Something to Think About

[Tedlark]

Two problems with your last post FP. One, how do casinos let people win? Two, my wife and I have been 7 star and Diamond cardholders with CET for the past 9 years. While we are deluged with offers from all over from CET properties, we do not receive offers from everybody else. No MGM or Boyd gaming or any of the others even though years ago we used to play at the same level at Boyd we are currently playing at CET. In our case even though we play at the same level or higher than you, we are not getting deluged with offers other than from CET.

I was wondering the same thing about getting offers from everybody else. I am usually close to CET Diamond Elite and currently I'm at MyChoice Elite. I do not receive offers from all over the place either and when I do play somewhere new the offers usually drop off if I don't play there after a certain period of time. And right now because the casinos are all closed, my mailbox has been devoid of offers. Well; except for a MyChoice Elite Renewal Dinner celebration in Lawrenceburg on April 24th that will more than likely be canceled.

I was seeking information from Phil as to how to get all these fantastical offers as maybe he had a secret play he could share with us.

[FloridaPhil]

What is needed on this forum is more information like I am providing today. You said you don't get offers like I do? I told you how to it happens. I said I don't know why we get so many offers. An expert could tell us why I do. Instead, our experts waste time talking discussing "beat the casino" strategies by playing games only a few players have access to with skills we don't have. This leaves most players to fend for themselves.

Most players don't have access to positive games, free cruises and million dollar jackpots. If we want to play video poker, we play what we have. An expert is not an expert unless he knows something you need to know. I do not need to know that someone hit a $100,000 royal in a Vegas gas station. I do not need to know that someone won a drawing at midnight last year when I am at home with my family.

I want to know how I can get more for my money without risking my life savings. Perhaps what we need is someone who plays negative games and is willing to answer questions?

There is no secret to getting a lot of offers. Play games with a decent house edge and play a lot of hands. Don't be picky about your dates. Play when the casino hotel rooms are empty. Make friends with the player's club people and tip them when they help you.

[onemoretry]

]I own a large stack of video poker strategy books and three copies of VPW software. Without naming names, I will say that most every video poker strategy book I own has one theme, you can make money playing the game.

In all likelihood, this material is from many years back, when the video poker situation was much more player friendly, and the possibilities were a lot stronger.

But, your continuing reluctance to actually identify your sources continues to be puzzling to me. Are you concerned we will look them up and find you are misinterpreting them? Or, are there titles gathering dust on your bookshelves that you are embarrassed to admit are there? Surely, you do not have a copy of "The Undeniable Truth.....". Or, do you?

Your comment about the Strategy Forum is ludicrous. If it were true, how do you explain the scores of topics that have been discussed there? The most recent was Chase the royal or keep the flush. You even ventured out of the Recreational Forum to participate in that one. Unfortunately, over time, that discussion deteriorated a bit, due to your inability avoid climbing up onto your soapbox.

[FloridaPhil]

Yes, most of my books are old. Questions about strategy are always about very small percentage hands. These hands don't mean squat to a small time player like me. One royal or pot shot dollar quad deuce overcomes thousands of these hands. The best way to win in a casino today is to be lucky not skilled. If you play today's games waiting for math to make you a winner, your bankroll will disappear into the coin slot. You must take control of your losses by setting limits and sticking to them. Advantage play is dead. It's been dead since 2008 when casinos needed to recover from the Great Recession. Now that we are entering the 2nd Great Depression, things are going to get worse fast.

[Tedlark]

What is needed on this forum is more information like I am providing today.

Um, no but you can go on believing that because you are here to save us all from the perils of casino gambling.



I want to know how I can get more for my money without risking my life savings. Perhaps what we need is someone who plays negative games and is willing to answer questions?

You have been asked repeatedly and you have provided no answers.

There is no secret to getting a lot of offers. Make friends with the player's club people and tip them when they help you.

Um, no. Player's Club people do not determine what offers a player will get and for you to even say this is not quite dumb but darn close.

[Gronbog]

Post deleted ... I misunderstood the post I was responding to.

[Tedlark]

Post deleted ... I misunderstood the post I was responding to.

A very rare miscalculation from Gronbog.

[FloridaPhil]

A very rare miscalculation from Gronbog.

I'll say. I was looking forward to Gronbog's post. Gronbog has a handle on math. If I was building something that required precise calculations, I would hire him in a NY minute.

The problem with today's video poker is math won't help you. In my opinion, today's casino games are not beatable. I'm not sure how they are programmed, but I do know that much. When I can play on this website and get nine royals ahead and I go to my local casino and lose 9 out of 10 times, something is amiss.

