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Wow thanks Phil. You made that crappy pic on my old flip phone look great. By the way Alpax, the Mrs. says all of the time....Do you have to act like you are still 18.... For once she is glad I did... And the closer I get to 70 and I am almost there now, I'll be sure to keep it up. No pun intended.
Edited to add...Now I have to work on 2014. Unfortunately, that means another 50k to go. Actually just got back from an overnight. I nailed quad deuces twice. One had the Ace. on the above spin poker game. Bet 1 on each line. Ended up about 500 for the session. Quite happy but tired. It is 95 here and humid. Had 5 Aces 3 times as well. Long session though. Way too long. Had no room, but was cooler than home, so I just stayed there. We rarely need air cond in Ct and the beach is down the street, but this time the little one in the bedroom just didn't cut it. The rest of the house is stifling.
Finally a nice hit at Mohegan Sun
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olds442jetaway
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 10699
- Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1940
- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
Wow thanks Phil. You made that crappy pic on my old flip phone look great. By the way Alpax, the Mrs. says all of the time....Do you have to act like you are still 18.... For once she is glad I did... And the closer I get to 70 and I am almost there now, I'll be sure to keep it up. No pun intended.
I got a good kick out of what the Mrs. says!
It is ironic that the outcomes of the jackpot is telling you excited like you are 18 with the value you in front!
It is warm in many places in the nation, some places have rain as some of the baseball games had delays. Still glad that things are going good, but 2014 will be almost impossible to catch up on. Do the potshots in moderation, about 1 or 2 a trip at most, or else it can eat away bankroll quickly. If you could hit some Royals in a short span, you can reduce the gap a little.
I don't believe anyone beats this game by "Grinding it Out" at the same denomination. Â Read part four of Dancer's Million Dollar Video Poker and you'll see how a pro does a pot shot. Â Â
Disclaimer: This is only my strongest opinion, I did not purchase the Million Dollar Video Poker novel, I purchased the Winners Guide instead (more reasons described later). I did hear a good amount of things about the autobiography from the GWAE radio show and the weekly column at LasVegasAdvisor and now GWAE Super Site.
I similarly do take 1 or 2 potshots every trip as well, but it is important to know the motivation behind the potshot and not spread misinformation how it is the only way to win.
Back in the time setting when Million Dollar Video Poker took place, the casinos offered very favorable pay schedules, offered good comps and cashback to players who played video poker. Highly competent and skilled players like Mr. Dancer took advantage of this limited window of opportunity, a casino vulnerability which they wised up later.
Highly skilled players had a small edge over the house 24 hours a day 7 days a week at the time, so playing with skill was rewarding as much as you can play it.
Million Dollar Video Poker is more of the tribulation of bankroll cultivation, rather than the end result that the title indicates. Trying to battle the casino every day with a small edge, it was a grind, a substantial bankroll was needed to survive the ups and downs. Mr. Dancer stressed the need to live as frugal as possible. All the winnings went directly into playing VP, e.g. reinvesting.
It was about starting with a few thousand, growing it to tens of thousands, and then hundred thousand ... (today it is over a million). There was a warning where if a player bets high stakes than their bankroll can support and goes on a bad streak, their bankroll will be deminished or gone. Have to get a dreaded job to make money to play again.
Once the bankroll grew reached a high enough threshold, Mr. Dancer could feel safe increase the denomination so that the rate he can earn to the bankroll increases.
Now for the potshot, I do not know the full details of how big of a bet he made and at what game and what he won. It is more of a single large bet that will not eat up or put his bankroll in jeopardy of playing normally if it fails. If he hits something good like 4 Aces on DDB, the bankroll will take a jolt and he can EXPEDITE the increase of bet sizes to earn even more money.
Not relevant, but you know the end of the story where Mr. Dancer took advantage of a video poker machine at MGM (not sure if one or more) where its player card reader was set as a reel slot machine instead of video poker. The house knows it has a great advantage on slots, Mr. Dancer was getting much more points he was supposed to be getting. Then he and Shirley went for it despite not having a comfortable bankroll of a million dollars or so, playing $25 VP and hitting a $100,000 royal flush, then using that winning to play $100 VP to hit the $400,000 Royal Flush. I think that is where he admitted to being lucky that day, well as a fallback he got enough points to get that PT Cruiser to possibly sell for money and I believe $75,000 in case it failed.
