Understanding casino math

[FAA]

Thanks for the cool Trip Report chart, PPP. Clear and well formatted. Lots to consider. Plenty of hundred dollar busters in South Jersey. Of course, they could also bust with eight times the bankroll, as you did three consecutive times. I'd like to say you remained undaunted, but you wisely slashed your bankroll by 88% right after that trio of busts. Good luck this summer. 

[notes1]

lots of DDB volatility talk here. Here are my YTD results playing mostly .50 and $1 with some quarters. 99% or better machines always at max coin with sessions limited to 2 hours max.

trip number /// bankroll /// results
1.              $800        +600
2.              $400        +1800 (progressive and AWAK)
3.              $800        busted
4.              $800        busted
5.              $800        busted
6.              $100        busted
7.              $200        busted
8.              $800        +$1400 (AWAK)
------------------------------------------
   results +$1,100 and a couple crab leg buffets and Valentines dinner at the steakhouse.

Sounds good, but if one of those big hands hadn't hit, the results could be much different. Or, should I hit a $1 royal the tally could be way way positive.

Just trying to show how volatile this game could be. I guess you could put me in the math camp. Know your strategy well, play the best paytables you can find and keep in mind that you can't win everytime and you can't loose everytime.
  good info. it confirms what i have witnessed. if you do ot hit a premium hand, you are likely to have a long day. what is most interesting and fortunate for you is that you were able to hit those premium hands within just 2 hours of playing. take away the $3200 and you have a net loss of over $2k, with just 16 hours of play. i'll guess there our many who will confirm they have gone a lot longer than 2 hours w/out hitting something good.  

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=pokerpokerpoker]Know your strategy well, play the best paytables you can find and keep
in mind that you can't win everytime and you can't loose everytime[/quote] 

[Vman96]

Vman96 I have read a few of your posts and can tell that you have a much higher level of mathematics education than I do. I wonder if you can help me understand the following.Although there are 2,598,960 different hands many of those are identical for the player. For example, if you hit jacks or better it does not matter if the hand is Jacks, Queens, Kings or Aces and it also does not matter what the other 3 cards are. The same is true for almost all other winning hands, and of course if the hand is a loser who cares what the cards are. Do you know how many  "effectively" different hands there are?Thanks in advance



In terms of equivalent hand "classes" where the hold for each class is the same, ugh, not offhand. But it's probably a lot less in most VP games. If you look at a detailed JoB strategy, that would list most of them for JoB I'd think. Now obviously the probability of each "hand class" dealt to you varies greatly.

lots of DDB volatility talk here. Here are my YTD results playing mostly .50 and $1 with some quarters. 99% or better machines always at max coin with sessions limited to 2 hours max.

trip number /// bankroll /// results
1.              $800        +600
2.              $400        +1800 (progressive and AWAK)
3.              $800        busted
4.              $800        busted
5.              $800        busted
6.              $100        busted
7.              $200        busted
8.              $800        +$1400 (AWAK)
------------------------------------------
   results +$1,100 and a couple crab leg buffets and Valentines dinner at the steakhouse.

Sounds good, but if one of those big hands hadn't hit, the results could be much different. Or, should I hit a $1 royal the tally could be way way positive.

Just trying to show how volatile this game could be. I guess you could put me in the math camp. Know your strategy well, play the best paytables you can find and keep in mind that you can't win everytime and you can't loose everytime.

Thanks for sharing this. A good reminder that the game can look rough even when you're ahead! It amazes me this is my g/f's favorite game. Probably thanks to lucky hits with Aces...lol

[pokerpokerpoker]

[QUOTE=pokerpokerpoker]lots of DDB volatility talk here. Here are my YTD results playing mostly .50 and $1 with some quarters. 99% or better machines always at max coin with sessions limited to 2 hours max.

trip number /// bankroll /// results
1.              $800        +600
2.              $400        +1800 (progressive and AWAK)
3.              $800        busted
4.              $800        busted
5.              $800        busted
6.              $100        busted
7.              $200        busted
8.              $800        +$1400 (AWAK)
------------------------------------------
   results +$1,100 and a couple crab leg buffets and Valentines dinner at the steakhouse.

Sounds good, but if one of those big hands hadn't hit, the results could be much different. Or, should I hit a $1 royal the tally could be way way positive.

