casino game that has decent payouts for outcomes that pay out frequently such as 4 of a Kind on a Deuces Wild game.

[MPD001]

[quote=Minn. Fatz]There is no such thing as luck. It is all mathematics.I respectfully disagree.  This may be true on paper, but doesn't play out in real life play.  The reason for this is that these formulas are calculated into infinity and don't take into consideration that a player only plays during a small window of that time.  If you are lucky enough to be sitting at the machine when the big hands happen, you win no matter what the math says.  If you do that often enough before you die, you win long term.    If it doesn't happen for you, you lose no matter what your skill or bankroll level.  The world is full of broke gamblers that keep telling themselves that the math is right.  This doesn't mean you ignore the math, but it's not all there is to video poker. 
[/QUOTE]
I think that the author of the article was referring to the CASINO'S perspective - not the players. He was assuring casinos that players can, and will, get lucky from time to time. In the long run, however, as long as they manage player incentives correctly, the casino will benefit from the math, and be profitable.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=MDP001]In the long run, however, as long as they manage player incentives
correctly, the casino will benefit from the math, and be profitable.[/quote]Totally agree.  The casino never closes, so in time the wins and loses flatted out to more closely reflect the true game odds.  If the game is negative to start with, add in human error and the fact that most players will bust before they see the big hands and you have a profitable casino enterprise.  Even Vegas casinos that offer 100% games make money long term.  In my opinion this is a good thing. I want all casinos to make as much money as possible as long as it's from someone else. 

[Minn. Fatz]

Thought provoking responses. Some say "luck," some say "variance," it's the same thing. From the player's perspective, there's a risk of ruin even on a game returning over 100%. But without limits, the risk of ruin for games returning less than that is always 1; given enough time, you will always lose every dime you run through any negative EV game.

For too many of us I suspect, VP has to be entertainment; set limits, both for losses and wins, and stick to them absolutely. Otherwise you're on your own.

Good Mathematics!

[BobDancer]

[quote=Minn. Fatz]There is no such thing as luck. It is all mathematics.I respectfully disagree.  This may be true on paper, but doesn't play out in real life play.  The reason for this is that these formulas are calculated into infinity and don't take into consideration that a player only plays during a small window of that time.  If you are lucky enough to be sitting at the machine when the big hands happen, you win no matter what the math says.  If you do that often enough before you die, you win long term.    If it doesn't happen for you, you lose no matter what your skill or bankroll level.  The world is full of broke gamblers that keep telling themselves that the math is right.  This doesn't mean you ignore the math, but it's not all there is to video poker. 





[/QUOTE]There has been a lot of "dittos" on this post by FP --- but he's still misguided.His argument depends on a lot of "ifs". Although phrased in a number of ways, they all come down to "IF you're constantly lucky, you can beat the odds and the numbers don't matter." Technically that's true, but NOBODY can constantly be lucky. That's like arguing, "If I can find two $100 bills on the ground every day for the rest of my life, I won't need to work. Therefore, getting an education in order to improve my job prospects is worthless." Successful people don't make this argument. Successful gamblers don't use the "it's all luck" argument. Even recreational gamblers do better over time if they pay attention to pay schedules and promotions. You don't have to be a professional to take advantage of these things. Even the guy who decides to play on $20 each week until it's gone or he gets ahead more than $200 (which most people would define as a recreational player's strategy). He'll do better playing 99% games than 94% games. He'll get more play out of his $20. He'll reach his $200 goal more often. Most recreational players would define success as playing longer and going home more often with money in your pocket. That's what math will get you.Will skill help you TODAY? Yeah, but not very much. If you play 1 hour, your results are probably 99% luck. But if you play 200 of those 1 hours sessions over a couple of years, now your results are probably 70% or more skill.If you concentrate on those one hour sessions, you can come to the "it's all luck" conclusion. If you focus on the sum of the sessions, the conclusion doesn't make any sense at all. Successful players use some version of a "today's score doesn't matter" philosophy --- where it's all one game over your entire lifetime. Gamblers who believe in luck believe today's score is pretty important --- and if they are up $100 today it's great, no matter how much they've lost in the last week/month/year.If you want to think that way, be my guest. You will very likely never be successful at any game / occupation you approach that way. If you want to succeed, you're far better off adopting Minn Fatz's original premise of "it's all mathematics."