Fast forwarding to today in 2016, casinos are much more knowledgeable about skilled VP players being a threat. The VP has tighten up by being more negative expectation and the comp/cashback is minuscule for the players. I do not want this to sound offensive, but you have to mentally adjust today and not go by what happened then.
I did not buy the MDVP book over the Winner's Guides because it was not relevant to help me in today's standard. It does provide the bread and butter mindset Mr. Dancer had when he approached it, that part is the most useful. I've read some sample pages on Amazon Peek Inside feature to see that was the purpose why the book is still being sold today.
Out of potshotting, all I hope it would do for myself is to put a jolt in what I have for my bankroll for VP play. It would put less pressure each month to grow something. I just need enough to play 3 hours tracked to get a hotel room and free meals at places I find value at playing. Not going to step up in denomination, I will not be looking to stay at Aria, Wynn, Bellagio, Encore, or Caesars Palace. I purposely left out Cosmopolitan since I have some interest in that high end place.
I think for you, a potshot win can wipe out an ugly day of VP play. Either way, risk it in moderation.
I got a good kick out of what the Mrs. says!
It is ironic that the outcomes of the jackpot is telling you excited like you are 18 with the value you in front!
It is warm in many places in the nation, some places have rain as some of the baseball games had delays. Still glad that things are going good, but 2014 will be almost impossible to catch up on. Do the potshots in moderation, about 1 or 2 a trip at most, or else it can eat away bankroll quickly. If you could hit some Royals in a short span, you can reduce the gap a little.
I don't believe anyone beats this game by "Grinding it Out" at the same denomination. Â Read part four of Dancer's Million Dollar Video Poker and you'll see how a pro does a pot shot. Â Â
Disclaimer: This is only my strongest opinion, I did not purchase the Million Dollar Video Poker novel, I purchased the Winners Guide instead (more reasons described later). I did hear a good amount of things about the autobiography from the GWAE radio show and the weekly column at LasVegasAdvisor and now GWAE Super Site.
I similarly do take 1 or 2 potshots every trip as well, but it is important to know the motivation behind the potshot and not spread misinformation how it is the only way to win.
Back in the time setting when Million Dollar Video Poker took place, the casinos offered very favorable pay schedules, offered good comps and cashback to players who played video poker. Highly competent and skilled players like Mr. Dancer took advantage of this limited window of opportunity, a casino vulnerability which they wised up later.
Highly skilled players had a small edge over the house 24 hours a day 7 days a week at the time, so playing with skill was rewarding as much as you can play it.
Million Dollar Video Poker is more of the tribulation of bankroll cultivation, rather than the end result that the title indicates. Trying to battle the casino every day with a small edge, it was a grind, a substantial bankroll was needed to survive the ups and downs. Mr. Dancer stressed the need to live as frugal as possible. All the winnings went directly into playing VP, e.g. reinvesting.
It was about starting with a few thousand, growing it to tens of thousands, and then hundred thousand ... (today it is over a million). There was a warning where if a player bets high stakes than their bankroll can support and goes on a bad streak, their bankroll will be deminished or gone. Have to get a dreaded job to make money to play again.
Once the bankroll grew reached a high enough threshold, Mr. Dancer could feel safe increase the denomination so that the rate he can earn to the bankroll increases.
Now for the potshot, I do not know the full details of how big of a bet he made and at what game and what he won. It is more of a single large bet that will not eat up or put his bankroll in jeopardy of playing normally if it fails. If he hits something good like 4 Aces on DDB, the bankroll will take a jolt and he can EXPEDITE the increase of bet sizes to earn even more money.
Not relevant, but you know the end of the story where Mr. Dancer took advantage of a video poker machine at MGM (not sure if one or more) where its player card reader was set as a reel slot machine instead of video poker. The house knows it has a great advantage on slots, Mr. Dancer was getting much more points he was supposed to be getting. Then he and Shirley went for it despite not having a comfortable bankroll of a million dollars or so, playing $25 VP and hitting a $100,000 royal flush, then using that winning to play $100 VP to hit the $400,000 Royal Flush. I think that is where he admitted to being lucky that day, well as a fallback he got enough points to get that PT Cruiser to possibly sell for money and I believe $75,000 in case it failed.
Fast forwarding to today in 2016, casinos are much more knowledgeable about skilled VP players being a threat. The VP has tighten up by being more negative expectation and the comp/cashback is minuscule for the players. I do not want this to sound offensive, but you have to mentally adjust today and not go by what happened then.
