Is Video Poker a Game of Skill or Luck

[Tedlark]

notes in an effort to promote fairness I will offer that DaBurglar has offered here, on this website, to sell hotel rooms to people quite possibly in much the same manner that Bob Dancer may have.

[notes1]

brmcc, i give you credit for sticking to your point of view.   i/m/o, FP would have been better served to stick to his assertion that winning is not likely, for most VP players. this is a valid point, that i believe you agree with and most of us who live in the real world of VP, have learned the hard way. his mistake was to merge his CS into the same conversation.  if nothing else has come out of this conversation, it is the lengths one must go to, just to play on a positive machine. and, playing on a positive machine does not assure anyone of winning. $2m put through the machine in theory gets one a gain of less than $10k, at the tampa property. i'll make an exception to my own rule of never advising anyone on this site about how to play VP. if your goal is to make money at most casinos, spend less time and effort and go flip burgers. you will likely make more money. 

[BobDancer]

b . $2m put through the machine in theory gets one a gain of less than $10k, at the tampa property. You keep assuming there are never any multiple point days or drawings or tournaments at that casino. At most casinos, these types of promotions abound. Nobody is claiming that the Tampa property is the best one to play if you want to make money gambling. The relevant point is that there IS financial opportunity when FP insisted that he had to play bad games because there were no positive opportunities near where he lived. My argument is that he didn't know what he was talking about. If he wants to argue that he doesn't like Jacks or Better, or he is uncomfortable betting dollars even though he is a multi-millionaire (it doesn't seem to bother him in Deuces Wild on occasion), then that's his choice. I'm certainly not telling him he HAS to play that game. Any estimate I make of how many players there are winning is just that -- an estimate. I know my finances, but don't know in depth anybody else's. (As I recall, notes1, you have also demanded I publish my tax returns. Not going to happen!) I have seen the lifestyle of several players I strongly believe to be net winners. I've been in their homes. I've seen their cars. I've discussed various promotions with them and they know what they are talking about. I have study groups with players who are successful gamblers. These guys are good!Your statement that most people can earn more flipping burgers than they can from video poker is absolutely correct! Most people lose in a casino. It takes more intelligence than most people have. It takes more hard work than most people are willing to put in. But the best players can earn far more gambling.I also believe that most people can learn to play well enough to get low cost vacations --- if they apply themselves. I further believe that most people aren't willing to apply themselves.But some people here claim there are no winners. That is nonsense. Just because any one particular person doesn't have the skill to win doesn't mean that nobody has such skill.That's like saying I since can't consistently hit a 3-point shot in basketball , it is therefore it's impossible for Steph Curry to do that. Nobody knowledgeable would make that argument in basketball, but more than one person here makes that same type of argument with respect to winning at video poker.

[alpax]

For the record, I've never sold booze of any sort out the back of my car. I have, however, sold show tickets and hotel rooms and automobiles on occasion to people I know --- at a discount. This has never been a major source of income for me. It has added only about $200K-$300K total over the past 20+ years.

My apologies for writing an inaccurate statement about selling booze for additional bankroll as well as stating that it came from your LVA column. It may be a rumor that I saw on the Wizard of Vegas forums in the past that Shackleford operates (he is still an Administrator but now run by the company that bought his Wizard of Odds site), I usually try to avoid stating anything I do not know 100% as a fact.

I just understand the bottom line is selling good for cash is one way of getting a return from the casino and adding to the bankroll to survive negative swings.

The opportunity that Mr. Dancer had in the past compared to what we have now is vastly different, it is no exaggeration that some members here are making. There is no Desert Inn offer for 1% cashback and double points for entering a $500 entry fee slot tournament. Going to the bankroll calculator feature on Video Poker for Winners software and putting in 2% as Cash Back the bankroll required is far smaller than the SouthPoint double point days 0.6% as Cash Back on Jacks or Better. People are not comfortable coming up with a bankroll that is worth someone's house.

It is evident Mr. Dancer enjoys basketball, but using that comparison is not feasible. Now and days, millions of people around the world can tune into NBA.TV, ESPN, or any sports network and see video highlights of Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, Kawahi Leonard, LeBron James and such tearing up the basketball league almost every night. Everyone could even see their stats on a game by game and season by season basis on the websites. We will not get to see how Mr. Dancer does his thing in action or the stats on paper, though I firmly believe he is capable of winning.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=alpax]We will not get to see how Mr. Dancer does his thing in action or the
stats on paper, though I firmly believe he is capable of winning.[/quote]I also believe he is capable of winning.  His post tells exactly how he does it. He sells his strategy for money then in the same breath tells
the same players they are not intelligent, skillful or
hard working enough to do what it takes to win.  How does that make you feel?  What he is doing is daring you to
prove him wrong.  Then, to make himself seem credible he throws in a
sentence about wanting to help you get low cost vacations.  There very well may be rich gamblers in the world. Personally, I think they are among real poker players, not slot machine wannabees.  The only
one profiting from today's video poker are those profiting from players not the
game and Bob Dancer is the absolute king of that world.  Here's the pitch...[quote=Bob Dancer]I have seen the lifestyle of several players I strongly
believe to be net winners. I've been in their homes. I've seen their
cars. I've discussed various promotions with them and they know what
they are talking about. I have study groups with players who are
successful gamblers.[/quote]Here's the disclaimer... [quote=Bob Dancer]Most people lose in a casino. It takes more intelligence
than most people have. It takes more hard work than most people are
willing to put in.[/quote]Here's the comphy part...[quote=Bob Dancer]I also believe that most people can learn to play well enough to get low cost vacations --- if they apply themselves.[/quote]All I ever did was give players a way to lose less money playing negative games, I didn't charge a dime for the information and according to some people I insulted Muhammad and should be beheaded.  What's up with that?  I think you know, unless of course you're not intelligent enough.

