Not one AWAK in 125,000 hands and counting

[olds442jetaway]

I play very little DDB at Mohegan Sun . All I know is when I play 9/6 job the quad Aces, 2s,3,s and 4s, come streaming in like there is no tomorrow, especially if I play bet 1. Sometimes 3 of the same quad in the same night usually those are aces or 2s.

[asteroid]

The gaming commission would be reluctant to investigate this because if casinos don't exist then their (the gaming commission employees) jobs go away too. It is very expensive to keep the doors open these days, so the casinos have no choice but to rig the machines or go out of business (and they have shareholders to answer to also). It is all legal since there are loop holes in the legalese - just like when Clinton was asked if he had sex with Monica Lewinksi ( he successfully argued "It depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is). All the casinos have to do is go out no further than 2 1/2 standard deviations on the Poisson distribution when cheating vp players and it would be very difficult even for an independent agency to prove that the games were rigged. When playing VP, I can't tell you how many times I've unsolicitly been asked by an adjacent player (total stranger) when the last time it was that I hit a natural RF. Or the way more than 3/47th of the time when I've observed (or heard other players talking about) a discard being replaced by the same rank of a different suit in a four card hold. Anyone doubting this hasn't played a lot of VP IMHO.spxchrome....nothing you say sounds "crazy", although you have the same problem i do in that this plausible theory of yours, based on your diligent and keen observance (which you are to be commended for) lacks definitve proof.....I have several plausible working theories on what exactly is transpiring in today's video poker machines in places like AC, in order to explain the undeniable fact that players IN GENERAL (there are always exceptions to every trend or rule) are finding it much harder to  simply break even, let alone win, playing today's games and machines, and the simplistic "it is the lower paytables" just does not cut it.......something in the way today's games operate is happening that was not there 10 years (or more) before......as I said earlier, I believe 2011 was the definitive "tipping point" in AC for me where the games went from merely being "Difficult" to break even with to downright IMPOSSIBLE in the most extreme sense of the word!Re-seeding, faster chip randomization, etc  just does not cut it either.....just as with SLOT MACHINES back in the early 2000s, where the "VIRTUAL REEL" was added thus enabling casinos to offer games with MORE than 3 reels (and thus making it even MORE absurdly difficult for players to hit large jackpots on slots, allowing for the ridiculous number of "1 cent" denom games that take 250 or 300 credits (2-3 bucks) a spin), i believe something similar has been done with video poker games......don't know exactly what, but it is something.   Like you, I know this sounds absurd, but it is the only logical conclusion, given the results a player consistently sees these days.    As I have shared and documented over the years here, since 1992 I have seen and heard second hand (and third and fourth hand too) many stories and accounts from other players I have known, other employees and executives (past & present) in casinos I have known, and certainly from other friends who either play or know things themselves......This is the same with everyone else here; we all have seen, heard and learned stuff over time.    And I can definitely state that I have formulated many of my theories on exactly what and how VP works (or can work) based on what I have sen & observed and heard.....EVEN THIS LATEST THEORY OF YOURS SPX, which you shared above in your post, now is added to my inner "files" for rumination and application if and when the time comes where I encounter a similar situation or observe what you have seen!Again, VIDEO POKER is a game made, run and played by human beings.....as such it can and is subject to change, manipulation and the whims, foibles and weakness of human nature.   In a corrupt world where shenanigans take place with regularity all over the place, it would not, and should not, surprise any reasonable human being to find out that Video poker today is infested, or saturated, with games that do not simply operate with the previously held assumptions that all you have is a RNG, a paytable, and a simple program to reconcile the results.     There is something more to it, something more going on.....there has to be.    You just cannot have a massive amount of change take place in a specific time period, where a significant majority of players ALL report the same or similar findings, experiences and results, the vast majority of which are NEGATIVE or "BAD", and chalk it up to simple variance or chance or coincidence.....As always, this is just my opinion and take on what I see, learn, hear and conclude based on evidence presented to me.   And as always, I maintain that I WISH (and hope) I am 100% wrong, that video poker is (and remains) shenanigan free and that my apparent, sudden (5 plus year long) turn of putrid luck will suddenly and abruptly turn into outrageous good fortune!     I doubt it, but I hope......in the meantime I continue to search and analyze and formulate theories on what the hell is happening out there.