I did not buy the MDVP book over the Winner's Guides because it was not relevant to help me in today's standard. It does provide the bread and butter mindset Mr. Dancer had when he approached it, that part is the most useful. I've read some sample pages on Amazon Peek Inside feature to see that was the purpose why the book is still being sold today.
Out of potshotting, all I hope it would do for myself is to put a jolt in what I have for my bankroll for VP play. It would put less pressure each month to grow something. I just need enough to play 3 hours tracked to get a hotel room and free meals at places I find value at playing. Not going to step up in denomination, I will not be looking to stay at Aria, Wynn, Bellagio, Encore, or Caesars Palace. I purposely left out Cosmopolitan since I have some interest in that high end place.
I think for you, a potshot win can wipe out an ugly day of VP play. Either way, risk it in moderation.
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FloridaPhil
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 6229
- Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am
Well written. I understand the math and the logic behind Mr. Dancer's approach to the game. To him and the followers of his strategy, winning at video poker is a product of math calculations coupled with a regiment of perfect hand plays. I have stated dozens of times on this forum that if I had the skill, opportunities, knowledge and bankroll of Bob Dancer, I would play exactly as he does. Like Bob Dancer I try to play the best games and use the same hand strategy, but my skill level and opportunities are not near that level and never will be. In addition, I choose the games I play based on what I like, not the odds posted on the machine.Most recreational players like me play negative games. If you are going to play a negative video poker game you have two choices. One, play the same denomination all the time and accept what the odds give you or factor in a small portion of your play at a higher denomination and hope that luck works in your favor. For example, if I play 8/5 quarter DDB all year long, I am almost guaranteed to lose money on an annual basis. But, if I have the discipline to build in a small amount of my bets at the dollar level and hit a $4,000 royal or a few dollar quad aces and keep it, I'll be ahead. Back when I was playing CS single coin quarters, my pot shot wins had real impact on my bankroll as my regular play loses were minimized. At the moment, I am using the same strategy with max coins and it's working just as well. If you use Bob Dancer's "Grind it Out" strategy on a negative game, you will lose long term. Mr. Dancer himself has stated this a multitude of times. Using our minimal pot shot strategy, you at least have some shot at winning.The key word in my strategy is "minimal". You must have a regimented repeatable strategy that keeps at least 90% of your play small and 10% at the larger denomination. if you are betting big more than that, you are playing above your bankroll and courting disaster. I am not a big believer in streaks or using past play to predict jackpots. It doesn't matter how you time your bigger bets as long as you do them on a regularly paced basis.If Mr. Dancer was on this forum right now, he would say this will cause me to lose more money because the overall game is still negative. In reality, big denomination hits do in fact occur and to maximize their benefit you must have the discipline to return to betting small 90% of the time. Doing this grows your bankroll, giving it back does the opposite.I realize my approach to the game is not based on math and that annoys some people. I also realize my strategy is not something anyone should base a career on. The truth is winning at video poker is 90% math and 10% luck. If I win $4,000 or even $18,000 because I was lucky, the money spends just as well.
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1940
- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
Thanks Phil was describing in great detail about how you were able to use the bigger than usual potshot bet for dealing with your situation. Happened to have gotten lucky enough to hit a few times on them, which is entirely possible. Hope this will clear a great deal of confusion, people thought you were winning with CS despite playing heavily negative expectation games. The biggest thing people focus on is the single coin betting and lesser royal flush payout, and were wondering how you can possibly still win for the day, and not for a lifetime (which was led since your good stretch lasted 2 years). Some people had access to good games or be willing to play DDB/TDB for the wild swings, so they would not have to rely on CS for enjoyment.
For those playing strictly for recreation, successful attempts at this potshot can really help them stretch their budget to play longer. Some people are scared to bet much more than what they normally bet, even if it is just for 1 or 2 hands, I do not blame them for it. I know olds has bought into it last week and has paid off big this one time, I just do not want people to get trigger happy with it as it can dangerously eat away bankroll if they are and get unlucky. Mr. Dancer even set this warning back in his day about betting bigger than what your budget is.
Now there are only a very few games where Mr. Dancer has always an edge, however it is not worth his time to do that because it is only worth a few dollars per hour of his time. It is no longer the case today where he wins at his will at around the clock. He was fortunate to grind it out at the time. Now it takes much more creativity to have things go his way, even more than what he described on the book, during the most opportune times the casino sets which could be in the early morning, or even at midnight where people are competing for a seat inside.