[notes1]

[QUOTE=BobDancer]
You keep assuming there are never any multiple point days or drawings or tournaments at that casino. At most casinos, these types of promotions abound.   i live in NC, there is only one casino, Cherokee. i know every machine in my denomination, i know every promotion. it takes over 4 hours to drive there. it makes no sense to make a long drive, for any promo, that may have limited potential. it is the only driveable casino for, nc, sc, tenn and ga. i do not know as much about Tampa, but the most compelling promotion i have seen is a give away of free play dollars at regular intervals. the promotion lasts for many hours. i would have no way of knowing how to calculate the possibilty of a single person winning one of those, with thousands of people eligible. on top of that, one would have to hang out in the casino for a 6-10 hour time period.   
 the indians control both states, there is no competition. this is the reallity for some players. and, the cost of traveling to some destination, that gives a small theo advantage makes no financial sense. you live in vegas, there are dozens of properties within a short drive, all competing for one's business. it would not be that hard to check out the best machines, best days to play at any casino. it is just absurd to keep selling the same story, that the average recreational player has a vast array of options to play VP with an advantage. 

[notes1]

i am still wondering about the legality of selling a comped hotel room. i wonder what the casinos would say about this? and, does one declare that income on their tax forms? or, because it was comped, the IRS would not consider any money received from the sale, as declarable income? never did any of that so i have no idea.

[alpax]

I just think that since casinos are considered private property, they can set their own rules (except for the city's resort fee taxes) and choose to allow which people to step foot on the property. A comped hotel room is provided to the benefit to the person playing, and on the fine print just about every casino club has a clause that the card/benefits may only be used by the person named on the card. Also on the fine print, casino management reserves the rights to revoke a person's club memberships and restrict their benefits. Caesars is particularly strict about this, where they have revoked many Total Rewards memberships to those allowing other to consume their benefits. I believe Ted has come across this situation at a Caesars property, where the cardholder must be present to reserve the room. The one exception I've heard (no truth behind it) is the recent high roller member who joined the Mendelson forum and taking jabs with the banned folk here, he surprisingly said he does not have to be present at the CET/CZR property to check into the hotel because of his status.

I do not think it has any bearing to those filing as a professional gambler, unless the hotel room they are staying at was paid by their own expense. I believe any complimentary things from the casino they consume cannot be listed as an expense to write off the tax.

With regards to positive opportunities, it is more like a person has to do a lot of whatever it takes to go after them rather than waiting for whatever it to come. There is not very many such opportunities for quarter DDB players. Since you play at Cherokee, which is a Caesars/Total Rewards property (not sure if T.R. will be sold off this year), you have to value the perks that Seven Stars provide, otherwise its pointless to pursue it.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=notes1]It is just absurd to keep selling the same story, that
the average recreational player has a vast array of options to play VP
with an advantage.[/quote]Exactly.   If waiting around the casino all day hoping to have your name drawn in a raffle or selling hotel rooms and sunglasses is what it takes to be a winner, I'll pass.  Bob Dancer's world is so far out of reality for the average player it might as well be on Pluto.  Everyone with a brain knows this, but he's the king of this forum so they are afraid to contradict him. Apparently all the millionaires Bob envies are big spenders.  I think this has to do with his Vegas lifestyle.  A million dollars is not what it used to be.  Many older people have multi million dollar retirement accounts and you don't see them driving around in flashy cars and living in big houses. Just because you worked hard all you life and have been fortunate enough to accumulate some serious money, doesn't mean you are foolish enough to give it to a casino.  I hate losing more than I love winning, so I play as small as possible.  Video Poker is a game of losing more times than winning.  If the big hands happen, you're good.  If they don't, you lose and the bigger you bet the more you lose.  Some players like me don't believe the risk is worth the cost.  It's not that we are less intelligent or skillful, we have different motivations. 

[olds442jetaway]

I think nearly all of us can be short term winners. It happens to me on about 90% of my visits to the casino. By short term, I mean you get ahead a small amount early on in your session. The longer you stay, the more likely it will vanish and the downward spiral begins. The only way to be ahead after a very long session as many have pointed out is to hit one or more premium hands. This rule applies no matter what game you are playing. I know a few locals who live just a few minutes away from the casino. They play almost every day and when they are ahead even a dollar, they quit, go have coffee and chat with their friends. Most are retires on very limited budgets. A couple of them have the discipline that I wish would rub off on me a little. They also take advantage of the free coffee and club that the casino offers for even small players over 60 years old. They seem to be a happy bunch. Good for them. Edited to add...anyone ever see a clock in a casino?