[wildman49]

  Or the way more than 3/47th of the time when I've observed (or heard other players talking about) a discard being replaced by the same rank of a different suit in a four card hold. Anyone doubting this hasn't played a lot of VP IMHO. I have seen this for years. Only suppose to see it 11% of the time but I see it nearly 50% of the time.

[paco13]

[QUOTE=asteroid]  Or the way more than 3/47th of the time when I've observed (or heard other players talking about) a discard being replaced by the same rank of a different suit in a four card hold. Anyone doubting this hasn't played a lot of VP IMHO. I have seen this for years. Only suppose to see it 11% of the time but I see it nearly 50% of the time. [/QUOTE]

I see this multiple times every time I play. Always makes me wonder.

[Webman]

The 5th card flipover theory?I did an experiment on that one with a skeptic a while back:http://forum.videopoker.com/forum/forum ... TID=2249If anyone wants to actually record the results of a similar experiment, I'd be interested. Many dismiss it as a perceived phenomenon (better remembering the incidents where you have a match than when you do not), rather than something genuine. It doesn't take long to measure it accurately.In fact, if you wanted to spend a few dollars on the experiment you could get a lot of data quickly by just holding 4 cards each time and recording the results.If you believe it happens close to 50% of the time, then you won't have to spend much for valid data and it could even be proven in a short video, since some would probably doubt a simple report.

[Vman96]

[QUOTE=asteroid]  Or the way more than 3/47th of the time when I've observed (or heard other players talking about) a discard being replaced by the same rank of a different suit in a four card hold. Anyone doubting this hasn't played a lot of VP IMHO. I have seen this for years. Only suppose to see it 11% of the time but I see it nearly 50% of the time. [/QUOTE]

But you also had one of the hottest streaks on earth with royals last year? You were one of Phil's biggest proponents!

And at least do the math right on the expected value... 3/47 ~ 6.38%

And next trip to Tunica, I'm tempted to tape a boring session of betting a penny of holding 4 cards every hand and seeing what happens. The same rank on the draw card will be much closer to 3-10% (yes, there is variance because I doubt I would do more than 100 hands because of boredom/it will cost me a dollar) than 50%!

If it really shows up ~50% for you, there is only one simple answer. QUIT!!!

[wildman49]

If it really shows up ~50% for you, there is only one simple answer. QUIT!!!
Guess I struck a nerve. Since my wife just flow out to Phoenix to see the new grand baby I have a lot of time on my hands to do trials on this. Spending the night tonight at the casino and will post my results tomorrow. These trials I will do, will be on JOB max bet. I would be totally shocked at 6% so I shall see. Thanks for your input webman now you got me thinking! edit to add: This also happened once again. Tuesday a player next to me holds four to the royal and hits. Between me, my wife and my buddy we have had over 200 Four to the royals this year no hits. I know just bad luck.  Five minutes later its my turn with four to the royal and needing the ace of hearts nope. Can you guess what the first card in the next hand was?

[FAA]

Five minutes later its my turn with four to the royal and needing the
ace of hearts nope. Can you guess what the first card in the next hand
was?--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Programmer/coder has a wicked sense of humor!

[wildman49]

Here is my report on 4 card holds getting the same throw away card back in another suit.I am very VERY shocked by my findings and need a big helping of humble pie.I played JOB 5 nickels a hand. I was going to play it out to 100 holds as Fa La La La La.... La la la la and Webman did but when I got to hand 50 of the 4 holds I throw up the white flag as it only happened  3 times in 50 hands. 

[notes1]

Here is my report on 4 card holds getting the same throw away card back in another suit.I am very VERY shocked by my findings and need a big helping of humble pie.I played JOB 5 nickels a hand. I was going to play it out to 100 holds as Fa La La La La.... La la la la and Webman did but when I got to hand 50 of the 4 holds I throw up the white flag as it only happened  3 times in 50 hands. 

you reported your findings accurately, you deserve a lot of credit for that, bravo. does not happen often enough.