Understanding casino math

[FAA]

Oh yeah. Live and learn. Necessity is the mother of invention. I will experiment with denying myself access to the funds once I walk out the casino door. An extreme solution, but a guaranteed foolproof one. My visits will be much less stressful. Even if I wind up vegging out at Margaritaville listening to those awful songs, I will be solvent and happy.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=FAA]I have kept playing at higher denomination and gotten singed.[/quote]Me to.  I think we all have a problem walking out of the casino.  I get around that by allocating certain white tickets as strictly off limits and sticking to my rules.  It's hard, but I've been burned so many times it's getting a little easier each time.  I don't mind losing some money, but I hate going home totally broke more than anything in the world.  It's even more difficult to pull this off on a three day or week long trip. I don't do pot shots on those trips,  I treat the whole thing as one big session and let the cards fall where they may.   I don't count on pot shots pulling me out long term, but when I hit a good one I use it to prop up my bankroll instead of giving me a chance to play at a denomination that I really can't afford.

[pokerpokerpoker]

Speaking of lack of discipline. The other day I decided to hit the casino. I stopped ay the atm the night before and withdrew $320, $300 for VP and $20 for groceries. I didn't want to screw up this years positive results and stuck to quarters. Bank cards and credit cards were left home. After 1360 hands with 2 small quads I went bust. Damned if I didn't loose my grocery money too.

I was mad at myself, not for loosing the $300, but for going home dead broke. I had to scrounge up some change to be able to buy a pack of hotdogs and buns. Thankfully, the dogs were on sale. I couldn't afford any french fries.

[wildman49]

[quote=notes1]


poker, as i stated to someone else, i am impressed by those who have the
discipline to win and quickly walk away. the key to your current
success is that combination of discipline and ability to hit  premium
hands in a short time period.The question is "Can anyone beat a negative expectation machine long term?"  The only way to stay ahead of a negative expectation game is to hit and keep jackpots at a higher denomination than you normally play.  It takes some luck and a lot of disciple to do this. I play weekly and on numerous video poker vacations throughout the year.  I am normally a quarter player, but I always reserve a small portion of my weekly bankroll for very limited pot shots on $5 machines. I use the single coin Deuces Wild Cheap Progressive Strategy when I take these pot shots and never put more than $20 in the machine at a time.  Over a year's time you will hit some nice hands.  When I hit one of these, I put the money in the back of my wallet and go back to playing quarters.  This is not a strategy based on math and I'm definitely not turning professional any time soon, but it has worked for me over the past two years.








[/QUOTE]Phil the system works, you know it and I know it, still up 2k since starting the system full time late last year. YTD down $140, the only reason not up is just have not had the big hit on max bet. I am getting shots many 4 to the royals on max but not yet hit, but still know the system works and the hits will come. Thanks for sharing!

[notes1]

Speaking of lack of discipline. The other day I decided to hit the casino. I stopped ay the atm the night before and withdrew $320, $300 for VP and $20 for groceries. I didn't want to screw up this years positive results and stuck to quarters. Bank cards and credit cards were left home. After 1360 hands with 2 small quads I went bust. Damned if I didn't loose my grocery money too.

I was mad at myself, not for loosing the $300, but for going home dead broke. I had to scrounge up some change to be able to buy a pack of hotdogs and buns. Thankfully, the dogs were on sale. I couldn't afford any french fries.
 great story. sorry you lost, but the part about the hot dogs (no fries) gave me a good laugh. better luck next time. while you my not think so, you still showed some discipline, by leaving the 'cards' at home. you set a loss limit and stuck to it. one adjustment you may want to consider, go less often and take a little larger bankroll. one needs to have enough to get thru the bad cycles. stick to the quarters.  

[Mr.Dawes]

[QUOTE=pokerpokerpoker]Speaking of lack of discipline. The other day I decided to hit the casino. I stopped ay the atm the night before and withdrew $320, $300 for VP and $20 for groceries. I didn't want to screw up this years positive results and stuck to quarters. Bank cards and credit cards were left home. After 1360 hands with 2 small quads I went bust. Damned if I didn't loose my grocery money too.

I was mad at myself, not for loosing the $300, but for going home dead broke. I had to scrounge up some change to be able to buy a pack of hotdogs and buns. Thankfully, the dogs were on sale. I couldn't afford any french fries.
 great story. sorry you lost, but the part about the hot dogs (no fries) gave me a good laugh. better luck next time. while you my not think so, you still showed some discipline, by leaving the 'cards' at home. you set a loss limit and stuck to it. one adjustment you may want to consider, go less often and take a little larger bankroll. one needs to have enough to get thru the bad cycles. stick to the quarters.  [/QUOTE]This is why I buy groceries before I go to the casino. Hot dogs keep well in the freezer. For holidays like Memorial Day, Fourth of July and Labor Day most groceries stores have bogo sales on hot dogs. And my grocery store offers .05 cent per gallon gas discounts for every $50 spent. Combine this with coupons and your hot dogs will have a positive E.V.Better luck on your next trip!

[FAA]

withdrew $320, $300 for VP and $20 for groceries. I stuck to quarters. Bank cards
and credit cards were left home. After 1360 hands with 2 small quads I
went bust. Damned if I didn't loose my grocery money too.
I was mad at myself, not for loosing the $300, but for going home
dead broke. I had to scrounge up some change to be able to buy a pack of
hotdogs and buns. Thankfully, the dogs were on sale. I couldn't afford
any french fries.I know the feeling. I don't even allow myself card use given the $6 casino ATM fee. The small quads are so frustrating. You lose so much initially that you must trim betting by 60% and cannot make a strong dent in your losses. I've gone home hungry. I've ordered a Bloody Mary because I could eat the olives. Those days are in my rear view now.

[olds442jetaway]

Discipline has been my biggest downfall over the years and I am still working on it. I know most if not all will not do this, but if we get up for the session just 5% of our bankroll for the day, quit. Can't get five percent in the bank anymore. I can't remember the last session I was not up a small amount at some point. I think negative EV can be beaten, but the returns would be tiny most of the time. Like a faucet, the funds have to be turned off too at some point during the session and that should be decided before ever stepping foot in the casino. I know one vp player who wanders around until he finds someone who just dumped a load into a machine, lost , and walked away. He then sits down, plays the same game and when something even small hits, he quits. He is up for the year. Hit theory is the money dumped into the machine while not his is almost the same thing once you sit down and start playing where they left off. I know the machines have no memory and all of that stuff, but I know most if not all of us have seen many nice hits by someone who just sat down to play a machine that has just wiped someone out.

[FAA]

know the machines have no memory and all, but I know most
if not all of us have seen many nice hits by someone who just sat down
to play a machine that has just wiped someone out.Interesting post overall. Conversely, I saw the last transaction on a quarter VP as "PAID $1,007.20". That person hit the royal flush progressive. I played the two machines to its right and avoided it like the plague, as did others who walked by. I love looking at people who went belly up and then trying the thing myself. Half the time I get burned too.  Yeah, I'm always up at some point in the session. I like to gauge profit against the benchmark of what I put into that particular machine. If it's $20, I like to be gone at near 100%, before the inevitable backsliding chews up the profit.