Chase the royal or keep the flush?

[FloridaPhil]

Gronbog. After reading your posts here, I have a new appreciation for your calculations. You clearly understand the math behind video poker strategy.

Playing the daily contests on this website is nothing like playing VP in a casino for real money. On this website, there is no cost for making an error. If you run out of coins, they give you more. The daily winners are the ones who hit the most and/or biggest jackpots in a day. I play these contests most every day myself. Computer strategy will not make you a winner on these contests. I play the highest variance game I can find. I go for the biggest jackpot at every chance I get. If I did this in a casino, I would go bankrupt in less time than it takes to type it.

This illustrates something I have been saying for years. You must know what the goal is before you implement the strategy.

[Jstark]

Most contests and tournaments can't be played profitably the same way standard play can be.

[FloridaPhil]

The best way to beat the casino yourself is to play with someone else's money.

[Jstark]

I use my own. And I'm not trying to "beat the casino."

[FloridaPhil]

I use my own. And I'm not trying to "beat the casino."

When I play VP on this website, it's not coming out of my pocket. I throw the computer play books out the window and take outlandish risks. Some people call these hands "special plays". At this time, I am ten royals ahead of where VP math says I should be. Is math going to force me to lose to prove it's correct? So many questions. So few answers.

[onemoretry]

At this time, I am ten royals ahead of where VP math says I should be.

With the "go for broke" approach with respect to royal draws you're using, it is hardly surprising you are ahead of the curve.

[FloridaPhil]

Actually, it's not royals that have put me so far ahead. I'm playing TDB and it's been four aces with a kicker. Playing on this website is enlightening. When there's no cost or penalty, you are free to anything you wish. Very similar to playing single coin quarters. When you don't care, having good luck is enough.

[tech58]

If the game is 100 play,is that not 100 shots at a Royal?
If so, how is that "a 8/47 chance"? I never have played multi-play games so asking out of ignorance.

My apologies, I posted this quickly and it is completely incorrect. Please ignore.

As posted above, it is 1/47 per line. The best way to calculate the odds of getting a royal for 100 lines is to calculate the probability of not getting the royal, which is (46/47)^100=0.116=11.6% and then subtract that from 1 to get 0.884=88.4% chance of getting the royal.

Seems like a play well worth making during the contest.

As a representative of our math. challenged members, i have a couple of questions.
First, my intuitive thought about the probability of a royal in this 100 play example (probably wrong but possibly shared with others) is that for a single hand the prob. is 1/47=2.1%. So each of the 100 hands,played out of their own deck,would have an equal chance of happening at 2.1%.My question is why does it appear to me that if prob. came to pass there would be 2.1 royals when the true # is .884?
Second, my error may be due to a lack of the ability to understand your formula resulting in 11.6%.
The little inverted v symbol may have something to do with sq. root. Not sure.
Could you possibly either write out longhand or write it out in first year algebra and post pic. ?
Hope springs eternal, ignorance CAN be cured.

[onemoretry]

Actually, it's not royals that have put me so far ahead. I'm playing TDB and it's been four aces with a kicker. Playing on this website is enlightening. When there's no cost or penalty, you are free to anything you wish. Very similar to playing single coin quarters. When you don't care, having good luck is enough.

Right! I guess it would have been better to not have restricted "going for broke" to only royals, when there are other big hands out there.

Prior to your above-noted post, there are sixteen others in this thread. None have mentioned single coin play, but here is yet again a totally irrelevant reference to it.

[FloridaPhil]

Prior to your above-noted post, there are sixteen others in this thread. None have mentioned single coin play, but here is yet again a totally irrelevant reference to it.

It's about "consequences". If you make an error playing on this website, there are no consequences. If you make an error playing single coin quarters, the consequences are too small to care about. You drink the same free drinks, play the same games and enjoy the same surroundings. The alternative is to believe you can beat the casino and suffer the consequences.

At this point in time, we are all winners because the casinos are closed. (unless you gamble online). The minute the casinos open for business, the majority of winners will become losers. I don't believe I can beat the casino, so I learned to be happy with small wins.

I don't expect everyone to play like I do. I expect to have the right to post my opinion.