Understanding casino math

[FloridaPhil]

What we need is here is a "Captain Obvious" moment.  Gambling is gambling and there no way to explain it away.  Bob Dancer has spent a lifetime thinking about video poker and to his credit has uncovered a strategy that makes it possible for some to win long term.   It seems to me that he has convinced himself that luck has nothing to do with his sucess and it's all in the math.  Look, I am very grateful for his insight and while I don't have the opportunities that he does, I win using his strategy despite the math.  My fortunes could turn around any minute, but as a quarter player I'm not going to lose my home and family over it.  Video poker is recreation.  If you have a problem with that, you could have a problem. 

[olds442jetaway]

I am grateful for the strategy as well and follow it closely. There is one exception for me on a Deuces Wild game playing 25/15/9/4/4/3/2/1. I will not go for inside straights without a deuce most of the time. I know this is against the rules, but I would rather take a shot at a new hand and once in awhile hit something good like dealt deuces on the draw, a wild royal or similar. Is there anyone else out there that on this game will not go for an inside straight without a deuce showing? Other than that, I follow the strategy to the letter.

[alpax]

What we need is here is a "Captain Obvious" moment.  Gambling is gambling and there no way to explain it away.  Bob Dancer has spent a lifetime thinking about video poker and to his credit has uncovered a strategy that makes it possible for some to win long term.   It seems to me that he has convinced himself that luck has nothing to do with his sucess and it's all in the math.  Look, I am very grateful for his insight and while I don't have the opportunities that he does, I win using his strategy despite the math.  My fortunes could turn around any minute, but as a quarter player I'm not going to lose my home and family over it.  Video poker is recreation.  If you have a problem with that, you could have a problem. 


Video Poker is different to most of us and Bob. To you, it is for recreational fun and the enjoyment of the resort you play at and its surroundings. To Bob it is a very serious business, where mistakes can be very costly. The results and proof of Dancer's theory can only be attained by playing many many hands to a point where it is not fun and becomes very monotonous. In any situation, a player recreational or not, must be able to withstand nasty losing streaks to be able to reach the overall return. I have told myself to figure out mathematically the number of hands range where the game's return will reach near its theoretical, I'll figure something out tonight. For sure 25 million hands shows return nearly to its theorectical, but that is way too much for 10 years worth of play.

I am grateful for the strategy as well and follow it closely. There is one exception for me on a Deuces Wild game playing 25/15/9/4/4/3/2/1. I will not go for inside straights without a deuce most of the time. I know this is against the rules, but I would rather take a shot at a new hand and once in awhile hit something good like dealt deuces on the draw, a wild royal or similar. Is there anyone else out there that on this game will not go for an inside straight without a deuce showing? Other than that, I follow the strategy to the letter.

4 to an inside straight is at the bottom of the Airport Deuces guideline strategy charts, which is only better than discarding the entire hand. On average you lose about 0.02 credits when discarding the hand over holding the inside straight, so on a 5 quarter max bet it will be about 2.5 cents average cost to go for the possibility of a better hand. Otherwise the strategy suggests you hold the inside straight for 8 in 47 chance to complete the straight for double pay.

I have been exploring Bonus Deuces Wild 25-9-4-4-3-1-1, and for that game you do not hold the inside straight as it pays just even money in return for higher payouts on 5 of a kinds. If there are good Bonus Deuces Wild games, it is more preferable to play that, but Moheagan does not seem to have it.

[notes1]

 you have a golf course you have always wanted to play and you have the luxury of travelling to it for this one time, singular event, whenever you want. because you are only going to get one opportunity to play this course, you want to pick the best possible day where you will get 4 hours of great weather. you check out the historical weather data for the last 100 years, pick your date and book your tee time. even though the weather is random, you have done all you can to put the odds of good weather in your favor. this is a corny anaology of how i think about VP. i respect the math and understand how it can affect the outcome. but, i believe it has more of an impact if one is playing much more than my limited time in front of any machine. just like selecting the best time to visit someplace would have a greater impact if i were going to commit to that same time period for many years in a row, the impact of playing a machine would be impacted if i were playing everyday/everyweek. but, the difference between a 2% or 4% hold machine, when i may be playing it for 20 minutes or less, out of lifespan of 24/7, 20 years in service.  not trying to stir up a hornets nest, not trying to convince anyone else of my thinking, just trying to explain to the math folks how others may think.  just like the weather may be perfect 4 hours before my tee time or right after i am done playing, limited time on a machine can be affected, simply by the timing of your play.

[FloridaPhil]

All great comments.  One thing I always wondered about?   Let's suppose you are Bob Dancer (which we are not) or one of the "math is everything" players.  Suppose you hit a truly terrible bad spell. Not one of your ordinary down turns mind you, but one that challenges everything you own and have worked for.  If you are down to your last $100, do you reduce your play or do you continue until you are totally broke?   This scenario is very unlikely, but mathematically possible.  Just wondering? 

[shadowman]

If you are down to your last $100 you are not playing according to the math. That is too small of a bankroll for anything but a penny game.

Many seem to forget that the math comes into play in many ways. One of them is playing within your bankroll.

[alpax]

A good amount (but not all) of us may not have the resources to dedicate a significant bankroll to video poker purposes to prevent the risk of being ruined before reaping the long term benefits.

Even quarter advantage play probably needs $6000 bankroll to avoid ruin, I heard 3 to 4 times the royal flush ($3000 - $4000) but even on 10/6 DDB quarters running the VPW bankroll simulator (100.07% with nearly no cashback or bounceback), there is a chance to be ruined at $4000 bankroll.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=shadowman]If you are down to your last $100 you are not playing according to the math.[/quote]My question assumes you had the right bankroll but lost it all believing the math was going to pull you out.  There are two ways to play this game; go all in believing the math is on your side and that you will win in the long run or believing the math shows there is a good possibility you may lose and playing conservatively.  I believe having a fear of losing is healthy and will keep you out of trouble.  Math may get you to Mars, but it won't guarantee you will win playing video poker.  

[djc32]

[QUOTE=notes1]

 
the impact of playing a machine would be impacted if i were playing everyday/everyweek. but, the difference between a 2% or 4% hold machine, when i may be playing it for 20 minutes or less, out of lifespan of 24/7, 20 years in service.[QUOTE]


If you are playing the same pay table every time you switch machines it doesn't matter if you sat at 1 machine for 14 hours a day or switched every 5 min, after 2 days and 28 hours of 96% games it's the reduction of the FH and flush that are going to make the biggest difference to your outcome , not how long you played a particular machine before switching to another or how long its been in service .

If it makes you feel better to switch to another machine with the same pay table every few minutes, there's nothing wrong with that, but at the end of a 28 hour session it probably wont make a bit of difference.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=djc32]If it makes you feel better to switch to another machine with the same
pay table every few minutes, there's nothing wrong with that, but at the
end of a 28 hour session it probably wont make a bit of difference.[/quote]Totally agree. It makes you feel better, but in the long run won't help much.  On the other hand, if switching machines helps you to stay positive that's a good thing.  What happens is this; we switch machines and occasionally something good happens.   Our brains try to make sense out of a totally random event and convince us switching machines works.  Video poker can sometimes get pretty tedious.  Anything that keeps me in the game is OK with me.