The key word is competing, I believe in my opinion, Mr. Dancer likes to be vague these days because of the level of creativity it takes now. His most fundamental principal of only playing over 100% after all things considered still applies today.
People I know still mention the fact to this day that it was possible to buy Apple shares in the stock market at $6. It was only back in the late 90s where Apple was at rock bottom and Steve Jobs returned. I remind them it was an one time opportunity back in the past and to only focus on the present, though I said this out of common sense and not as an expert. I think it best fits the video poker opportunities back then and now.
Again thanks for the understanding and writing in great detail the clarification of your thinking!
For those playing strictly for recreation, successful attempts at this potshot can really help them stretch their budget to play longer. Some people are scared to bet much more than what they normally bet, even if it is just for 1 or 2 hands, I do not blame them for it. I know olds has bought into it last week and has paid off big this one time, I just do not want people to get trigger happy with it as it can dangerously eat away bankroll if they are and get unlucky. Mr. Dancer even set this warning back in his day about betting bigger than what your budget is.
Now there are only a very few games where Mr. Dancer has always an edge, however it is not worth his time to do that because it is only worth a few dollars per hour of his time. It is no longer the case today where he wins at his will at around the clock. He was fortunate to grind it out at the time. Now it takes much more creativity to have things go his way, even more than what he described on the book, during the most opportune times the casino sets which could be in the early morning, or even at midnight where people are competing for a seat inside.
The key word is competing, I believe in my opinion, Mr. Dancer likes to be vague these days because of the level of creativity it takes now. His most fundamental principal of only playing over 100% after all things considered still applies today.
People I know still mention the fact to this day that it was possible to buy Apple shares in the stock market at $6. It was only back in the late 90s where Apple was at rock bottom and Steve Jobs returned. I remind them it was an one time opportunity back in the past and to only focus on the present, though I said this out of common sense and not as an expert. I think it best fits the video poker opportunities back then and now.
Again thanks for the understanding and writing in great detail the clarification of your thinking!
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FloridaPhil
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 6229
- Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 11:28 am
Thanks for the kind words. My hope is that all topics on this forum would be discussed in an open and objective manner free from name calling or personal attacks. I have noticed that things have gotten better lately. I don't know the reason, but it's very refreshing.
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olds442jetaway
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 10699
- Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm
I also find the discussions lately very informative and interesting. If we don't get another bad storm tonight, I am going to take a trip up late this evening. The storm last night knocked out one of our TVs, the stove fuses, and one outlet. The hit was very close by. There appears to be another one off in the distance I am keeping my eye on. This weather is very unusual for Ct. in this long stretch. If I do go, no room till tomorrow morning. Mohegan is very oversold dut to the weather we are having. I am going to limit my pot shots to just a couple of hands every couple of hours. Thats it. I will probably play the same All Star machine if I can get it. Otherwise a little DDS which is even more streaky. There also are a couple of triple play DDS machines. I may even try those on a deuces wild game. I still seem to have absolutely no luck with job. I usually allocate an hour or so of job play and the last few sessions have produced hardly any quads and lots of dud streaks. I also haven't had much luck on single line airport deuces wild machines. In the short couple of months I have been playing 3 lines at a time, I have been doing much better even without the two big jackpots. You do need a bigger bankroll though for the day. Good luck to all. Hope this weather breaks soon and my best to those who live in the parts of the country ravaged by floods and wildfires.
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FAA
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 9143
- Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am
The key word in my strategy is "minimal". You must have a regimented
repeatable strategy that keeps at least 90% of your play small and 10%
at the larger denomination. if you are betting big more than that, you
are playing above your bankroll and courting disaster. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Excellent condensed advice. Now you tell me. The thrill of a higher denomination is such a rush. No beginner's luck. I lost $140 in under an hour on Saturday on an ice cold machine. I guess I had to get that out of my system, Phil. Experience is always the best teacher. Now I can confidently shrug and say your mantra when I play this game. Been there, done that. Yesterday was much better. I made $14 on dollar JOB thanks to a $45 full house. I badly wanted a $125 quad to salvage my weekend. But I did not go home a loser on two consecutive days. Details in AC thread. 90/10. Keep the zen. Sign it in pen!
