Bankroll Issues

[alpax]

My wife would have serious disagreement with your statement about women not pushing themselves very hard.  She is a very successful self made business woman who pushes herself as hard or harder than any man I have ever met.  I do not know anything about the current Mrs. Dancer.  I suspect if she's married to Bob, she's a pretty strong individual. I also expect you are right about the 2000 hours of training.Absolutely true. This is one point that I believe is widely misunderstood. 



To protect myself from making adverse claims, I mentioned that I "barely" knew, only the ones that put themselves to go through medical school which is few. I do not surround myself with a whole lot of others to get a true gauge. I am sure your wife is ambitious and so is Mrs. Dancer. I understand now and days the stay-at-home mom concept is dwindling due to difficulties of surviving in this economy, women in the workforce is increasing rapidly.

Back to the point, I did not make up or assume about the 2000 hours part. I subscribe to Mr. Dancer's column every week and I recalled seeing a past article. I had to do a rough search effort and eventually I found the article where Mr. Dancer mentions about the 2000 hours expectation. I do personally regret that I did not mention Mr. Dancer chose not to force Bonnie to become a gambler.

gamblingwithanedge.com - Conditional Approval - February 24, 2015 Written by Bob Dancer

[QUOTE]

It is probably for the best that Bonnie is not a gambler. I have pretty high standards when it comes to gambling and there are relatively few ladies, who were otherwise acceptable, who approach winning at video poker like I do. Although I didn’t do anything like a systematic search, I decided that looking to the gambling world for a mate was probably not a good idea. “Forcing” my bride to study for 2,000 hours before she could play unsupervised didn’t strike me as a good way to start a marriage. So Bonnie accepts (for the most part) what I do and I have no plans to “convert” her into a gambler.

[/QUOTE]

[FloridaPhil]

No problem.  I got your point.  Wise move on Mr. Dancer's part.  My wife and I worked together successfully for about 25 years in my old business.  Very few couples can make that work.

[Chicagoan]

I disagree with the statement that "NO" one can win at video poker. Yes, it is true that you can have some very bad sessions, but if you play "smart" and exercise extreme discipline, yes, you can win. You have to look at your wins and losses on an annual basis, not on a session by session basis. In my case, nice hits on high denoms have over the years kept me ahead, although it has been close at times and, yes, I did have one very bad year.
The point about being paid at the machine ---- I totally agree with this. This is nothing other than a psychological trap on the part of the casino to keep the player in the casino. Make him feel special about his win, give him a high five, and make sure he stays at the machine while you run and get him some cash! That's why I have a rigid system on handpays ---- checks always for certain amounts, and you spin around on your chair when they arrive at your machine with the payment. That way, if you want to leave at that point, all you have to do is get up and walk without ever looking back at the machine. "Cash plays, checks walk" ---- this is a saying I have and I keep reminding myself of this any time I am at a casino. Without a rigid handpay system where I automatically get checks for certain amounts, I probably would not be ahead.

[FAA]

Yes sir. I got checks on both of my RFs, neither a hand pay. Elegant, crisp and temptation proof. Engage the cage!

[ukaserex]

Lots of wisdom in this thread.

I've a few questions, unrelated.

If saving your bankroll money comes easily for you - then why gamble? You can guarantee yourself that money just by saving it.

If saving that bankroll money comes difficult- like it does for me - then how can you afford the risk of losing all of it?

Those questions are rhetorical - I simply mean to suggest that unless VP is fun for you - don't try to make a living at it. It must be fun. Yet, I believe if you're that kind of player whose heart races while playing, in anticipation - you're likely more emotional than you should be when you play. To win, you've got to compartmentalize those emotions. You don't want to be in front of the machine that just took $400 bucks from you and then run to the ATM and pay outrageous fees to get more cash.

More relating to VP.com:

I consider myself a savvy player. On the quizzes, I generally get them all correct.

How is it that some of these players are able to get 15000 credits more than me over the course of 500 hands*30 days? 15000 hands. And I just cannot accept that some people are getting more than 3 Royal Flushes. I can see one person, maybe 2 or even 3 people getting lucky, hitting Royal Flushes or Aces with the 2,3,4 kicker.
But how is it that at least 10 people have been so consistently out-performing me? If I don't get a quad, I am lucky to get 400 credits per game. If I do get lucky, on a good day, I'll get 3 quads per day. Some are worth more than others.
I hit a royal on the 6th. Even that didn't even bring me into the top 100. A royal, over the course of a month isn't that big of a deal, as it's only a little more than 135 credits extra per day. Get one more quad every day than the guy that gets the royal and you're winning.
But I really have to wonder how these folks are getting the equivalent of 15k more than me, month after month. That's at least 3 royals and a lot of quads more than I've gotten. It just doesn't seem statistically likely. (although it's certainly possible)

[New2vp]

More relating to VP.com:

I consider myself a savvy player. On the quizzes, I generally get them all correct.