[FAA]

the only mistake you may be making is jumping from quarter to
dollar. with such a low loss limit, why not extend your play, by staying
at a lower denomination. if you are happy to just play just one hour,
so be it. but, many of the posters are looking for ways to extend their
play, continue their entertainment, while you seem to be going for the
quick-big hit. nothing wrong with that, but it will more often than not,
reduce your time on the machines. good luck. You're absolutely correct. Thanks for the measured and thoughtful reply. The urge for a quick hit took over my psyche. I was determined to parlay, come hell or high water, and both came, to my profound dismay. I hate playing for an hour, but that's what I get for ignoring my bankroll constraints. There is a related thorny issue too. If the damn quarter full pays were in a more secluded area, I would pound away on them, happy as a clam. But they are in such a high traffic area. The cacophony just wears me down, and the hen house environment with all the waitresses constantly congregating is impossible to fully tune out. I think it's calmer at Resorts, but those are some tight machines. And Tropicana feels like an airport outside the high roller room. Like Jerry said on Seinfeld, "Serenity now!"

[FAA]

Will skill help you TODAY? Yeah, but not very much. If you play 1 hour,
your results are probably 99% luck. But if you play 200 of those 1 hours
sessions over a couple of years, now your results are probably 70% or
more skill.Thanks! That is some serious insight in a nutshell. My skill level doesn't matter a damn with a mere hour of play. Too finite a financial constraint I operate with. Either the cards cometh or the iceman cometh. I'm soaring or crashing on pure luck.

[notes1]

the only mistake you may be making is jumping from quarter to
dollar. with such a low loss limit, why not extend your play, by staying
at a lower denomination. if you are happy to just play just one hour,
so be it. but, many of the posters are looking for ways to extend their
play, continue their entertainment, while you seem to be going for the
quick-big hit. nothing wrong with that, but it will more often than not,
reduce your time on the machines. good luck. You're absolutely correct. Thanks for the measured and thoughtful reply. The urge for a quick hit took over my psyche. I was determined to parlay, come hell or high water, and both came, to my profound dismay. I hate playing for an hour, but that's what I get for ignoring my bankroll constraints. There is a related thorny issue too. If the damn quarter full pays were in a more secluded area, I would pound away on them, happy as a clam. But they are in such a high traffic area. The cacophony just wears me down, and the hen house environment with all the waitresses constantly congregating is impossible to fully tune out. I think it's calmer at Resorts, but those are some tight machines. And Tropicana feels like an airport outside the high roller room. Like Jerry said on Seinfeld, "Serenity now!"





 glad i could offer a little bit of help, i do believe that there are some on this forum who really do wish to offer some assistance. most of what i have learned comes from making the same mistakes. as to the problem of congestion at the places you play, you may want to consider changing your time of play. i have met many others who have the same problem. most every casino has times  when traffic is lower. i know some that only like to play in the middle of the night, until late morning. 

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BobDancer]There has been a lot of "dittos" on this post by FP --- but he's still misguided.  If you want to think that way, be my guest. You will very likely never be successful at any game / occupation you approach that way. If you want to succeed, you're far better off adopting Minn Fatz's original premise of "it's all mathematics."[/quote]It is true that no one can be lucky all the time and that relying on luck alone is not a long term winning strategy in any endeavor.   The problem I have with the "It's all math" idea is that it leads players to think that there is some formula that can make anyone a long term video poker winner.   This just isn't true.  As Bob Dancer has discovered, winning involves playing the right games with the right strategy with the right skill and the right bankroll.  His strategy will put you in position to win, but you still need some luck for this to happen. If you're not at the machine when your share of the good hands happen, you lose no matter who you are. 

[olds442jetaway]

If one could live to be about 400,000 years old or so and play vp every day using correct strategy, I agree that maybe in that time the math could offset or beat the luck factor with those playing poor pay tables and not the best strategy. Otherwise there will always be those who are lucky most of their lives and others who will be unlucky most of theirs. I have bored the readers long enough about the lack of Royals in my single line vp game playing. Last year I went way over 500k hands without a Royal. This year, although I have not counted exactly, I have gone over 300k hands without one since Jan 1st and several hundred thousand hands in the closing months of 2014 without a Royal on a single line game. By the way, my last W-2G was last October. Any number of types of premium hands could have triggered one the way I play and yet Nada.....
   On the other hand, I have done well hitting deuces quads and even dealt deuces quads this year. There is no other rational explanation for that except luck in one example and unluck in the other.