Something to Think About

[Gronbog]

Phil, I think some of us have had the same thoughts. No need to apologize. I have often thought about what would happen if we all just went about our lives. Is the cure worse? Think of how many people will become addicted to alcohol/drugs etc. if they lose their ability to earn a living. Suicides too. It is a legit question.

The government of Ontario presented data today showing how, in the Spanish Flu of the early 20th century, in countries and areas which enforced physical separation, the outbreaks lasted for a much shorter time and their economies recovered much more quickly.

They also presented data indicating that mortality rates for this virus would have been 10 times higher than the current projections if no physical separation measures had been implemented.

In countries who's health care systems have not been overwhelmed, and enough ventilators are available, the current mortality rates are in the 1% - 2% range. However in countries like Italy, where the system was overwhelmed, the mortality rates are above 10%. "Flattening the curve" provides a chance for each health care system to cope with the case loads and not become overwhelmed.

Stay home! Stay healthy everyone!

[FloridaPhil]

So when you were trying to sell your Cheap System (CS), what did that make you? I mean minus the cheesey commercials, the 200' yacht and the jet....

Ted. Your post made my day. Thanks for cheering me up, I could use a smile these days. CS cost nothing. There were no CS books, CDs, classes or anything you could buy. It provided players with a way to enjoy the casino's hospitality at a fraction of the cost that everyone around them was paying. It's an entertaining, exciting way to play negative video poker at a discount.

Compare CS for free to what the experts are selling. I don't know how much money has been spent on "beat the casino" books, CDs and classes, but I am sure it's enough to make it worthwhile. If not, they would have gone away a long time ago. So how many successful long terms winners have come out of all this money spent? The experts themselves say it's only a handful. With that sucess rate, why does it continue to be sold? It surely isn't because of all the profit that is being made.

I outlined the good things that have come out of the expert strategy. All the experts should admit is what everyone already knows... Beating the casino involves more than math and there is a significant chance that a player can doing everything right and still lose.

I'm 73 years old. I've had a fantastic life. I hope I had a positive influence on people along the way. I am sure there were a few people that I may have influenced negatively. If I had spent my life encouraging people to beat a casino, I would be on my knees with guilt. I couldn't change the past, but I could admit my mistakes.

[FloridaPhil]

4/4/2020
Starting Credits - 43,563
Ending Credits - 43,063

No quads again today.

[Gronbog]

As everyone knows, I strongly disagree with the concept that playing positive video poker games computer perfect removes the risk of long term loss.
[ ... ]
there is a significant chance that a player can doing everything right and still lose.

You've said it again, so I will dispute it again, but it's starting to get repetitive. I'm disputing the underlined parts of the quote above.

The longer you "do everything right" the lower the chance that you will still be losing. This chance starts out very high (short term) and ends up very close to zero (long term) which is in no way "significant". Folks playing positive games or situations fail because they fail to "do everything right".

The positive vs negative aspect of the math is a mirror image. Everything that is true about doing "everything right" and succeeding is true about playing negative games and losing. If there was a "significant chance" that you could do everything right and still lose in the long run, then there would be the same significant chance that you could play negative games and win in the long run. If that chance were really "significant", then we would all know many people who have played negative games regularly and are in profit. I doubt that anyone here knows anyone in that situation.

It's not my mission to convince Phil in particular about this. I don't think that I ever will. The information, the math and the evidence is all out there. I've shown exactly how long it is to get to the long term and what the chance of bucking the odds are at that point. Everyone is free to decide for themselves what to believe.

[Tedlark]

So when you were trying to sell your Cheap System (CS), what did that make you? I mean minus the cheesey commercials, the 200' yacht and the jet....

Ted. Your post made my day. Thanks for cheering me up, I could use a smile these days. CS cost nothing. There were no CS books, CDs, classes or anything you could buy. It provided players with a way to enjoy the casino's hospitality at a fraction of the cost that everyone around them was paying. It's an entertaining, exciting way to play negative video poker at a discount.

Compare CS for free to what the experts are selling. I don't know how much money has been spent on "beat the casino" books, CDs and classes, but I am sure it's enough to make it worthwhile. If not, they would have gone away a long time ago. So how many successful long terms winners have come out of all this money spent? The experts themselves say it's only a handful. With that sucess rate, why does it continue to be sold? It surely isn't because of all the profit that is being made.

I outlined the good things that have come out of the expert strategy. All the experts should admit is what everyone already knows... Beating the casino involves more than math and there is a significant chance that a player can doing everything right and still lose.

I'm 73 years old. I've had a fantastic life. I hope I had a positive influence on people along the way. I am sure there were a few people that I may have influenced negatively. If I had spent my life encouraging people to beat a casino, I would be on my knees with guilt. I couldn't change the past, but I could admit my mistakes.

Phil, you were selling a dream, no different than William McCorkle, Kevin Trudeau, Tom Vu or Carlton Sheets. Out of the goodness of your heart you were just not charging for it. And, you just gave your sales pitch here again.

[onemoretry]

Compare CS for free to what the experts are selling. I don't know how much money has been spent on "beat the casino" books, CDs and classes...

Are you interested in being more specific here, and identifying the "beat the casinos" books and CDs you are referring to?

[FloridaPhil]

Everyone is free to decide for themselves what to believe.

Thank you for expressing your opinion and allowing me to express mine. This was my goal from the first post I made on this forum. We should not automatically classify anyone who holds different views than we do as unintelligent or undisciplined. All of us make judgments based on our experiences. It is my opinion that no human being can possibly play video poker long enough to reach theoretical "Long Term". I believe everyone plays in the short term where anything can happen.

If you hit a huge run of great hands playing video poker, you got lucky. I have seen many great runs in my life in business. I was in the right place at the right time on numerous occasions. Between 1966 and 1981, I went from repairing adding machines out of the back of a 1956 Ford with a broken starter to driving a Ferrari 308/GTSI as a company car. I will take credit for acting on those opportunities. I will not take credit for putting me there in the first place.

[seemoreroyals]

I still have to agree with Phil that luck is overwhelmingly the most important factor. Vulturing here and there give a few extra opportunities. Finding close to perfect paytables and playing perfect give you some extra shots at winning. But if you don't get royals, 4oak's, or other premium hands depending what game you are playing, you are dead in the water for a particular session you are playing. I have 2 friends in particular that do not look for perfect paytables. They play high volatility games. One in particular does not play anything except ult x. They both play a minimum of $10 a hand usually $25 and up. Normally 50 cent ult x 5 games for the ult x guy. You would not believe some of the luck they have had.

[FloridaPhil]

Phil, you were selling a dream, no different than William McCorkle, Kevin Trudeau, Tom Vu or Carlton Sheets. Out of the goodness of your heart you were just not charging for it. And, you just gave your sales pitch here again.

You're making me laugh again. You should do standup.

Seriously, what harm is done by me telling players how to enjoy playing today's casino games cheaper? I wish someone had told me that years ago. The only harm I can think of is they wouldn't have jackpots photos to brag about on this forum. Twenty years ago, no one needed CS. Near positive games were everywhere. I know, I played them. Today, if you play video poker more than a few hands, you are going to pay for the privilege.

If anyone wants to send me some money for posting CS on this forum, do it. I'll give it my church so they can feed someone who needs it.

[Tedlark]

Phil, what casino hospitality are players enjoying? At a fraction of the cost? Please be a tad more specific.