Question on big payouts in bars.

[jsm2016]

It seems I've missed the boat, but in case it's still in harbor, a question.Bob Dancer mentioned he played 10- and 100-play draw poker and spin poker. I am familiar with these games and know they carry high variance. How does Bob come out ahead despite the large swings?

[billryan]

I can't tell you what he does, but the key is having a large enough bankroll to withstand bad swings.
As a blackjack player, I've undergone negative swings several standard deviations from my expected value, but because I had a large enough bankroll, it never became an issue.
If you play a positive expectation game, in the long run you get positive results. If you play a negative expectation gamein the long run you get negative results.
If you can pull enough out of cash back and players club promos, you might turn a slightly negative game into positive territory.

[notes1]

so, if one properly plays a positive expectation game long enough, you are guaranteed to win?? 

[billryan]

If you don't understand the difference between " the long run" and playing long enough, I'd suggest you do some reading on the subject.

[notes1]

so, if one plays a postive expectation game, over the long run, they are guaranteed to win? 

[DaBurglar]

I can't tell you what he does, but the key is having a large enough bankroll to withstand bad swings.
As a blackjack player, I've undergone negative swings several standard deviations from my expected value, but because I had a large enough bankroll, it never became an issue.
If you play a positive expectation game, in the long run you get positive results. If you play a negative expectation gamein the long run you get negative results.
If you can pull enough out of cash back and players club promos, you might turn a slightly negative game into positive territory. This last line is the key to the whole concept of Bob's  "Video Poker for winners"........it requires a lot of research, discipline, keeping track of details that most people overlook, etc  in order to always know where and when you actually have a true "advantage" when playing video poker.As I have said many times, what Bob does is NOT rocket science nor some nebulous practice.   Like most things in life that are worth while it requires WORK, and discipline, among other qualities most people lack.That said, I get turned off from what Bob does mostly by BOB (and not just his personality or the way he seems to treat others), because his whole gig is also comprised of a standard, for-profit business that he keeps fairly "low key" and de-emphasizes it enough so that people do not grasp that HIS profit is not centered (or "Dependent") on actual video poker, although he does earn obvious revenue from VP simply from the volume of play he engages which yiled hits like his recent poker bar jackpot.....but you cannot count on that.Also, what actually counts as "profit" in the whole "Advantage player" universe is sometimes pretty silly......Oh sure, free giveaway clock radios and pots and pans, and food are all nice, but I myself do not want to have clutter in my life and call it my video poker "winnings".  I remember a long time ago (2004 maybe?) when Jean scott had a segment and she talked about all the free t-shirts and jackets and trinkets she has won/earned over the years, and how she has a garage full of this stuff.    That's great, good for her......she has grandchildren and I guess they got used to getting casino promo material for x-mas every year.    <cue Austin powers> "That's just not my bag!"

[DaBurglar]

If you don't understand the difference between " the long run" and playing long enough, I'd suggest you do some reading on the subject.I've only recently started reading your posts, but it seems you simply want to shout out to the world that "HEY!  I've got a Huuuuge bankroll so I can play these positive expectations games long enough and deep enough so that eventually I will ALWAYS turn a profit! (probably)!!!"If that is so, please just say it......if you want to spar with notes1, I can tell you from personal experience he is a worthy adversary with a no nonsense approach to just about everything......I freely admit I am sometimes guilty of my own personal brand of "nonsense" mainly for my own entertainment (and others) and thus he and I often clashed but I also know we have each other's respect.I suggest you keep your "sparring" respectful.

[billryan]

In order to succeed in either video poker or blackjack, it's essential to have adequate financing.
I've spent fifteen years rubbing elbows and learning from world class blackjack players and the most important thing I've learned is without a proper bankroll to withstand negative swings, these games will crush you. To avoid a huge negative swing, you need a huge bankroll. It doesn't matter if you are playing quarters,as I do, or $5 like some BSDs do, if your bankroll isn't adequate for the stakes you play, you'll get crushed. My blackjack bankroll was quite large for the stakes I play, but I once sat at a table with Charles Barkley who lost several times my bankroll in a few hands.
No Bragg, just fact.

[notes1]

If you play a positive expectation game, in the long run you get positive results. If you play a negative expectation gamein the long run you get negative results.
 
 i ask again, if one plays a positive expecation game, in the long run, are you guaranteed to win?

[billryan]

[QUOTE=billryan]
If you play a positive expectation game, in the long run you get positive results. If you play a negative expectation gamein the long run you get negative results.
 
 i ask again, if one plays a positive expecation game, in the long run, are you guaranteed to win?[/QUOTE]


Its funny that you accused me of misquoting you and threw a hissey fit because I left out "and higher" when responding to you.
You asked for a civil discussion and when it didn't go your way, you reverted to name calling. Now you three times have twisted what I said.
I came here to learn from experts. Its pretty obvious that's not going to happen with you.
As to your question.
In blackjack, a person with a 1% edge has over a 99% chance of being ahead after 100,000 hands, and about a 99.9 chance after a million. Ive never met an advantage BJ player who wasn't a net lifetime winner. I would imagine its not much different in VP, especially since dozens of WC BJ players have switched to video poker in the last five years or so. When folks were literally wrote the book on Advantage BJ switch over to VP, it speaks volumes to those who understand the language.
These people aren't giving up six figure incomes for a chance, they are doing it because they see it as a better use of their time.
Nothing in life is guaranteed. The only sure bet in the casino is insuring a blackjack and its a sucker bet, even though you win 100% of the time.