accuracy

[BobDancer]

Misterlister:You have just been given a large amount of information you asked for. You are apparently incapable of recognizing how valuable that information is.You remain a non-believer --- which is your right. But at least others here now understand better. Providing you more information is a bottomless pit. You are capable of casting aspersions on absolutely anything I say or do. It is fruitless for me to talk to you.I will therefore take the position in the future with you as I do with Notes1 --- namely ignore you and any posts you make. Bob

[MPD001]

[QUOTE=misterlister]
Precise explanations threaten my ability to continue to do it. Nonetheless, consider the following. It may help you understand why your "if he wins he must be eliminated, so if he isn't eliminated it must mean he's lying about winning" argument is overly simplistic:        1.   It's not casinos that restrict you. It's people within the casino. Having relationships with such people is useful. It takes time and energy to create and maintain such relationships.       Â  2.   People have vastly different skills and interest in establishing and maintaining these relationships. Someone without such relationships often believes "everybody who can win against a casinos should be treated the same." People with such relationships realize the world doesn't work that way.       Â  3.   The casino workers in charge of restricting players in, say,  2010 are often not the same people doing it in 2015. "Purges" happen at different rates at different places. Getting re-established is possible. Sometimes compromises are possible where the player doesn't have full participation access, but has enough to make it a worthwhile play. Negotiating such compromises is not a trivial skill.       Â Â  4.    Being a writer and radio host cuts both ways. For some casinos, since I've shown in print I'm a competent player (at least), they want no part of me. (MisterLister seems to think ALL casinos should and do act this way. He's incorrect.) Other casinos recognize that I say nice things about the casinos I play at; Casinos want me to say nice things about them. On occasion I've had some harsh words about casinos that have "done me wrong." Some casinos believe that if I strongly and persuasively criticize them, it'll hurt their bottom line. I don't actively threaten casinos, but it serves my interests for casinos to believe that allowing me to play has benefits to them.          5.    Other casinos recognize that if I say I play at the South Point (for example), other players without my skills will think, "If the South Point has good enough games for Bob Dancer, surely it has good enough games for me too." To the extent that happens (and it does, although it's not directly measurable), a casino can profitably allow me to play even if they lose money on my individual play.            Â Â  6,  The owner of the South Point, Michael Gaughan, believes (probably correctly), that having me teach classes there brings in people who would not otherwise frequent his casino. Most play some on the day they go to classes. He knows that I'll talk about the South Point promotions during my classes. He finds that a reasonable advertising expense that probably pays for itself.              Â  Mr. Gaughan also believes my classes create more enthusiasm for playing than they disseminate knowledge people remember. It's not that I'm holding back information in my classes. It's just that to become a successful player you need to work VERY HARD and most of the people who show up at my classes aren't willing or able to do that.  They still learn something though. If their "gambling budget" was to lose $100 a month, for example, after classes it will take them twice as long to lose that much money. The casino doesn't suffer from this and the players get real value.           7. In any given year, I'm a winner some places and a loser other places. It's a small margin I'm operating on (although generally larger than the 0.1% someone quoted in one of these threads recently) with considerable variance. The casinos I was successful at in 2015 are not the same as the ones I was successful at in 2014 or 2013. No casino knows my overall numbers. I don't publish those. If I run for public office (don't hold your breath), possibly I've have to publish my tax returns. Until then, I don't.            8.   Sometimes I win in "special categories." In the past five years, for example, I've won more than $250K in casino drawings at a wide variety of places (plus two cars), in six different states. Sometimes casinos don't count that in a player's win/loss total because they have already budgeted those promotional expenses and for the most part don't care which player receives them. But I count that money the same as if it was won at a machine. Choosing which drawings to enter and how many tickets to earn is every bit as much a part of advantage play as to knowing which machine to play and how to play the hands correctly. Being too smart to "win every week" at the drawings is a lesson not everybody has learned.           9. Each successful player has his own arsenal of techniques. Most aren't writers, for example, but there are many other techniques as well. Figuring out those techniques is part of what you have to do if you are going to succeed. Expecting others to create a roadmap for you won't likely work for you because you don't have the same skills and tools that they have. Having LeBron James write a book accurately describing how he does what he does wouldn't allow me to dunk a basketball! However good a teacher he is, he's not good enough to get this 68-year-old that far off the ground! (Fifty years ago I could touch the rim with my fingertips. That's as good as it ever got for me dunkwise.)             There are several other techniques that I don't wish to share. It's a LOT more complicated than "if the player wins, he's out. Period." Perhaps you now have at least a glimpse now into this process than you did ten minutes ago.               For what it's worth, my next ten week semester of free video poker classes will begin at the South Point on Wednesday September 16. If  you're in town on Wednesdays, I promise you'll learn something. The full schedule may be found at www.bobdancer.com/seminars
[/QUOTE]
Bob, in all the years that I have followed your posts on this site, this was, BY FAR, the best contribution to VP advantage playing that I have seen you make. As a result, I actually may have to change my opinion of you. Although I stay on The Strip, I will be in Vegas in October, and I may have to make a trip over to South Point on a Wednesday to shake your hand.

Thank you for some very good insight.   

[alpax]

It probably took more than 30-45 minutes to write out the insight and yes I have gained more knowledge in a 10 minute span and see the value of it.

[notes1]

mr. dancer, i have never cared whether you responded to any of my posts. you have reinforced how highly you think of yourself.

