Major mistake?

[markinca]

[QUOTE=markinca] [QUOTE=notes1] [QUOTE=markinca] is is a similar situation to holding AAA over AAA+k in TDB - you'll hit a lot more quads, but lose more long term.


I don't know how many times I have to say it but I'll say it again: THE MATH IS NOT A GUARANTEE. For any one gambler, anything can happen. [/QUOTE]

then your statement above is incorrect[/QUOTE]

No, it's not. I clearly said LONG TERM. I fear I'm being trolled at this point.

[notes1]

fear of being trolled? my fear is our kids are being taught inaccurate info by someone who cannot admit they made an erroneous statement. two can play that game.

you cannot take a mathematical fact that is based on a large sample size, over an infinite time period and apply it to a single players results, long or short term.

thus, your statement, 'you'll hit a lot more quads, but lose more long term', is not a statement of fact, that applies to every player.

anyone can make an inaccurate math play, over the long term and come out ahead.

if it takes place in a casino, it is gambling.

[markinca]

thus, your statement, 'you'll hit a lot more quads, but lose more long term', is not a statement of fact, that applies to every player.

anyone can make an inaccurate math play, over the long term and come out ahead.

Long term as in hundreds of millions of hands? Yes, that statement is fact, and yes, it does apply to every player. It's 'possible' to come out ahead in the same way that it's 'possible' for a plane to drop out of the sky and kill you in the next 10 minutes. Possible, but effectively impossible. If this is the type of probability you're clinging to, then good luck to you. I hope you have a healthy savings.

And no, you are just flat wrong. No one (I guess I should say 'virtually' no one, since I know you love being a pedant) can make an inaccurate math play OVER THE LONG TERM and come out ahead. How do you think casinos make their money? Magic? It's because they push an edge over the LONG TERM. Why do you think it's not possible (not counting comps/cashback/etc) to make a living playing 9/7 TDB? Because over the LONG TERM, the 0.4% house edge cannot be beaten. LONG TERM. LONG TERM. REPEAT AFTER ME, LONG TERM.

I don't know who taught you math, but you were shortchanged. Or maybe you just weren't listening in class, I don't know.

Anyway, I'm done going back and forth with a professional troll. Go antagonize someone else.

[notes1]

I have no problem admitting when I am wrong, been wrong before, will be wrong in the future, but, before I do, let me make sure I understand you correctly.

it is virtually impossible for any single player, to deviate from the proper play on VP, consistently, over the long term, and have a better result than if the correct play were made.

so, in the original post on this thread, no one, who does not keep the kicker, over the long term, can possibly end up with a better result, than one who kept the kicker.

am I stating your assertion correctly?

[ko king]

[QUOTE=notes1] [QUOTE=markinca] [QUOTE=notes1] [QUOTE=markinca] is is a similar situation to holding AAA over AAA+k in TDB - you'll hit a lot more quads, but lose more long term.


I don't know how many times I have to say it but I'll say it again: THE MATH IS NOT A GUARANTEE. For any one gambler, anything can happen. [/QUOTE]

then your statement above is incorrect[/QUOTE]

No, it's not. I clearly said LONG TERM. I fear I'm being trolled at this point.[/QUOTE]

Define "long term".

[ko king]

Didn't mean to open up a can of worms. Last night while playing I ran into a guy and was telling him about my mistake and he said in the amount of time it would have taken to hold the kicker with the trip aces chances are the ace wouldn't have been there. Don't know if what he was saying was correct or not but it sounded good to me. A few minutes later I was dealt trip 2's with the kicker and made sure I held the kicker, got my $2K hit.

[Galeygoo]

....and they all lived happily ever after

[markinca]

Define "long term".

Well that's the thing - long term is however many hands it takes to give you the confidence interval you want.

Unfortunately I don't know the exact numbers, but you can run a simulation and it can calculate your expected losses and how many of the simulations came within X of the expected loss. The more simulations you run, the closer and closer all of your sims will be to the expected loss.

Just doing a quick search online, I couldn't find anything like this, but there is a roulette simulator at http://vegasclick.com/gambling/houseedge. As you run the sims, you can see that after 1, 10, or even 100 spins, the results can be all over the place, but at just a million spins, the result is almost always very close to the expected 5.26% loss. You can imagine that with more hands, it'd be even closer. Is it possible that you'll actually be up money after 1 million hands? Try it yourself and see. I doubt you'll ever get one.

[notes1]

kk, I have enjoyed your posts as much as anyone's. you didn't open a can of worms, instead a really interesting conversation/debate.

keep the stories coming.

[jetermacaw]

So yesterday I get to Harrahs Ac a little earlier then usual, get to my favorite QQ machine and decided to play 10 play TDB, second deal dealt 3 aces and kicker. Held the kicker and got the 4th ace on the last of the 10 hands. Thanks Vman I owe you more then a couple beers. Unfortunately the QQ Gods were not kind the rest of the day. It was one of those give and take days all day long. Left even after expenses, which is always a good day.