Is Video Poker a Game of Skill or Luck

[alpax]

I think Mr. Dancer meant to refer to people who participate in online sites or message board communities, 10% to 15% of them are the break even players.

I still think that is way too much. Although apHeat dot net, vpFree, LasVegasAdvisor, Mendelson Best Buys, and WizardOfVegas could be the prominent sites with such knowledgable players, their user base is way smaller than tripadvisor or VegasMessageBoard (a lot of high rollers there). The word "several" was described, I do not know of any other sites with high level players.

[notes1]

I think Mr. Dancer meant to refer to people who participate in online sites or message board communities, 10% to 15% of them are the break even players.

I still think that is way too much. Although apHeat dot net, vpFree, LasVegasAdvisor, Mendelson Best Buys, and WizardOfVegas could be the prominent sites with such knowledgable players, their user base is way smaller than tripadvisor or VegasMessageBoard (a lot of high rollers there). The word "several" was described, I do not know of any other sites with high level players.
 i choose not to ASSUME what he was stating. are there any other assumptions you have made, where you were corrected? i am looking for clarification from the source. with all the lies, bragging, misinformation that exists on the internet, i would never make a percentage assumption, from that source. i thought math folks wanted real numbers, don't they normally criticize others for stating something without verification. if most VP is played at quarter demination (do not know if this is true), and the 10-15% figure was based on play across the country, i would guess VMAN could provide info on how many casinos do not have a single machine that offers a positive machine. 

[alpax]

I do not exactly know how to interpret it but on Page 3 of this thread you could see a post made by him.

[QUOTE]
I would guess between 10% and 15% of players at least break even. I can't prove that number, but it's an informed guess by someone who is in contact with many, many players, on several sites.
[/QUOTE]

I have my doubts, but people who participate in these such internet sites *might likely* have a higher interest in the world of gambling than those who do not.

Most people I've watched play VP spanning more than a dozen different casinos do play at quarters. I choose to play at dollar stakes to get the better odds even if it means I am not bankrolled to play marathon sessions to hit jackpot hands.

[notes1]

i understand how you made your assumptions, but i believe it is a mistake to use those assumptions and speak for someone else.   i also think it is a mistake to assume that the majority of those who frequent casinos, also post at online gambling sites. no proof, but i doubt most VP players have any idea who dancer is. unlike you, i only visit two VP (or any other gambling site) and only post on this site, but my observation is that it is the same limited number of folks, who do the vast majority of posting. how can anyone draw any conclusions from such a small sample size. again, it goes against all that the math believers endorse. 

[brmcc74]

$.25 is the most widely available denomination so it stands to reason it's the most played. Another thing that people don't realize is that while you travel across America and play positive games, a lot of places especially Vegas will strongly reduce the amount of promotional points you earn on your players card for the better percentage games that you play. So you're playing positive games but not earning any points in some cases. They've pretty much covered any arena where you may have a great advantage. There's where luck comes in handy. If you want to believe that 10-15% people break even then that's your right. I however know factually that 10-15% of people don't play anywhere near perfect strategy. It's very difficult to play nearly perfect.

[FloridaPhil]

At the casinos where I play the high limit rooms are empty and the quarter machines are full.  It has also been my experience that the odds on quarter games are lower.  Except for a few rare exceptions, they run in the 96-98% range in the Southeast where I play the majority of the time.  To play any VP game with these odds and break even takes a lot of luck and a large amount of discipline.  I seriously doubt 10-15% of quarter players have either.  I don't believe it's because they are less intelligent, it's because very few quarter players are dedicated enough to develop what is required.  If they are and they do, I believe luck will eventually turn on them and they will find themselves among the losers.  I do not have any experience with positive quarter games, so I don't know if anyone is beating them long term.   I would like to think it's possible, but I do not know for sure.

[FAA]

Except for a few rare exceptions, they run in the 96-98% range in the
Southeast.  To play any VP game
with these odds and break even takes a lot of luck and a large amount of
discipline.  I seriously doubt 10-15% of quarter players have either. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Great point. I'm in a smaller minority than I thought. I will ratchet the break even segment to 5%. Still, it's not all that hard to pull off. Play 9/6 JOB quarters where it's readily available. That should corral 5% of VP players. Play mostly CS and don't do anything stupid. If you get reckless, hasta la vista bankroll. It's a taut tightrope every single session. You can't let your greed gene destroy you. Keep your fire dry, take max coin shots sparingly. You may miss the joys, but will readily escape the pain. I expect a BE or small loss whenever the statements roll in.

[Vman96]

The percentage of "break even" players across the country somewhat boils down to how many play strictly 9/6 JoB (because better games are hard to find outside of Vegas, especially at quarters) and how generous the casino's players club and mailers are. And also how accurate people are playing. I know my local is about 100% after mailers playing 9/6 JoB. I consistently get about 0.5% coin-in back with my mailers.

[FloridaPhil]

I have never seen a 9/6 Jacks quarter video poker game in Florida. 8/5 is about the best it gets and 7/5 is common.  The only 9/6 quarter Jacks game that  we have played in the Southeast is at the Island View Casino Bar in Gulfport MS. Better get there early as the seats fill up fast and stay that way.  I don't drink, but I tip the bartender anyway.

[notes1]

The percentage of "break even" players across the country somewhat boils down to how many play strictly 9/6 JoB (because better games are hard to find outside of Vegas, especially at quarters) and how generous the casino's players club and mailers are. And also how accurate people are playing. I know my local is about 100% after mailers playing 9/6 JoB. I consistently get about 0.5% coin-in back with my mailers.
 thanks, when it comes to casino math, i trust your numbers. because i do not play JoB, i cannot verify whether all the casinos i have played at have such a paytable, but i doubt outside of nevada, they are plentiful. you mentioned someting i had not thought of, when it comes to dancer's contention that 10-15% of players break even or better. my own limited experience is that most players i see are not playing JoB, but rather they are playing games with even worse odds. and, a growing number are playing less than max coin, which reduces their odds even more. for those who believe in the math, when one combines the reality that few machines outside of nevada have possible positive expectations (including free play), that many play games with even lower expectations than JoB, that many do not play properly, it calls into question how one can assert that 10-15% of VP players, in the modern era, can break even or better.