Is Video Poker a Game of Skill or Luck

[New2vp]

Luck allows some people to "at least break even" even on negative machines.  A couple large jackpots can do that.  Mr. Dancer did not qualify whether he meant "break even" over a day-long session, a week, a month, a year, or a lifetime.  He also did not qualify a specific number of hands over the period.Someone wins the progressive jackpots, royals with multipliers, or is simply over-royaled during a period of time that allows them to "at least break even," especially if one considers comps and/or cash back and free play.  Someone in casino management probably knows the exact numbers for their own casino for those who use players' cards.  It is possible theoretically to work out the exact distribution of a negative game with a given number of hands, but is a bit of a pain to do without specialized software for a very large number of hands.  VPW has a facility for running and graphing the distributions like this for a few thousand hands (or more if you give your computer some time) ... and some of the time the outcome is in the black.

[olds442jetaway]

I have never seen a 9/6 Jacks quarter video poker game in Florida. 8/5 is about the best it gets and 7/5 is common.  The only 9/6 quarter Jacks game that  we have played in the Southeast is at the Island View Casino Bar in Gulfport MS. Better get there early as the seats fill up fast and stay that way.  I don't drink, but I tip the bartender anyway.



     I wish I could beam down some of the older vp machines Phil from Mohegan sun. If anything, they have brought some more of the older machines out of storage that offer 98.91 deuces and 99.54 job beginning with the quarter level and that one bank of nickel machines that pays 800 for 1 on a spin poker game with just one bet still exists. That bank is only 96% though, but great fun on lean days. I don't know why they removed the 99.1 bonus games some years ago for job, but anyway enjoy the play, the car, and good health this year.

[FloridaPhil]

The best we have in quarters right now is 98.9% deuces at the Hollywood Hard Rock.  If we play for 2-3 days and they throw in free rooms, drinks and some food, it's not a bad game.   My wife has been over royaled lately, so she's having fun.  I'm treading water but it's better than going under. 

[BobDancer]

The best we have in quarters right now is 98.9% deuces at the Hollywood Hard Rock.  If we play for 2-3 days and they throw in free rooms, drinks and some food, it's not a bad game.   My wife has been over royaled lately, so she's having fun.  I'm treading water but it's better than going under. 


Why on earth would you play a quarter 98.9% game (possibly sometimes at single coin if you revert to your silly CS ways) versus $1 99.54% 9/6 JoB game?They have a 0.625% slot club there and generous comps. And promotions. And I suspect you get much better mailers playing $1 games than 25 cent games. Depending on what you can use the comps for, and how easy they are to sell, it's possible you have a positive game there playing 9/6 JoB. And you play a game where the house has the edge?Plus, you've claimed you're a multi-millionaire (well, actually you claimed you've made a lot more money than I have --- so it that's true, that makes you a multi-millionaire). Why not play a dollar game where you have the edge rather than a quarter game where you don't? 

[royal flush]

well put

[FloridaPhil]

[quote]Plus, you've claimed you're a multi-millionaire (well,
actually you claimed you've made a lot more money than I have --- so it
that's true, that makes you a multi-millionaire). Why not play a dollar
game where you have the edge rather than a quarter game where you don't?[/quote]Playing dollars is potentially a bigger loser than playing quarters by a mile.  You act as though playing a 100% game is a guarantee of winning.  Good luck with that.  According to your own statements, you need 3-5 times the royal as a bankroll.  This would require a bankroll of $12-$20K and I have better things to do with my money than give it to a casino.  To me video poker is a game and nothing more.  My money goes to my family, charity and my church, not some casino.

[alpax]

They have a 0.625% slot club there and generous comps. And promotions. And I suspect you get much better mailers playing $1 games than 25 cent games. Depending on what you can use the comps for, and how easy they are to sell, it's possible you have a positive game there playing 9/6 JoB.

I could not get too much of an interpretation of the comp/cashback rates for the Seminole Wild Card casino club from looking at the website, I did look for it in the past and the only part I see are the requirements to get into the Elite tier which is 3750 status points, I do not know how much coin in of play is required to get a status point or such.

If you are getting the percentage off of the casino's vpFREE entry, it might be off by a decimal point (or a factor of 10). They refer it as $4 coin in per point, and 400 points for a $1 worth of comps. Been following the recreational forums too much not to ignore it.

However the players reviews between the Tampa branch and the Hollywood branch are night and day.

Tampa is very stringent on comps ever since they brought over someone previously from MGM over to run operations. One person got less than $100 in free play for a $60k coin in. Hollywood is very generous on comps as it states on the page, if a quarter player gets hotel stays, I'd view that as generous.

I also agree with the math and would rather play JoB at dollars stakes than Airport Deuces for quarter stakes in hopes for mailers.


Playing dollars is potentially a bigger loser than playing quarters by a mile.  You act as though playing a 100% game is a guarantee of winning.  Good luck with that.  According to your own statements, you need 3-5 times the royal as a bankroll.  This would require a bankroll of $12-$20K and I have better things to do with my money than give it to a casino.  To me video poker is a game and nothing more.  My money goes to my family, charity and my church, not some casino.


It is none of my business with what each person does with their money, weather if more than 95 percent of those multi millions were already donated away or spent hence the need to reactive when it comes to thousands of dollars. I do believe in the worst case scenario with Mr. Dancer's strategy is that if you lose, you lose much less than the average recreational player so more money to give away to a greater cause. If you are able to win against the house, you could give that winning to the greater cause without sacrificing your own funds.

The most common flaw with the anti-math thinkers here is they only see that 4 quarters goes into a dollar so they believe things will get 4 times worse by going with dollar stakes, but they do not have advanced knowledge in probability distribution curves to see that better odds over the long run does make a huge difference. The denomination is just a variable multiplier, the pay schedule is the constant.

[brmcc74]

9/6 job is a negative expectation pay table. Then you have to play PERFECT to even obtain this average. Then add your mailers which don't come often on $.25 play. Then finally we get to the ror. These are all facts. There are few people who when asked (what would you hold on these five cards?) could answer correctly after they say, well that depends on what game we are playing. Very few. The people who can do this are so skilled that they often don't realize most people are incapable or lack the drive needed.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BobDancer]Why on earth would you play a quarter 98.9% game
(possibly sometimes at single coin if you revert to your silly CS ways)
versus $1 99.54% 9/6 JoB game?[/quote]Some players play video poker totally for recreation and don't care about math, perfect strategy or proving anyone right or wrong.  When you play for fun, video poker changes.  You enjoy pitting yourself against the game itself instead of attempting to beat the system.  Playing cheap gives you all kinds of interesting options.  You are free to openly experiment and when you find something that works, you are excited about it.  You don't need to risk a lot of money to enjoy video poker.  Despite the claims, playing 100% games will not guarantee you will be a winner today or in your lifetime.  If you chose to take that chance, go for it.  Personally, I don't think it's worth the risk.

[wildman49]

The biggest math problem is 99.54% on 9/6 jacks. Most of us can't get there with poker play alone. It's more like 97.54%. The only way for me to get to near even is I have to gather up more free play per month doing thing the casino frowns on but it's the only way I can get to the 99.54% on jacks. Maybe the Vegas machines play different then the machines in the east, It's tough going where I play and without a big amount of free play to off set the losses the pay back is never gonna be 99.54% with poker alone.