Chase the royal or keep the flush?

Discuss proper hold strategies and "advantage play" and ask questions about how to improve your play.
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FloridaPhil
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Re: Chase the royal or keep the flush?

Post by FloridaPhil »

I won't bother to repost the last two posts in quotes. I agree wholeheartedly with both. I have no issue with video poker math. What I object to is leaving out or minimizing the negative game side of these calculations. If a casino game is negative due to the odds, comps, errors or for any other reason, there will be a cost to play that game. The greater your coin-in, the greater the cost will be. This should be the first and last statement in every video poker strategy book sold or forum post made.

It is possible that I am underestimating the intellect of the average video poker player? It is also possible that the people I see pouring money into negative games are so rich they don't care what it costs? Those people aren't coming on this forum looking for help.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

Gronbog, 2^1 excellent posts, plain and easy to follow, even for math challenged seasoned citizens like FP and me. :up:

Since i have received no rebuke for my use of "to the power of", can i assume i passed the test, or have you just given up on me? :geek: Geek in training. :)

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

I have no issue with your use of "to the power of" in this or the other thread. If my posts have been useful to you then that's all I can hope for.

FloridaPhil
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Post by FloridaPhil »

Excellent post Gronbog. The issue with today's video poker games is not math, it's the games themselves. After Katrina, video poker odds all across the Southeast were reduced practically overnight. The casinos introduced high variance multiplier games further increasing the house edge. I fear we are in for another round of odds reductions once the casinos open back up.

If someone wants to run thousands of dollars a day or more through a negative video poker game, it's their money. All I want them to know is the cost. Less talk about beating the casino and more about getting your money's worth is in order.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

Gronbog wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:21 pm
I have no issue with your use of "to the power of" in this or the other thread. If my posts have been useful to you then that's all I can hope for.
I was only wondering if i was using it correctly.
Your posts,very useful. Am still looking for a previous post of yours that had a useful general formula that had a similar component. :up:

Sea Lion
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Post by Sea Lion »

I too am appreciating Gronbog's posts. Very informative! My post above is from my personal experience. I am all about getting the biggest bang for my buck, and as been mentioned over the years, a VP machine by itself will not cut it unless you have a monster bankroll. I tend to stick with 8/5 Bonus Poker, 9/6 DDB, and sometimes 9/7/5 DB on nickel 10- play - $2.50 everytime I hit the deal button. You will still get crap on most of the hands dealt and lose on most of them as well, but the chances increase of getting a return of more than 50 credits when the draw button is hit. I do not have a monster bankroll to survive the rollercoaster rides on these, but I do know that I need to play with a card, get your mailers, play on point multiplier days, don't play on non point multiplier days, use the hotel and food comps, and show up for drawings. I have won 2 top prizes in drawings in the last 5 years... $10K at Orleans in 2015 with just 265 entries, and just last month 5K at Rampart with only 200 entries, and this casino has some serious players with endless $100 bills and probably over a million entries at each drawing. I have also won in 3 other drawings. It can happen! I do not play to get rich, I just play to have fun and for entertainment, however I try implement all that has been mentioned here (math, edge, etc.) to make the best of it and see where it goes.

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

tech58 wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:27 am
Am still looking for a previous post of yours that had a useful general formula that had a similar component. :up:
The only one that comes to mind that I might have posted on this site which uses exponents is the formula for N0 (N-zero). I might as well post it here again in case it's the one you wanted and because I did talk about N0 here.

N0 = the number of hands required for your expected result to equal 1 standard deviation = Variance / (EV^2).

EV = your expected loss or win as a percentage of your total bet = (1 - return) for negative games and (return - 1) for positive games.

Example: 9/6 JoB has Variance = 19.51 and a return of 99.54% when played perfectly. So your expected loss on each hand is 1 - 0.9954 = 0.0046 = 0.46%

So For 9/6 JoB, N0 = 19.51 / (0.0046 ^ 2) = 922022.7 ~= 922023 hands ~= 1537 hours at 600 hands per hour.

Gronbog
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Post by Gronbog »

Exercise for those who are interested. What is N0 for someone who does not play JoB perfectly but say plays at a 99% (0.99) return? Show that this player gets to the (losing) long run 4.7 times faster than the perfect player.

MrRobert
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Post by MrRobert »

You made the right move, but keep in mind, it had to be that one card and in that position as we get dealt 5 on top and 5 behind, so its possible the card you wanted never had a chance to get there in many of the hands as it might not of been in the 5 behind and it might of but behind another card in another position. On the other hand you could of got 3 or 4 royals. I have before (seldom) but you did make the right move.

tech58
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Post by tech58 »

No. 5 on top and 5 behind is not used anymore.

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