do you trust your beliefs?

[notes1]

on another thread, there is a young poster asking questions about becoming a gambling pro.  along the same line of thought, i have read many posters who state the machines are random and the math is indisputable. these same players obviously love the game, i am sure are plenty smart to play accurately and some have financial security. why not take some or all of your financial security, play VP and use your winnings to fund your lifestyle/retirement?  if the math, over time, eventually works out as it is supposed to and postive games do exist, it seems pretty simple. you will make money or at least that is what we are lead to believe. and, you get to have fun doing it. 

[FloridaPhil]

I do believe the games are fair.  I also believe some people make big money playing video poker.  That said, I think anyone who would bet their life savings on video poker is nuts or at least slow in the head.  There are just too many variables.  Despite the math, jackpots do not always show up on time or ever.  For sure some people have very successful careers as professional gamblers, but does that mean you are going to be able to do it?   I started putting my money in the stock market 40 years ago and have never regretted it.  Live frugally, save your money, stay married, don't make stupid mistakes and the biggest problem you will have in retirement is health and taxes.

[EDC1977]

To risk ones life savings on a gamble is foolish. There are no guarantees and it will become a job and not recreational play. Even if I was in better shape financially, I still wouldn't risk it.

[Lucky Larry]

Sweet C and I worked too hard to risk giving up our life style on VP gambling. Gambling on the stock market is enough for us. Besides I like to eat too much, sleep in a nice bed, and have a roof over my head most of the time. However; if one of the 1% ers would like to sponsor me at say $500K-$1M/year I'd really consider it.

[notes1]

i readily admit i have no expertise about VP, i never give advice about how to play, but i know a little something about investing. there are no guarantees when it comes to investing in the stock market. from what i read from some on this site;-play only positive machines-play 100% accurately-all play is continous-play with proper bankroll-the math cannot be disputed-all machines are honest-all casinos are trustworthy-paytables reflect expected results-play long enough, the expected will occur thus, it seems a logical conclusion, that if one does all the above, one is guaranteed to win. this is not my opinion, just the only conclusion i can draw. i just wonder if those who believe in the above statements have considered trusting those beliefs for real.

[FloridaPhil]

Putting your money in the stock market is not gambling, it's investing.  Through the stock market you are allowed to buy ownership in the best companies in the world and share in their profits.  Like video poker your bankroll fluctuates on a short term basis.   If you only stay in it for the short term or you jump in and out, you will most likely miss the royal flush...  Unlike video poker, there are hard working people behind these stocks and we live in a country where they are allowed to succeed.  America is the financial engine of the world and people are clamoring to get into it, some even risk their lives to do so.   I want to invest in something that people have that kind of passion about.

[Carcounter]

Years ago, there used to be quite a few pros in AC believe it or not. The one thing I noticed is how unhealthy they all were and how they seemed to age before my eyes. All that sitting in smoke filled casinos, free food, and stress of the lifestyle took it's toll. Don't understand why a young person who is smart enough and disciplined enough to be a VP pro, couldn't be successful at another career. The pros in AC disappeared when the good games were pulled. The stress of hoping that the casinos wouldn't take the good games out must have been unbearable.

[BobDancer]

i readily admit i have no expertise about VP, i never give advice about how to play, but i know a little something about investing. there are no guarantees when it comes to investing in the stock market. from what i read from some on this site;-play only positive machines-play 100% accurately-all play is continous-play with proper bankroll-the math cannot be disputed-all machines are honest-all casinos are trustworthy-paytables reflect expected results-play long enough, the expected will occur thus, it seems a logical conclusion, that if one does all the above, one is guaranteed to win. this is not my opinion, just the only conclusion i can draw. i just wonder if those who believe in the above statements have considered trusting those beliefs for real.Assuming you're generally paraphrasing my beliefs, you should also include taking advantage of casino promotions. Often the games return less than 100% before you include the promotions, and more than 100% afterwards.All machines are honest? --- that depends on the state. I certainly wouldn't recommend you play at racinos in New York or any casinos in Washington.All casinos are trustworthy? --- as Nersesian says, "Indian Casinos have a license to steal." Other casinos have, on occasion, been caught in scandals. On the whole, playing video poker in regulated states is a safe gamble."thus, it seems a logical conclusion, that if one does all the above, one is guaranteed to win." --- your logic shifts here from expectation to guarantee, and that's a big shift, and NOT a fair statement of my beliefs.Being very likely to come out ahead --- that's a fair conclusion. Being guaranteed to come out ahead --- no, no knowledgeable person makes that claimIf you have the skill and discipline to follow the recipe notes spelled out, investing in video poker is FAR SAFER than investing in the stock market. Video poker deals with the mathematics of a 52-card deck. That's well understood, mathematically speaking. You can work out the odds for any of your swings, up and down.The stock market --- I'm not denying that they are based on real companies --- is subject to world wide events. The Chinese government could tomorrow impose a policy that will send our market tumbling by hundreds of points --- in spite of how much honest hard-working Americans are trying to do the right thing. The "right" terrorist attack will do the same. Do you know when and where that's coming? I certainly don't. But I'm pretty sure it IS coming --- again and again.In 2007-2008 the market lost half it's value and the vast majority of experts didn't see it coming. (Many of the experts who DID predict it have also regularly predicted other doom and gloom scenarios that haven't come true.)  The market caught itself and recovered that time --- but it didn't have to. Whichever political party you like or don't like, the experts in the administrations of both G W Bush and Obama were in vast disagreement as to how to make the situation better. Will the market stumble like that again?  Probably. There are so many bots making trades these days, it's very likely something will trigger another crash sooner or later --- but who knows for sure? Will it catch itself the next time it tumbles like that? Who knows?The vast majority of my bankroll is invested in the stock market. I'm very aware of it's long-term record and I'm glad to hang on for the ride. My total bankroll would be less than half of what it is today were it not for the stock market. But for dependable income --- give me video poker any day! I've been "all in" investing what most people would consider to be large sums of money in this game for more than 20 years. My expectation is to continue to do so.The people who argue the other side of this are generally not conforming to the conditions set out --- particularly only playing games where you have the advantage and playing them at the 100% accuracy level. Those are critical assumptions and necessary to make the conclusion valid.You can say you don't like the games where you have the advantage --- fine that's your right, but you're not following the starting conditions notes set out.You can say you're a recreational player and you are allowed to play any damned game you want --- fine that's your right, but you're not following the starting conditions notes set out.You can say you can't find good games close to you but you "must play" anyway because you really like the game and nobody can tell you what to do --- fine that's your right, but you're not following the starting conditions notes set out.If you don't follow those starting conditions --- it's reasonable to disagree with the conclusion. But if you DO follow the starting conditions --- yes, you are very, very likely to succeed. Not every day. There will definitely be big swings along the way. But over time I like your chances for success. 

[FAA]

If only JOB was positive in AC. I will happily settle for 99.54%. Even with this concession, very satisfied. RFs have been on or ahead of schedule. Fortunately, two of the three were max coin. 

[Carcounter]

Congrats FAA. Bet you thought that next RF would never come. Was it on the progressive at Caesars?