Thoughts For Beginners

[FloridaPhil]

You didn't answer my question, so I'll assume you're a long term loser like the rest of us.    I propose a test.  I'll play my way and you play yours.  We both will start with a fixed amount of money, say $10,000.  We will both play dollar 89.9% deuces wild.  We will each play one day each week and post our results.  After a fixed amount of time, we will see who has the most money left.  If either one of us runs out of money, he loses.

[rapidbison]

On 10/7 DB "FullPay"

100% [only precisely when you hit a royal--and--if you did not burn more than $1k since your last royal {quarters}]
       
97% [until you hit the royal]
          
92% [factor simply {possibly compounded worse} 95% RNG]

Nuff said!!!
       

[billryan]

You didn't answer my question, so I'll assume you're a long term loser like the rest of us.    I propose a test.  I'll play my way and you play yours.  We both will start with a fixed amount of money, say $10,000.  We will both play dollar 89.9% deuces wild.  We will each play one day each week and post our results.  After a fixed amount of time, we will see who has the most money left.  If either one of us runs out of money, he loses.



Are you a moron? Play all the 89.9% Dueces Wild you want.Only an utter fool would play such a game, if they were unlucky enough to find it. You seriously want to wager over who has better long term results by betting on a short term proposition?
To answer your question, I divide my VP into two segments. pre Dancer and post Dancer.
Before taking Dancers classes, I was a small loser. Would have been a much bigger one except for drunkenly playing a dollar machine and hitting five Aces for $4500 one night at the Sands.Played bad games with bad strategy.
Then I attended Mr Dancers classes.
In my case the payout was immediate. My prior philosophy was to never break up a winning hand. After the first class, my very first hand was a flush, four to the Royal.
I broke it and drew the Ace of Spades for my first single line Royal for $1199.
With that start, I'm positive in the last two years, in my way of accounting. I count any meals I get, and premiums I win that I want.
An example, in a recent trip I won tickets for a raffle.Won a huge family style salad bowl. As I also won one last month, it was pretty useless, as it wasn't something to eBay. Ended up trading it to a woman who didn't drink but won a .375 bottle of Jim Beam. I gave that a $5 value.
A free pack of Cigarettes is $5 to me. Playing on double points days gets me $10 in cash instead of $5.
Those are all ways I turn slightly negative games into net winners. I don't count free play as cash until it's played and what I pull out is what I count.

[FAA]

Clearly a typo with inverted 8 and 9. Surely 98.9% was meant.

[FAA]

I attended Mr Dancers classes.
In my case the payout was immediate. My prior philosophy was to
never break up a winning hand. After the first class, my very first hand
was a flush, four to the Royal. I broke it and drew the Ace of Spades for my first single line Royal for $1199.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Great story! The never break a winner philosophy has seeped into everyone's mind, with exceptions few and far between. I'm a timid lamb after a few years of beat downs, so I can imagine the real vets!

[FAA]

pumping more money into a losers game will only yield one result...losing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------We know this all too well, of course. But it can never be emphasized enough or expressed in enough variations. I must now keep the pot shots down to one or two an hour, true pot shot frequency.

[asteroid]

<snip>Other forum members may have a few that I have not thought of. <snip>



Here is one Phil and Bill: Suppose a good-paying hand (4ofK in double joker poker for example) hits on average 1 out of 53 times on a given VP variant (like double joker poker).After running 45 simulations playing  500 Hands per simulation it is found that almost half of the 45 simulations have an average 4ofK cycle between 40-60 hands with perfect strategy. Furthermore suppose that I bet one coin for a sequence of 39 non-4Ks and then raise my bet to 10 coins starting at hand 40. If I hit a 4ofK on or before hand 60 I drop my bet back to one coin, otherwise I contiue to bet 10 coins until hand 60. On hand 61, if I have not hit a 4ofK on my previous 20 hands I drop my bet back to 1 coin.I continue to bet 1 coin until a 4ofK hits. Then I start counting hands (still betting one unit) until I reach 40 hands and bet 10 coins again -repeating the cycle. So, on average, I am betting 10 coins near the cycle average for the hand in question and 1 unit otherwise. Please see the histogram below.

[billryan]

As the Royal Flush can occur on any hand, anytime, betting less than full coin two thirds of your hands means you have a great chance of screwing yourself out of a big payout.

[asteroid]

Yes, that's correct. You will miss out on many premium hands this way. On the other hand, half of your 4 of a kinds come from a narrow range that you are betting 10 coins on, resulting in a slow but steady increase in your bank roll.As the Royal Flush can occur on any hand, anytime, betting less than full coin two thirds of your hands means you have a great chance of screwing yourself out of a big payout.

[billryan]

Yes, that's correct. You will miss out on many premium hands this way. On the other hand, half of your 4 of a kinds come from a narrow range that you are betting 10 coins on, resulting in a slow but steady increase in your bank roll.[QUOTE=billryan]As the Royal Flush can occur on any hand, anytime, betting less than full coin two thirds of your hands means you have a great chance of screwing yourself out of a big payout.

[/QUOTE]

Wouldn't half of the 4OAK also come when you aren't betting 10 coins, resulting in an average 4OAK payout of 5 coins in?
In other words, you get no benefit from spreading 1-10, but have a tremendous downside?