It's Vegas Baby!!

[case]

But Phil, the comps are part of the return. If dancer is playing a 99.8 game it takes the added comps to push it over 100%.

Most pros don't play 100% games because your comps and points are drastically reduced. If you play only a 100% return the casinos might 86 you. So the added comps are what makes the game positive.

Bolder Station has some games over 100% and I sometimes play them but I get no offers from the casino.

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=case]But Phil, the comps are part of the return[/quote]I agree.  The problem comes when a recreational player compares his/her VP results with those claimed by Bob Dancer.  I did this for years and it created serious doubts in my mind that what he was claiming was real.  I've only been to Vegas once in the past 10 years, but I can clearly see how he does it.   It's not that he is risking huge money on the hopes that math will make him a winner, it's the fact that he is playing the right games large enough and accurately enough while earning comps with enough monetary value to tip the balance solidly in his favor.  Very few people have the right combination of VP skill, knowledge of the game, information on comps, bankroll, nerve, inside information and YES luck to pull this off.What many players are missing is that they may be playing VP just as accurately as he does, but they don't have the rest of the things it takes to make the difference.  That's is why you get so many skilled players thinking math doesn't work.  MATH WORKS at predicting the odds of a certain thing happening.  It's not "guaranteed" to make you a winner this time, next time, long term or ever, so you need some luck too.  If you think it does, look closer at the math and you will find there's always a chance you could lose everything.   This fact alone is the main reason I do not chose to play like Bob Dancer.Math is also not the only way to play, but it does work better than anything else so far.   If you understand all this and choose to modify the math to suit your own purposes, I don't think that makes you a bad person.    We all have our reasons for playing and that should be allowed without someone making you feel bad because you don't play the way they do.

[Lionqueen]

These arguments or discussions are really about slight variations to the correct play and are between experienced and knowledgeable players. Personally I feel the variations don't amount to a staggering amount because they are not huge errors. We have all seen those people that bet too high, play too fast and don't have a clue as to what the correct play is. They are the ones that need to be reading this and learning and they are the players that keep the games in the casinos. I know a guy that plays $2 Aces bonus only. He plays fast and crazy but seems to always hit the aces for $4,000 every trip which sends him home even or a small profit. I've questioned some of his plays and he just grins - I'm quite certain he's never used a tutorial or read anything but just wants those aces. So it's his fun and night out so I leave it alone even though it drives me insane. If he were to log on here he would ask what an inside straight has to do with 4 aces. I think we are all doing a pretty good job in mostly staying with the correct plays especially on the really important ones and the arguments are a little too heated for the minor changes people on here make. Unfortunately those that could clearly benefit just don't have the interest or desire to learn.

[billryan]

I've yet to meet a skilled player who doesn't think math works. I meet people who think they are skilled or think they are accurate but are mistaken.

[notes1]

the choice of words one uses, does matter.

[Vman96]

These arguments or discussions are really about slight variations to the correct play and are between experienced and knowledgeable players. Personally I feel the variations don't amount to a staggering amount because they are not huge errors. We have all seen those people that bet too high, play too fast and don't have a clue as to what the correct play is. They are the ones that need to be reading this and learning and they are the players that keep the games in the casinos. I know a guy that plays $2 Aces bonus only. He plays fast and crazy but seems to always hit the aces for $4,000 every trip which sends him home even or a small profit. I've questioned some of his plays and he just grins - I'm quite certain he's never used a tutorial or read anything but just wants those aces. So it's his fun and night out so I leave it alone even though it drives me insane. If he were to log on here he would ask what an inside straight has to do with 4 aces. I think we are all doing a pretty good job in mostly staying with the correct plays especially on the really important ones and the arguments are a little too heated for the minor changes people on here make. Unfortunately those that could clearly benefit just don't have the interest or desire to learn.

Curious as to what errors he makes...strategy for ACE$ Bonus is very close to JoB or Bonus. The biggest change, which is pretty obvious if you think about it, is to break Aces full IF the 3 Aces are in the correct order.

the choice of words one uses, does matter.

Which is why I try to be careful with words, and avoid words that are truly absolute because nothing really is truly 100.0000000000000% absolute in VP. The weirdest crap in the world still has some tiny, tiny, tiny chance of happening on a fair VP machine. I'm obviously curious with numbers, so if I can calculate the odds of it happening (without it being a terrible pain) I will.

Although they may not have spelled out as many details like I do, I do feel like the "math guys" haven't been misleading with their arguments.

The general idea is this. If you play better paytables, play as close to optimal strategy as possible, and utilize comps as best you can (this requires guesswork/inside info sometimes unfortunately), you are expected to lose less (or win more) money. The more hands you play, the expected result of losing less (or winning more) money is more likely to actually occur. I put the winning terms in parentheses because playing only winning machines after comps is much more difficult obviously, especially outside of the Vegas market.

This previous paragraph sums up Bob's ideas in a nutshell, but probably with a lot less attitude.     

[notes1]

vman, while I may not agree 100% with everything you post, the manner in which you post is most welcome. I appreciate your continued offer to assist with math help, when requested.

we have both seen this discussion/argument/debate before, it is not new. in nearly every case, it begins when some math type person feels compelled to point out an error/deviation, from someone posting a picture. in most every case, they are not doing it to be helpful. we all know why they do it. it is obvious.

I do not recall a single time a rec player told anyone not play by the math. we may make a slight deviation, but not suggesting anyone else should do so.

you and I simply have different opinions on what may be misleading.

while I am at it, one last comment. many of us here play VP simply for enjoyment. we would all like to win, but under the conditions that most of us have to play under, it is simply not likely to happen, over the long run. being endlessly reminded to only play great paytables, typically offered in Nevada only, gets pretty old after awhile. if we could play positive games, we would. we do not just want to limit our play to the rare/expensive/time consuming trips to Nevada. and, not everyone wants to pack up their families, and move there. some of us do not just want to play JOB.

we know what we are doing, we know the odds are against us, we do not need to be reminded there is a better machine to play a thousand or more miles away.

have a pint on me!

[FloridaPhil]

Let me remind everyone that this discussion started because someone made the personal decision to go against math based strategy in an attempt to see more natural and wild royal flushes.  She used math to calculate the cost of this change and the effect.  She paid the price and got what she wanted.   We never said that math didn't work.  We never said everyone should make this change and we never said making this change would guarantee anyone a winner.  She knows what she's doing and she plays the way she wants. End of story...

[notes1]

here is another way to look at the reduced paytables many of us play on. for those who live in low/no state tax states or low property tax states, the difference in the taxes alone, could make up any difference in the cost of playing locally or traveling to get a 'hoped for' theo return.

what are the income taxes in CA, what are the income/property taxes in NY/NJ? what is the bankruptcy rate in Nevada? how about the suicide rate there? how much are the taxes in Canada?   

some might ask, why do people live in those places, it is a choice we make and each place offers both good/bad in return.

[jetermacaw]

Great stuff enjoy reading all thoughts and variations of said thoughts. Question for all who would like to answer, would the play vary by the amount of visits a player has. Say the once a week player vs the once a year player, and if and when would a players bankroll cause them to maybe leave a little of the math behind. Or is it always a constant no matter all the above scenarios?