[Minn. Fatz]

i am sorry to break this to folks, but people lie, some lie all the time. they will lie about anything to get out of trouble, get out of a mistake they have made, they will blame their misfortune on someone or something else. Ran into this interesting article today about the psychology of slot machines. The authors claim slot players who become problem gamblers are actually drawing legitimate conclusions from misleading information that the machines are deliberately programmed to deliver.Outside the casino world, think of things like Horatio Alger stories, private for-profit colleges, multi-level marketing organizations or the first episode of that new reality show last Thursday night on Fox with the ten contestants and three judges...

[Minn. Fatz]

          5.    Other casinos recognize that if I say I play at the South Point (for example), other players without my skills will think, "If the South Point has good enough games for Bob Dancer, surely it has good enough games for me too." To the extent that happens (and it does, although it's not directly measurable), a casino can profitably allow me to play even if they lose money on my individual play.I have always thought that were I a blackjack pit boss I'd want one player at each one of my tables sitting behind a sizable pile of chips, whether that person was counting cards or not. I'd think the attraction factor for players who hadn't a hope of playing nearly that well would more than make up for any losses from the one counter and be much more attractive than a couple of players sitting there looking glum because they can't beat the autoshuffler.[quote](Fifty years ago I could touch the rim with my fingertips. That's as good as it ever got for me dunkwise.)[/quote]And I used to think I'd shrunk a little since my high school days. Wow.

[notes1]

everyone on this site has developed a relationship with some business/vendor at some point . give them more business than others and they may give you better service or maybe a discount. but, they are still going to make money off you. no matter how much they like you, want your business, they are not going to lose money on doing business with you. keeping that business relationship in mind, no casino is going to lose consistently to any player, without getting something MORE in return.   is it possible that one could sell their reputation to draw players to a casino, give them unrealistic hopes of winning, the casino makes money and rewards the 'draw' with a percentage of the new players losses? is it possible one would endorse a property to receive something in return? there are other ways to get money from a casino than winning at a machine.   there are lots of folks selling something. in this world i expect proof, i just do not believe someone because they say so. as far as getting elected, what an ego.

[alpax]

everyone on this site has developed a relationship with some business/vendor at some point . give them more business than others and they may give you better service or maybe a discount. but, they are still going to make money off you. no matter how much they like you, want your business, they are not going to lose money on doing business with you. keeping that business relationship in mind, no casino is going to lose consistently to any player, without getting something MORE in return.   is it possible that one could sell their reputation to draw players to a casino, give them unrealistic hopes of winning, the casino makes money and rewards the 'draw' with a percentage of the new players losses? is it possible one would endorse a property to receive something in return? there are other ways to get money from a casino than winning at a machine.   there are lots of folks selling something. in this world i expect proof, i just do not believe someone because they say so. as far as getting elected, what an ego.

I thoroughly enjoy this and many other insights from you. Not everyone's lives are entirely immersed into the game of video poker as we deal with the politics of outside of game such as casino operations and government regulations. Keep them coming.

I enjoy the broad perspective of topics available on these forums so I keep coming back for more.

[notes1]

[QUOTE=notes1]i am sorry to break this to folks, but people lie, some lie all the time. they will lie about anything to get out of trouble, get out of a mistake they have made, they will blame their misfortune on someone or something else. Ran into this interesting article today about the psychology of slot machines. The authors claim slot players who become problem gamblers are actually drawing legitimate conclusions from misleading information that the machines are deliberately programmed to deliver.Outside the casino world, think of things like Horatio Alger stories, private for-profit colleges, multi-level marketing organizations or the first episode of that new reality show last Thursday night on Fox with the ten contestants and three judges...[/QUOTE]
 according to NATIONAL COUNCIL OF PROBLEM GAMBLERS, 2-3% of adults have a problem with gambling. this is much lower percentage  than problem drinkers. what do you want to do, ban booze, ban gambling, ban advertising so folks do not overspend, the list is endless. you want protection from everything that someone could abuse. there is something called common sense, discipline and personal responsibility. and let's note, YOU brought politics into this. 24 million folks found last night's debate worth watching. maybe, there were just there to see trump, i do not know. but, what i do know, there were many more folks on the stage that were much more qualified than what your party will offer. b/t/w, maybe you can answer the question that your florida congresswoman could not answer, WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A DEMOCRATIC AND A SOCIALIST? as head of the dnc re-election committee, she could not tell chris mathews.

[notes1]

alpax, thanks so much for the kind words. this is the only site i have ever posted, because like others, we all love playing VP. i have played for about 9 years, so i could not offer the experience of others. i am not a math expert (although i like what they offer, up to a point), so i couldn't add anything and i am a small time player, so nothing to offer regarding large denomination play. i did think i could offer some insights from a financial/business perspective. although casinos have a certain mystique, they are just a business. everyone on this site has worked at one time or another. and each person expected to be paid and some received benefits. whether it's private business or governement, the monies to pay those costs come from extracting monies from someone else. the next time one walks into a casino, just take a moment and look around. hotel clerks, folks bringing drinks, cleanup folks, techs, security, etc. they all need to be paid. and, most of them are working hard. so, the next time we slide a buck into a machine, just think about all the fixed costs, expenses, taxes, regulatory costs that need to be taken out first, before anthing is paid out. it is no wonder that few (if any) walk out with more than they brought in over the long term. it's entertainment and it costs money to provide that entertainment.