Right or wrong move?

[alpax]

The people who believe any gambling game is a single long continuous game will play the correct strategy and accept the outcome, there will be many opportunities like this ahead of them if they choose to play the game in the long run. Like onemoretry said, a 24% percent difference in expected return is very substantial. There has been many arguments in the past from this situation, I discovered in the past there is a $5 difference in excpected return from playing quarter denomination. I know the repercussions for myself if I ruin on a session that it will be a long layoff between the next time I get to play. For that reason I avoid higher variance games. In general, I agree that for those that do not hold the kicker, DDB is a better alternative.

To take a look into perspective, getting that final 1 out of 47 card will be = 2.127% when playing the strategy of holding the kicker and hoping for that 4th ace.

There are 1081 ways to draw 2 cards from the rest of the deck of 47 cards (47 nCr 2) = 1081. The 4th ace is one of them, and there can only be 46 other cards to accompany them. There will only be 11 kicker cards remaining.

46 / 1081 = 4.255% chance you will get the 4th ace (with or without kicker)
11 / 1081 = 1.0175% chance you will get the 4th ace and another kicker.
35 / 1081 = 3.2377% chance you will get the 4th ace without a kicker.

Essentially by throwing away the kicker, you double your chance to get the 4th ace, but halve the chance to get a kicker along with it. The kicker is worth 5 times as much if you get it, so it is worth having to connect on the 4th ace 5 more times to make up for the deviation in strategy?

[BobDancer]

All of the responses so far are neglecting a major part of the problem --- and that is, this is an Ultimate X (UX) game --- where you get multipliers. How this hand would be played on TDB is irrelevant. And those responses that said "I don't really know that game, but this is what I'd do" aren't really helpful to somebody who's trying to study a game.In general, when the sum of multipliers is low in UX, you shift your plays towards getting high multipliers next hand. For example, with low multipliers, in DDB UX, with a hand like AA44K, the correct play is AA44 (because full houses have the highest multiplier) --- even though in regular DDB, holding AA is better by a mile.When multipliers are high (a 12x multiplier per line is as high as it gets), DDB UX strategy generally reverts to regular DDB. In regular DDB strategy you don't hold kickers with AAA --- so you don't hold a kicker here. Whether the original poster connected or not this particular time, holding AAA2 was a HUGE mistake.Useful strategies for UX are found on the wizard of odds website --- for a select number of games for select pay schedules. Other pay schedules have different strategies. If you can't find a professionally-created strategy for the pay schedule you find in your local casino, I strongly advise you not to play. UX has VERY DIFFERENT strategies than the base game and most players seat-of-pants adjustments are quite a bit off.There are enough games in your casino where you can find a good strategy. There's no need to play one where you can't.Bob

[Vman96]

so, you are playing TDB, get trip A w/kicker. you only have certain amount of money left to play, you have set yourself a loss limit. you do the 'perfect' play and do not draw the ace. you end up going home. or, you do the 'imperfect' play, draw 2 cards. you have 2 cards to get a single ace or get real lucky and draw the ace and kicker. even if you only get the single ace, you have 800 credits to play with. you could hit a premium hand with those additional credits. how does one calculate that kind of scenario, when determining the 'perfect' play? 

If the game is negative overall, there isn't really anything to consider. Improving your chances of not going broke doesn't gain you anything on a negative expectation game. Not playing at all is the best expected play for every future hand, but what fun is that? But on a positive expectation game...yeah, that would be an interesting thought. As not holding a kicker does lead to a bigger chance of making any hand with some amount of improvement.

Chance of NO improvement:
Hold Kicker: 43/47 = 91.49%
Don't Hold Kicker: 969/1081 = 89.64%

But I'm guessing the EV loss on the hand in question though outweighs the benefit of being more likely to improve your hand to rebuild your bankroll on any positive machine you would see in a casino.

And of course Bob is right, pointing out strategy changes in Ultimate X is probably more important than this sub-debate. But as he said, with 12X multipliers on board, strategy tends to divert to standard DDB.

[alpax]

I did not read the OP carefully it appears. Shame on me. The responses I have read made me think this was Triple Double Bonus.

[DaBurglar]

I can hardly believe what I'm reading here.

Keeping the kicker with the three aces in triple double bonus poker
is a superior play by about 24% - yet folks are tossing the
kicker!Likewise, I cannot fathom what is going on
here, where people/players/posters who, up to now, have always portrayed themselves as excellent/expert/superior video poker players are now openly and unequivocally admitting to making horrible decisions......I had to read (and re-read) this entire thread three times
before allowing my self to even CONSIDER adding a post;  too many people
it seems either did NOT read the original post properly, OR they felt
obliged to display their actual (and shocking) video poker incompetence
thinking that their personal "LUCK"   (SOMEHOW?)  makes up for the potential downward
drag on bankrolls and morale!!! From
the Original post, we know it is Triple Line (3X),  Double Double Bonus
(DDB)   (and NOT triple double bonus (TDB))    that is the actual game
being played;  and we know it is Ultimate X with the MAXIMUM possible
multiplier (12) being applied to the  final hand result/payoff, where
Three aces, a deuce and crapola are the original dealt hand which is to
be played and drawn to......!!!   Most people in their posts, it
seems, simply ignore or dismiss the fact it is Ultimate X  Twelve
(12X)  in determining whether or not they toss the deuce or hold it.  
Obviously, this is NOT the best way to approach this scenario.....and I
agree with B. Dancer 100% when he essentially chastises us all by
stating the harsh but beneficial truth that if a player is unable to
find a optimum strategy chart for the actual game he/she/it is yearning
to play (which allows the player to learn HOW to play the game
correctly),  then in all honesty, he/she/it SHOULD REFRAIN FROM PLAYING.....end of story.     With all that being said, as for me personally on how I would play:   I am NOT
holding the deuce when I make my play under the scenario outlined in the
Original post....this is the correct mathematical choice!   As Vman aptly points out, if someone intentionally CHOOSES to hold the deuce (the opposite of MY choice play, the correct math play), the resulting error in DDB is NOT a HUGE deal (in terms of sheer margin, or "%") compared to what happens when the exact same hand is played in TDB and someone tosses the deuce, or "kicker"......in TDB the resulting error is VERY significant and over the long haul will definitely harm your profitability and bankroll in general.    This is beyond dispute.....But what is even MORE significant, IMHO, when people such as Jeter, and especially Tedlark (who triumphantly exclaims "THIS IS MY WAY!" of playing TDB when he describes making the clearly WRONG mathematical play of tossing the kicker), describe making such bad plays on this SPECIFIC scenario, is the next question that is asked is "Well, what OTHER plays do these players make in the course of their video poker sessions" that are so obviously BAD and which they are so enthusiastic (and convinced) about "always" making...???    Still winning and having "Significantly" profitable sessions 80% of the time Ted????