How is it that some of these players are able to get 15000 credits more than me over the course of 500 hands*30 days? 15000 hands. And I just cannot accept that some people are getting more than 3 Royal Flushes.  Ukaser, I feel your pain.  Here is a question in a form that you would rarely see on a VP quiz that might provide some explanation:  If you had 3234 people playing the Monthly tournament playing 8-5 Super Double Double Bonus using max-EV strategy on every hand, how many would be expected to hit 3 or more Royals in 15000 hands?  The binomial distribution, using an average royal rate of 1 per 40,009.89 hands, says that the expected number would be 21.5 people.  And a couple of them can be expected to hit 4 or more royals.  Ok, at the same time, with those same 21 over-royaled people, we can also expect 2 or 3 of them to get 4 or more quad aces with kickers.So what are any one's personal chance of winning the monthly tournament, assuming all are playing the same strategy.  Still a dismal 1 in 3234 chance, about once every 269 years!!  You would be satisfied with simply a top 10 finish??  Ok, you can get that about once every 27 years.Actually, I'm fairly certain that there are fewer than 3234 people playing 15,000 hands so your odds are better than I just wrote.  I just played my first game this month and after 1 game I was in 3,234th position this month.  Presumably there are quite a few (including me) that quit playing before getting all the way through 15,000 hands.  However, odds are that those that were lucky enough to be near the top by either hitting royals or more than their share of quad aces early would be more likely to continue.Does being savvy and playing "computer perfect" strategy help your chances?  Probably yes, but there is also a reason to believe the opposite.  Those people who "go for it" more often than such "perfect" strategy would suggest will be expected to have lower average scores, but some of them will be lucky and will actually be more likely to hit multiple royals.  If you play a strategy as if royals and quad aces with kickers pay 50% more than they actually do, the expected number to hit 3 or more royals actually goes up to about 31 with more than 3 people per month expected to hit 4 or more.     

[FloridaPhil]

[quote=ukaserex]If saving your bankroll money comes easily for you - then why gamble? You can guarantee yourself that money just by saving it.  If saving that bankroll money comes difficult- like it does for me - then how can you afford the risk of losing all of it?[/quote]We don't play video poker for anything more than having a good time. We also both hate losing, my wife a little more than me.  For this reason, we tend to over save when it comes to our bankrolls. Having a big cushion (10-20 times the royal amount) keeps us from becoming anxious when we have a few bad months in a row.  When you are anxious you make mistakes and do crazy things that hurt your bankroll.  If you learn to play one good game well and have discipline, your wins and loses will even themselves out in time.  We also intentionally play at low denominations, so risking it all is out of the question.[quote=ukaserex]How is it that some of these players are able to get 15000 credits more than me over the course of 500 hands*30 days?[/quote]I don't play in the contests, but you will find me playing against other players in the single line section.  Assuming you are Gold you can play with us.  This is great fun as you get to know the leaders by their user names and you can message each other as you play.  People that win often play high variance games fast.  For example, I would never play TDB in a casino, it's too volatile for my taste.  However, when playing against other players on this website I start off playing TDB at about 1,000 hands an hour.  If I hit a big jackpot, I switch to Deuces to stay ahead.  There is strategy to the contests other than a numbers game.  I suspect players that win often use it to their advantage.  I can't give you my personal contest strategy because I don't play them. 

[billryan]

So someone who works in a casino says they don't know a single lifetime winner and you folks lap it up , as if to justify your losses.
What casino does she work at? What are the paytables like? It would be easy for someone working in Florida or north Carolina to make such a statement, but if she works in Nevada she is either ill-informed or not being honest.
I've had a pit bosss tell me they can tell a card counter from three tables away in ten minutes, all while I'm sitting their counting.
The bottom line is the vast majority of casino employees are clueless, and most of the rest are not forthcoming.

[case]

I also can not except there are no lifetime winners on vp. I know of one that has won over his lifetime. He has not won every year but over time he is ahead.

If your family member worked in a strip casino it is possible there are no lifetime winners. You just can't overcome terrible odds. But not all casinos are on the strip.

[FloridaPhil]

I know lots of lifetime VP winners.  They went to the casino one or two times, got lucky and never went back.  As humans, we like to think we are in control.  Playing the best games with perfect strategy stacks the game in your favor, but you are still at the mercy of chance.  There are no guarantees in video poker.  Winners can occur as well as losers.  The hope that you will strike it rich or at a minimum walk out with a big windfall is what drives the industry.  If players didn't believe it was possible, many people would quit the game.  If you take away the dream, what's the fun of playing?