do you trust your beliefs?

[case]

Where I live the VP pay tables are just not good enough to make long term money. But I do enjoy the game so I play. Not big money but for my own entertainment. We go to Vegas many times a year and while there we play the best VP we can.

Just because VP can be beat in the right scenario does not make it an ideal job. Maybe someone who could make a "projected" salary of say 5,000 dollars playing VP OR make 50,000 in his regular 9-5 job, the choice would be a no brainer. The 50,000 is steady, sure income. The 5,000 is nor guaranteed and not predictable. So to play a positive game is not the best choice for everyone (to make a living).

I am another stock guy. I drip dividend stocks and do not pay anyone to manage it unless I sell and then it is only 9.99. Dripping has been the best thing I have done money wise in my lifetime.

[notes1]

[QUOTE=notes1]

 i still contend, that a reasonable person, could conclude if the conditions mentioned on the list were met, that over time, one should be a guaranteed winner.
I wonder if that same "reasonable person" would also believe that, if you flipped a coin 10000 times, the result would be exactly 5000 heads and 5000 tails? [/QUOTE]
  if i remember many of your posts, you have defended the casinos integrity, the machines are indeed random and the math prevails. play positive machines only, play 100% accurately and over time, one should be a winner. 'over time', why is that not true? isn't that what you believe/selling?   

[onemoretry]

If you do all the right things, you have a much higher probability of winning. That is not the same as being guaranteed to be a winner.

[BobDancer]

If you do all the right things, you have a much higher probability of winning. That is not the same as being guaranteed to be a winner.

I agree completely --- and think I said basically the same thing.Insofar as 10,000 coin flips with a fair coin coming up exactly 5,000 each way, the probability of exactly that happening is very small. The odds of coming us with somewhere between 4900-5100, or any other range you can come up with, for each are much more reasonable. Make enough small bets with a small edge, and the odds greatly favor you coming out ahead.I have no interest in flipping a fair coin. I want to flip a coin where the odds favor me coming out on top. Many of the posters on this site are comfortable flipping a coin where the casino has the edge.Many of you have games in your area where you could be a slight favorite if you exploited them properly. Certainly FP has a 99.66% game available for dollars --- with a slot club --- with mailers --- with promotions at his closest casino. Is that over 100%? I don't know for sure. I haven't studied the nuances of the slot club, mailers, and promotions there. But I'd be willing to bet that it is over 100% at least some of the time. And those are the only times I would play -- although I would play for higher stakes than dollars.The dollar game has a lower hourly cost than the quarter or 50 cent games FP prefers --- with a significantly lower variance. The better game "bores" him. So be it. His choice. But the opportunity is there if he wants it.

[BobDancer]

. I am sure of one thing.  If I told my wife that I was going to withdraw $500,000 to play video poker has an investment strategy, she would call a doctor first then her lawyer.  















And she'd be right to do so!You have clearly demonstrated by your posts that you are not willing to do what it takes to be a winning player --- even though the opportunity is right in front of you. Over the past five or ten years, your gambling score is significantly negative. Whether your wife understands it's because you insist on playing bad games, and insist on making plays the software tells you is wrong, I don't know. She might even believe that your CS strategy was a good one! All she knows if you're a net loser. I'm assuming that it's a "small" amount relative to your total wealth/bankroll and she see's it as a "hobby expense" you both enjoy, but enjoying a hobby for small amounts and deciding to invest in large amounts are two different things.I don't know for sure if $500,000 is a large sum of money for you and your wife --- it would be for most families ---  but without more skill and discipline that you've shown, it's only a matter of time before you'd squander it away. And since that is her retirement you'd be spending, she'd have a right to be upset and to try to do something about it.On the other hand, my wife has plenty of evidence that I've been successful and I know how to gamble at video poker successfully. She has reason to trust my decisions. Withdrawing large sums might make her a bit nervous, but it's unlikely she'd seriously try to change my mind if I told her that there was a good opportunity at hand. And it's also unlikely that I would risk anywhere near enough to put our total bankroll in jeopardy. I understand the Kelly criterion much better than to do that. Whether you understand it or not, when it comes to investing --- whether in the stock market or video poker --- I do take a conservative approach.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=BobDancer]You have clearly demonstrated by your posts that you are not
willing to do what it takes to be a winning player --- even though the
opportunity is right in front of you[/quote]Fair enough.  My wife and I consider video poker as enjoyable recreation and an opportunity to spend quality time together.   To us, it's the same game at $1.25 a hand that it is at $5.   We are not trying to prove anything and we are going to play the way we want because we like it that way.  If it costs us a couple of bucks to do so, fine with us.  I will say that following your advice of picking the best games, learning the best strategies and managing our money well earns us cheap vacations and days of fun that we otherwise would have to pay for.  For that we are grateful.The only problem we have with the character "Bob Dancer" is his attitude toward recreational play.  Players play video poker for a lot of different reasons.  Your definition of video poker success is different than many people as making a long term profit is not necessarily the all encompassing overall  factor in how they chose to play the game.  This does not mean they are stupid, unskilled, undisciplined or unsuccessful.   If you acknowledged this and backed off your attitude a little, we think you would win more fans.  Perhaps we are misinterpreting your comments, but it sure seems that way a lot of the time.

[notes1]

when i started this topic, i never expected anyone to take the position that playing VP would guarantee a winner. i did not expect (and hoped) that no one who plays recreationally would bank their retirement nest egg on VP. after all, no matter how one wants to look at it, the game takes place in a casino, thus it is gambling. there was only one poster who was/is willing to bet a large share of his wealth on VP. whether he is successful or not, we only have his word.   the point i was trying to make was the even under perfect conditions, one can lose money. and, most of us, have much less than perfect conditions to play under. so, when some get defensive when folks like myself state no one likely wins, when in fact, maybe some incredibly small tenth of a percent do win, i would suggest that those who endorse the idea of winners, make mention that the odds are still largely against that happening. the best most of us can hope for, under todays conditions, is to lose less, and that still takes luck.

[BobDancer]

 This does not mean [ I am ] stupid, unskilled, undisciplined or unsuccessful.  











            You forgot to add stubborn and repetitious. Was that intentional?          Seriously, I have never posted any of those adjectives to describe you, Phil.          I've never even THOUGHT any of those adjectives described you or anybody else on this forum

[BobDancer]

[QUOTE=FloridaPhil]             I've never even THOUGHT any of those adjectives described you or anybody else on this forumApril Fools!

[FloridaPhil]

Got it!!