[notes1]

so, you are playing TDB, get trip A w/kicker. you only have certain amount of money left to play, you have set yourself a loss limit. you do the 'perfect' play and do not draw the ace. you end up going home. or, you do the 'imperfect' play, draw 2 cards. you have 2 cards to get a single ace or get real lucky and draw the ace and kicker. even if you only get the single ace, you have 800 credits to play with. you could hit a premium hand with those additional credits. how does one calculate that kind of scenario, when determining the 'perfect' play? 
  as i only play single line games, my post above referred to my outlook regarding a single line scenario.  

[DaBurglar]

    as i only play single line games, my post above referred to my outlook regarding a single line scenario.  I understand what you are saying and where you are coming from notes1, and my post was NOT directed at you since you rarely if ever tout or trumpet your own personal video poker playing exploits, nor do you spend time denigrating or criticizing  others regarding their own play, or their opinions and perception and belief regarding certain aspects of video poker (or in other words, you are NOT a hypocrite)......I totally empathize (there's that word again) with players who reason  while playing TDB that, when dealt triple Aces (or even trip  2's, 3's or 4's ),  that it is more worthwhile to toss everything and go for that fourth   Ace    Deuce    Trey   or   4-four-quatro ...... they feel it is "enough" of a positive result or good thing just to catch that  "special or premium"  four-of-a-kind, to hell with the kicker!    If they also catch a kicker, then fine, great, that's a bonus in their mind!   But as has been shown and pointed out, this type of thinking is strictly short term and narrow in its scope, and will cost the TDB player significantly over time ...... But, as we all know, definitions of such things  "over time", or the "Short term"  or  "the long term"  or "long run"     are  totally subjective and may or may not impact any given TDB player  in a major way......A player may go an entire 4-5 hour session  of TDB and never actually catch the scenario we are focusing on (trip Aces with a kicker.)    Or he could catch it repeatedly in the span of a single hour long session.......you never know.    But still, most of us prefer to play the odds and go with the strongest math play.

[notes1]

i was not replying to just your post. i had not noticed that the discussion began about a game i never play. multi line with a multiplier is not something i have any experience with, so i was making clear the subject of my post. i try to avoid subjects i have no experience with.  but, i stick by my original post. i know the 'perfect' play, but i can attest that i have had more positive results from just saving the 3 A, as oppossed to the suggested play. and, as i asked in my post, how does one calculate the possibility that getting a win of 800 credits, does not prolong one's play and enables them to win on another opportunity. the perfect play may result in not playing at all.  finally, as i have stated before, i do not accept the long term math is as important to my results, because i spend such a short time playing, out of the length of time the machine's odds are based.

[Tedlark]

  DaBurglar please try to stay on topic and stop trying to skewer me.     But to answer your question: yes. Please review the post from my most recent trip to Four Winds when I hit a nice little keno jackpot and then pulled a 1g royal a few moments later. Apparently I'm not only lucky in video poker and you should be the last person to give advice on video poker.  

[DaBurglar]

  DaBurglar please try to stay on topic and stop trying to skewer me.  Ok   I'll stop trying to skewer you;  it was such a easy target this time I could not resist......but it sucks though doesn't it, when someone goes out of their way to "skewer" you in the midst of a otherwise interesting topic/thread?    maybe now you will think twice and refrain from the practice yourself  But to answer your question: yes. Please review the post from my most recent trip to Four Winds when I hit a nice little keno jackpot and then pulled a 1g royal a few moments later. Apparently I'm not only lucky in video poker and you should be the last person to give advice on video poker.  Where was I giving advice?   and around here, it is not "advice" unless (or until) someone actually TAKES it (or pays you for it, whichever happens first)    At least I now have you flat out admitting all this alleged success is simple, pure luck, nothing more.   Which is fine, everyone gets lucky, even me (just not at VP or Keno).....No, you seem to forget, or miss the real issue.....it is not so much that people find it hard to accept you might actually be getting all these "hits" , it is that MORE than likely, you are failing to divulge or admit all the downside that INEVITABLY ALWAYS comes to gamblers who play as often or as much as you must be to be reporting the number frequency and amount of "hits" that you are.....that's all.It's really quite simple and straightforward......people always talk about what they "win"   but you rarely if ever hear the same people discuss the "down side" (which we all know is there.....it has to be unless they are cheating.)      That's what always bothered people like you (and a few others here), the fact that I have been straight up honest from the get go about my results, how often and how much I actually lose......sure I have indeed had some great hits which i also report, but my overall results have been negative, and in AC exceedingly so well beyond expected statistical norms (i.e.  3 standard deviations.)     And, as has been shown now on this site, MOST players also have overall negative results.......you, somehow are the lone exception.