It's Vegas Baby!!

[FloridaPhil]

Here's a $1,000 royal made by going against the math.  We've hit three of these so far.  The problem with video poker math is it's calculated into infinity which may or may not have any bearing on your actual results when you play.  It's the best we have, so use it.   If you're playing quarters and occasionally vary from it, it's not a federal offense.  The math says this change costs her 4 cents each time this situation comes up.  In the example below it will take 25,000 no win results for it to wipe out the royal.   I think she's doing just fine.

[Lionqueen]

Phil, your wife and anyone else that plays this game with their own money can keep or throw away any cards they want. You and she and a lot of us have played this game long enough to know what is correct according to the math and what our own experiences have been that cause us to break away from some of them. The decisions I make and discuss on here should be just for discussion and not ridicule. Just like some people eat meat and others don't - it's a matter of choice and as Notes pointed out, knowing and using the correct math is not the equivalent to finding a cure for cancer. I respect that some play strictly math but I don't respect the bullying a few seem to feel the need to do. We're informed, we're not dumb - we just play the way we choose. That's what America is all about. 💕   I'm quite certain the majority of math players aren't as closed minded as a it may seem. I would love to hear from some that understand where we are coming from.

Now if we want to talk politics - that's something worth arguing about! 😂😂

[FloridaPhil]

Very well stated.   I am not advocating ditching math based VP strategies and playing by hunches or superstition.  Some players come on this forum to learn.  Math does not owe you a jackpot or a profit, it only predicts what the odds are that something may happen.  What cards are dealt to you is strictly up to luck.  What you do with those cards is up to you.  With that said, math based strategies are the best predictors we have and have been proven to be many times more effective than guessing.  Some forum members are obsessed with this.  In fact, some seem to enjoy calculating odds more than playing the game itself.   I have no problem with that.  What I have a problem with is being bullied by someone because I am willing to take a four cent luck shot once in a while.  That is ridiculous and not helpful to anyone.

[Vman96]

   The math people will say that your wife WILL NOT see more natural and wild royals when deviating from correct strategy. Over time. Math has proven this to be true.


What? This is absolutely incorrect. You must have overlooked my rambling analysis of the probability of making quad 7s earlier in this thread that discussed the probability changes of winning hands based on strategy used.

Changing strategy is the ONLY way to change the expected hand probabilities in a video poker game that is "Vegas Style". As a simplified example, let's say you were forced to always hold all your cards. Now the odds of you making a royal is only when it's already dealt to you (1 in 649,740) instead of the typical 1 in ~40,000 in most video poker games.

So, if Phil's wife holds AK, AQ, AJ, AT suited in Deuces Wild, I expect her to have more wild and natural royals, and more flushes at the greater expected expense of other winning categories coming less frequently and losing hands coming slightly more frequently. I'm not 100% sure, but I assume she is expected to make less straights by holding these hands.    

[Lionqueen]

I've posed questions to the Forum not because I needed to be told the correct math - I know what the correct math is. Once I asked about just keeping the Ace on multi-line TDB because several times I was dealt 3 more aces but because I held the face card, I stood no chance of getting the kicker. Everyone nicely gave their feedback and I've stuck to the correct play. I was just curious if anyone had varied and their outcome. I think this is the type of information beneficial to a new player just in case they too are wondering if.... And they shouldn't be afraid to ask questions for fear they will be insulted.

I loved the TDB discussion a couple of weeks ago and think even Mark was civil. Wish we could see more posts like that.

When someone at the next machine has a difficult hand and asks me what I would do I always say "Well the correct play is....but the decision is yours". They almost always go with the correct play and if they don't I don't personally care.

[olds442jetaway]

As I have posted numerous times math and infinity are linked and will never be separated. It is great to know the probabilities, just as it is great and more fun to play a hunch or vary it once in awhile in the name of having fun. I can't believe that over time doing this in the name of having fun costs more than what a couple of tips to the waitress would be per session and even if it does, that money being played has already been budgeted to play with in the name of fun for most all of us. Now if someone is outright clueless like I have seen many times and keeps a single high card in a deuces wild game and plays that way all of the time, that is different. Each to his own. Knowledge is still power and we all still have the power to use our knowledge and have fun at the same time.
     Speaking of infinity, my Royalless streaks seem to be back at Mohegan. I am heading up tonight to stay over at Mohegan, but will be playing at Foxwoods even though the odds are worse there. We'll see what happens, but I am also doing this in the name of having fun. Besides, from just one quick trip over there a few weeks ago, they are giving me free play and food and who knows, maybe a free room there by the end of the evening too. Luckily, each is only twenty minutes apart, so I can catch my free play at both places. I have no idea what kind of machines I will find, but if there are any really good ones that show up as far as paytables go, I will post back.

[Lionqueen]

Good luck Olds!

[markinca]

When someone at the next machine has a difficult hand and asks me what I would do I always say "Well the correct play is....but the decision is yours". They almost always go with the correct play and if they don't I don't personally care.Yup, I'm exactly the same.  A guy next to me once playing FPDW had 5 of a kind with 3 deuces, and asked me if he should keep the 5oak.  As his 5 of a kind wasn't ten-ace, I told him he's supposed to go for the quad deuces instead.  He held the 3 deuces, stared at the screen a bit, put his hand over the draw button, and then at the last minute held his whole hand and just took the 5oak payout.  We both had shared a laugh.I didn't think he was stupid.  He learned of the correct strategy and decided to go against it.  He lost theoretical money on that hand, but I don't know if he cared.  I get it.In the end, if you play enough hands (and we're talking a LOT of hands), the math will show itself.  Stories posted in here about personal anecdotes about 'hey i've hit so and so hand by making the wrong play so it can't be that bad' are useless.  Over the short term, anything can happen.  Yea, maybe you held AK suited in FPDW and made a royal.  But do you actually know how many premium hands you missed out on when you held it and made nothing?  Of course not - you only remember the wins so you figure it must be working out.

[Lionqueen]

What I seem to remember the most are the losses. I hate inside low card straights and stopped going for them, sometimes drawing garbage and sometimes a surprise but I decided on my last visit to get back to the math. 5 hours of play and not one single inside straight made. This kind of thing is what makes me adjust my strategy. I'll keep trying but not long if this keeps happening.

[markinca]

What I seem to remember the most are the losses. I hate inside low card straights and stopped going for them, sometimes drawing garbage and sometimes a surprise but I decided on my last visit to get back to the math. 5 hours of play and not one single inside straight made. This kind of thing is what makes me adjust my strategy. I'll keep trying but not long if this keeps happening.

Well how many inside straights did you actually go for in those 5 hours? You'll miss that straight more than 90% of the time, so it's not really too surprising you didn't hit any.