Just trying to show how volatile this game could be. I guess you could put me in the math camp. Know your strategy well, play the best paytables you can find and keep in mind that you can't win everytime and you can't loose everytime.
  good info. it confirms what i have witnessed. if you do ot hit a premium hand, you are likely to have a long day. what is most interesting and fortunate for you is that you were able to hit those premium hands within just 2 hours of playing. take away the $3200 and you have a net loss of over $2k, with just 16 hours of play. i'll guess there our many who will confirm they have gone a lot longer than 2 hours w/out hitting something good.  [/QUOTE]

You are right about that. If no premium kicker quads, aces or royals show up - I will go up in smoke in a hurry. If I do catch a good one, I go home. The trips I busted had one or two small quads to keep playing, but no biggies. On trip number 1, I managed 3 small quads and s SF in about one hour. Pushing 800 - 1000 hands per hour I should average about 2 quads per hour, hopefully they are of the premium variety. A long quad drought guarantees a bust out.

[notes1]

poker, as i stated to someone else, i am impressed by those who have the discipline to win and quickly walk away. the key to your current success is that combination of discipline and ability to hit  premium hands in a short time period. even at 1000 hands/hour, i am sure many posters would confirm they cannot hit premium hands with many thousands of hands played. your stats bring up another of the many differences between VP players. YTD, you have played just 8 sessions, just like myself, although my sessions are much longer. we have other posters who state they are going 3-4 times a week. playing VP is a big part of their entertainment, i am assuming some are retired. i believe it was always necessary to hit premium hands to walk away a winner, but the big change has been the reduction in paytables, which in the past, allowed one to stretch out their play. that reduction in payouts, along with any other changes that we are unaware of, has resulted in the cost of playing to increase. it is just simply more difficult to play often, without a larger bankroll, unless you make adjustments in your play.  

[FAA]

take away the $3200 and you have a net loss of over $2k, with just 16
hours of play. i'll guess there our many who will confirm they have gone
a lot longer than 2 hours w/out hitting something good.  Great point. Hell, take away one of those big hits and still a loser, but $20 an hour is a modest cost for the entertainment. It feels truly sickening to play two hours without at least a quad on humble JOB. $60 loser at snail's pace play. Most of it was on an 8/5, which did yield a quad on a prior visit. Never again. Super high traffic area at the poker room entrance to boot. 

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=notes1]


poker, as i stated to someone else, i am impressed by those who have the
discipline to win and quickly walk away. the key to your current
success is that combination of discipline and ability to hit  premium
hands in a short time period.[/quote]The question is "Can anyone beat a negative expectation machine long term?"  The only way to stay ahead of a negative expectation game is to hit and keep jackpots at a higher denomination than you normally play.  It takes some luck and a lot of disciple to do this. I play weekly and on numerous video poker vacations throughout the year.  I am normally a quarter player, but I always reserve a small portion of my weekly bankroll for very limited pot shots on $5 machines. I use the single coin Deuces Wild Cheap Progressive Strategy when I take these pot shots and never put more than $20 in the machine at a time.  Over a year's time you will hit some nice hands.  When I hit one of these, I put the money in the back of my wallet and go back to playing quarters.  This is not a strategy based on math and I'm definitely not turning professional any time soon, but it has worked for me over the past two years.

[FAA]

Phil, you use pot shots sparingly and judiciously. I have kept playing at higher denomination and gotten singed. If I had your even keeled personality, gambling would be such a great pastime. My equivalent to your back of the wallet solution will now be leaving an entire thin wallet stashed in a bag with the bell captain and fleeing casino for the next four to eight hours. I'll take like a twenty to the next casino; no four figure hit, but I will not bust.  Funds will be much more secure there than in the main wallet on my person. That much I know. I just can't trust my lack of discipline anymore.

[notes1]

Phil, you use pot shots sparingly and judiciously. I have kept playing at higher denomination and gotten singed. If I had your even keeled personality, gambling would be such a great pastime. My equivalent to your back of the wallet solution will now be leaving an entire thin wallet stashed in a bag with the bell captain and fleeing casino for the next four to eight hours. I'll take like a twenty to the next casino; no four figure hit, but I will not bust.  Funds will be much more secure there than in the main wallet on my person. That much I know. I just can't trust my lack of discipline anymore.


 you may not have his discipline, but importantly, you are aware of it. with that knowledge, you can still adjust your play and amount of time you spend in the casino. i think that is a real plus for you.