So now you will say, if you don't think the games are fair why do you play them? That question has been asked hundreds of times on this forum. The answer is I play them so small I don't care about the results.

The casino lets you win sometimes so you can lose far more times than you win. The average slot machine house edge at my local casino has been estimated to be around 10-15%. Do you want players taking up floor space playing video poker for 3% or less profit? This is the reason single line video poker is being replaced with high variance multiplier games where no one ever sees the real ER.

The best way to play today's casino games is to consider them entertainment and adjust the cost to your liking. People who used to make money playing video poker have moved on to the next opportunity. The only diehards left are those who sell or still believe in beat the casino strategy.

I know this is difficult to accept if you are heavily invested in this game. You are not going to catch back up. Take this current opportunity to consider yourself even.

[New2vp]

Ted, a terrific illustration (the Broken Record) that a picture is worth 1,000 words. Following are my less effectual 1,000 words:

I'm particularly taken with the latest mode of repeating without technically repeating: Continual posting of daily session results. And I have noted his remarkable discipline. While originally stating that he would stop when he reached his daily loss limit of 500 coins, I have noticed that has frequently morphed into multiple sessions per day on more than one occasion.

How about if we stipulate with a 45,000 credit lead, it will take more than a couple million hands for the small house edge to move his lifetime total down to an expectation of 0 credits?

As if his daily sessions of undetermined length are of great interest, pedagogical or otherwise, to anyone. Or that his positive total on a particular game proves (or even illustrates) anything at all. Ok, about 90% of the time, you will bust the 500 credits and the rest of the time, you will reach or surpass a target surplus of 4000 credits. How many posts does it take to illustrate that?

On this website, having 45,000 credits on one game (while having fewer than 10,000 credits on countless other games) is not even proof of profits over the website's lifetime of play … even on that single game. One could have gone "bankrupt" multiple times on that particular game and the player is rewarded with a fresh infusion of another 10,000 credits. There is no way to tell how many times that might have happened in the past by looking at a total.

I get that he is enamored with everything he does or has done in his lifetime in the past. I get that he has a compulsion about posting. I do wonder whether he has memory issues … whether he has a condition that prevents him from recalling that he has previously conveyed the same message, perhaps many times in the past.

I get that he is trying to emphasize that he has been a big winner in some sense. Or that his theory that theory doesn't matter has some validity.

Way back when the game first came out I played a lot of Wheel Poker with Quick Quads, often dualing with cddenver late night prior to when Webman started tracking high scores for the days. I just checked and my total there is 166,068 credits. Does that mean that my posts have four times the credibility of his posts? Rhetorical question. I will freely admit to going bankrupt on many other games probably more than 16 times that might balance out against my luck with this game. And, no, though I imagine (using his logic) that many want to see whether that balance can remain if I play future sessions this year, I will not be posting future session results. Outside of when the game is in a contest, I likely won't even be playing it.

Ted, I know you didn't take the bait when I thought there might be a counter to his claim that he gets high score of the day as much as anyone else. At the time that I checked, your edge over his claim of being as good as everyone else in this category looked like this: Tedlark 694 times to his 24 times. Not really much of a "contest." Heck, I haven't played significant amounts other than the contests and brand new games and I've accidentally recorded 27 times, probably virtually none of these in the last several years.

Oh well, I'm braced for continued repeating phrases that somehow this is Bob Dancer's fault. Or some other answer. Maybe he could trademark the "response that is non-responsive." Or he can always go back to complaining that those that disagree with him when he trashes others are mean-spirited jerks.

[FloridaPhil]

45,000 points is nothing on a multi-line or a multiplier game. Try that on a single line 99.5% game and tell me how many times that will happen? There are a few possible explanations. I got very very luck, I am lying about my score or the game is rigged in my favor. You can check the score with Webman. While you are at it, ask him if his games are fair. If it will make you feel better, I will quit posting my score.

I have been lucky my whole life. I won't go into it again, but the odds of starting out where I did and making it this far are astronomical. Ted claims to be lucky too. Is he lying? I don't think so. Some people win at video poker and some lose. Claiming luck can be learned is laughable.

I started out playing 500 hands a day. I'm winning, so I upped it to 1,000 hands and I won more. Am I now playing too many hands? You should make up your mind.

No one can predict the future, not even Gronbog. Here's what I predict. As soon as the casinos open back up, everyone will start winning. It will be a bonanza for a while. After they suck you back in, the machines will go back to being unbeatable. Better get your licks in early because when they fall this time, your return will be worse than ever. Good Luck while it lasts.