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FAA
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 9143
- Joined: Wed May 28, 2014 11:58 am
I am going to take a trip up late this evening. In the short couple of months playing 3 lines at a time, doing much better even without the two big jackpots.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Easy tiger. Yeah, but it sure helps to have those checks in the bank! I got wiped out in my foolhardy plunge into a higher denom. -$140 on Sat. Feeling sick to my stomach. I did recoup $15 yesterday. The good news is that Caesars has for the moment relaxed its death grip on quarter JOB. Nine quads in two days, eight from Caesars. I am still looking for my first three figure quad. That will be a happy day at the shore.
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olds442jetaway
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 10699
- Joined: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:08 pm
Back from an overnight Sunday eve late and into early Monday afternoon. I was only able to get my room at 6 AM which is technically a room for tonight so I played all night except for a few breaks. Caught just a couple of hours sleep this morning and am really ready to hit the hay now. This marathon was just a bit of a struggle, but at no time was the bankroll in danger of being wiped out. I really lucked out catching a Royal on one line of the quarter spin poker machine on the bonus deuces wild game. I also caught two wild royals on the quarter DDS machine on the deuces wild game, and quad deuces on the quarter spin poker game bonus deuces wild. I didn't have much luck today on the dollar spin poker bonus deuces wild game although I was ahead a hundred when I hit 5 aces on it. I should have bailed at that point. Today's net was 1600- and I am starting to put a dent in my 50k 2014 losses. Hope it lasts. One disturbing thing is starting to happen at Mohegan. In the middle of the night, they pulled out the entire last remaining row of 2 cent poker machines. They also pulled the lone row on nickel machines that paid 800 for 1 for the royal with just a nickel bet on the spin poker option. I wouldn't put it past them to pull out the machines I have been winning on as well. If so I will just move on either to Foxwoods or I will have to re scout both properties at length. If there is nothing good to play, I just won't or at least nowhere the level or frequency that I am playing now. My two best hits for the day were the royal for a grand and the wild royal on DDS. That one was also a grand because it was a pot shot hit with 20 quarters bet. The dollar spin poker machine took several hundred from me today, but luckily I was able to make it up on the other machines.
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alpax
- Video Poker Master
- Posts: 1940
- Joined: Sat Jun 14, 2014 4:42 pm
Glad to hear about the continued good results and the Royal came in less than 40k hands from the big DDS one. Hopefully these all night sessions will not put a hurt on the sleeping patterns, causing jet lag when you have not traveled through different timezone. Rest up and hopefully the weather gets better soon.
The key word in my strategy is "minimal". You must have a regimented
repeatable strategy that keeps at least 90% of your play small and 10%
at the larger denomination. if you are betting big more than that, you
are playing above your bankroll and courting disaster. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Excellent condensed advice. Now you tell me. The thrill of a higher denomination is such a rush. No beginner's luck. I lost $140 in under an hour on Saturday on an ice cold machine. I guess I had to get that out of my system, Phil. Experience is always the best teacher. Now I can confidently shrug and say your mantra when I play this game. Been there, done that. Yesterday was much better. I made $14 on dollar JOB thanks to a $45 full house. I badly wanted a $125 quad to salvage my weekend. But I did not go home a loser on two consecutive days. Details in AC thread. 90/10. Keep the zen. Sign it in pen!
I've read the report. Great details you put in. When you get 75 credits for a quad were you betting 3 credits at a time? I would recommend the full 5 credits for JOB, and maybe one dollar JOB bet an hour. I hope that Royal is coming soon, but you would hope to get the full amount when that moment comes.
The key word in my strategy is "minimal". You must have a regimented
repeatable strategy that keeps at least 90% of your play small and 10%
at the larger denomination. if you are betting big more than that, you
are playing above your bankroll and courting disaster. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Excellent condensed advice. Now you tell me. The thrill of a higher denomination is such a rush. No beginner's luck. I lost $140 in under an hour on Saturday on an ice cold machine. I guess I had to get that out of my system, Phil. Experience is always the best teacher. Now I can confidently shrug and say your mantra when I play this game. Been there, done that. Yesterday was much better. I made $14 on dollar JOB thanks to a $45 full house. I badly wanted a $125 quad to salvage my weekend. But I did not go home a loser on two consecutive days. Details in AC thread. 90/10. Keep the zen. Sign it in pen!
I've read the report. Great details you put in. When you get 75 credits for a quad were you betting 3 credits at a time? I would recommend the full 5 credits for JOB, and maybe one dollar JOB bet an hour. I hope that Royal is coming soon, but you would hope to get the full amount when that moment comes.
