It's Vegas Baby!!

[Lionqueen]

There are a lot of things in this world that are 'extremely dangerous' . ISIS, drunk driving, walking alone on a dark street alone in a bad part of town but I've never really considered not going for an inside straight as one of them. Just sayin......😘

[case]

I just got caught up on this thread and have enjoyed it immensely. Lots of good info. Ya it gets heated at times but we all have opinions.

Since I came to this forum there has always been two sides. The math guys and the recreation gamblers. The two sides never totally agree and probably never will.

If you flip a coin 100 times you might have 75% heads and 25% tails. However if you flip that coin 1 million times you will be much closer to 50% tails and 50 % heads. If you flip it 10 million times you will be even closer to perfect results. Will you be right on 50/50...not likely but you will be very close. This is long term probability.

So the math guys use this model, while the rec guys use each trip as anything can and will happen.

Who is right...who is wrong....who really cares. But the banter is good reading!

[markinca]

If you flip a coin 100 times you might have 75% heads and 25% tails. However if you flip that coin 1 million times you will be much closer to 50% tails and 50 % heads. If you flip it 10 million times you will be even closer to perfect results. Will you be right on 50/50...not likely but you will be very close. This is long term probability.


This is exactly right. The problem with some of the non-math people is that if each of those coin flips were profitable video poker sessions, they'd say to themselves, "See, I won 75% of my last 100 VP sessions. The math doesn't apply."

[notes1]

the rec players do not tell others how to play, when someone posts a picture of a big win, they offer their congrats and they understand that playing any casino game, no matter how talented one might believe they are and how good the paytables are, is likely going to end in a loss over the long term. they live in reality. they believe steve wynn.

the math player feels it is their divine duty to tell all what and how to play, can't wait to tear apart any posted picture, believe every play will reflect the exact results that are likely to happen over 5m hands and generally believe if they play perfect on a positive machine, they will beat the house. they state expected results as if they were actual results, there is a difference.

the rec players often admit to their losses, but the math folks rarely mention their overall results.

[case]

no matter how talented one might believe they are and how good the paytables are, is likely going to end in a loss over the long term. they live in reality. they believe steve wynn.



Yes if you play in Steve Wynn casinos you will lose over time. His casinos are on the strip with terrible odds.

I believe if you play positive machines (including comps) and play perfect or as close as possible you should win over time.

Why do you always say this is not possible?

[notes1]

I said, 'the math player...generally believe if they play perfect on a positive machine, they will beat the house'. if each math player believes that, it would then be all math players. I have yet to see any proof that in the last five years, when the game offerings changed, that any player has had positive results, how would I believe all math players are net positive.

there may some math players who are positive, just like I am sure there are some rec players who are positive. but, as a group, as a general statement, I do not believe that simply playing the math ensures one of a positive result. it is gambling.

are you saying all those who play perfect math on positive machines are net positive?

[case]

Not all math players play on positive games. It just means they understand the odds. Not all math players play perfectly. It just means they have an understanding how the odds work and what the expected outcome should be over time.

Not everyone who plays perfectly on positive games win all the time. Not all those who play -ev games lose all the time. BUT those who play perfect and play +ev games will win more over time than those who play -ev games,. That is fact.

Here is more. I might be a winner at casino A,B and E in a given year. But I might lose at casino C and D. The next year I might win at casino A,C and D and lose at B and E. There is no guarantee you will always win.

You say a casino would not allow people to beat them but players also have losing years as well as winning years in the same casinos. If I was to beat a casino every year then yes they probably would not want my business. It does not work that way.

The edge is so small so you have to bet large to make and good money. Few have the bankroll and skill to accomplish it. But it can and is being done.

[markinca]

Not all math players play on positive games. It just means they understand the odds. Not all math players play perfectly. It just means they have an understanding how the odds work and what the expected outcome should be over time.

Not everyone who plays perfectly on positive games win all the time. Not all those who play -ev games lose all the time. BUT those who play perfect and play +ev games will win more over time than those who play -ev games,. That is fact.

Here is more. I might be a winner at casino A,B and E in a given year. But I might lose at casino C and D. The next year I might win at casino A,C and D and lose at B and E. There is no guarantee you will always win.

You say a casino would not allow people to beat them but players also have losing years as well as winning years in the same casinos. If I was to beat a casino every year then yes they probably would not want my business. It does not work that way.

The edge is so small so you have to bet large to make and good money. Few have the bankroll and skill to accomplish it. But it can and is being done.

I wouldn't bother trying to explain this. I've literally said the exact same things you've said, and he doesn't seem to understand the intricacies of long term vs. short term.

You say "long term is not a guarantee, just a high probability that you'll be up if you play a +EV game in the long term", and he'll come back with, "So you're saying all the math people who play +EV games are net positive??"

You say "long term is not a guarantee, just a high probability that you'll be down if you play a -EV game in the long term", he'll come back with, "So you're saying all rec players who play -EV games are net negative??"

good luck to you.

[notes1]

point out where I said 'all math players play on a positive games'.

point out where I said 'everyone who plays perfectly on a positive machine wins all the time'.

point out where I said 'a casino would not allow people to beat them'.

I thought math folks were all about accuracy.

I will attempt again to get an answer to a simple question, that the school teacher refuses to answer, are you guaranteeing/stating that all players who play perfect math, and only play on positive machine, over a long duration, will have net positive results?

a simple yes or no will do.

[markinca]

I will attempt again to get an answer to a simple question, that the school teacher refuses to answer, are you guaranteeing/stating that all players who play perfect math, and only play on positive machine, over a long duration, will have net positive results?

a simple yes or no will do.

Ah, like a broken record... same thing over and over and over.

And so I'll repeat myself AGAIN.

NO IT'S NOT A GODDAMN GUARANTEE. REPEAT THIS TO YOURSELF UNTIL YOU DON'T HAVE TO ASK ME AGAIN.

MATH IS NOT A GUARANTEE. MATH IS NOT A GUARANTEE. MATH IS NOT A GUARANTEE. MATH IS NOT A GUARANTEE.

And before you tell me, "So see? The math doesn't mean anything!" I ask you what you CAN guarantee.

Are you guaranteed to wake up tomorrow morning? No, you might suffer a heart attack during the night. Is the sun guaranteed to come up tomorrow? No, a huge asteroid might come out of nowhere and knock the earth off its orbit. Are you guaranteed to blink once in the next 5 minutes? No, you could tape your eyes open for 5 minutes just for kicks. THERE ARE VERY FEW GUARANTEES. Once you get into the 99.99%+ confidence intervals, that's as good as a guarantee. AND IF YOU PLAY ENOUGH HANDS OF VIDEO POKER, YOU'LL BE IN THAT INTERVAL. SO NO IT'S NOT A 100% GUARANTEE, BUT IT MAY AS WELL BE.

So now I await the response, "So are you telling me that players who play +EV games are guaranteed to win in the long term?" Sigh.