MARKETS,Anybody even yet?

[wildman49]

When the market has a big move for a stupid (in my opinion) reason

Fed fund rate going to 5% plus, we got 3 to 6 months of rate hikes. Everyone thinks seasonal or election going to bail out market. Not with the FED in control.

You wonder why I think 5% or even higher. Last night we went out to eat, Thursday night the place was packed. There still to this day on 3 towns around me not one new car on the lot. Last but not least my wife's daughter tells us at dinner that a house just down the road from them sold in 2 days 25k over asking.

These rate hikes coming untill next summer will send this stock market much lower and many years to recover.

[dinghy]

Fed fund rate going to 5% plus, we got 3 to 6 months of rate hikes.

Current rate is only 3%, but I think the 2-year is more relevant as an indicator of what markets already expect. For a couple of weeks, the 2-year has been bumping along near 4.3%. We've gone from zero to 4.3% with coincident stock market losses of SPY -20% and VXUS -30%.

I think I have two ways to win here. (1) Rates top near current levels, or (2) Rates go higher, but inflict so much damage that they eventually fall much lower.

Relative to historical norms, the hikes have been both big and rapid. And they're especially painful because of where they started. If I live in a country with 50% rates increasing to 55%, I may not even notice the difference. But an increase from 0 to 5% is a paradigm shift. Other than briefly in 2006, the US hasn't had a 5% 2-year in the current century.

[wildman49]

The rally that may or may not come should be sold if you think this chart is what's coming. Chart 4


https://stockinvesting.today/ma1608/art ... ar-market?

[dinghy]

The rally that may or may not come should be sold if you think this chart is what's coming. Chart 4

I don't see what you see.

Ignoring dividends, the 73/74 bear cut the S&P almost in half. But it quickly recovered most of the losses.

This year we're already down from 4800 to 3600. If history repeats, we'll slide to 2400 but then rebound above 3600 within a year of the bottom. I can live with that, especially if it's the worst-case scenario.

If I had a perfect crystal ball and saw 2400 ahead guaranteed, of course I would take defensive action, but I only deal in probabilities. I can't imagine being able to predict the future with such precision.

[FAA]

-3.8% Nasdaq.

[olds442jetaway]

I like to lock in profits myself. Was already out of sqqq. Missed the boat the other day. Normally, I would have been in at 51 and out at 56. Was playing catch-up on yard work and other family stuff. Forgot to put in a GTC limit buy order. At least I blew away idle cash in Ct banks still paying almost nothing for Savings and CDS. They are sooo behind the times. They will be crying poor mouth pretty soon I think. Credit Union too. Can you believe 1 percent for a 12 month CD!! Bye. Bye

[dinghy]

TLT now a double-digit m***et:



Yes, I bought more.

[wildman49]

you must like losing money, everything you buy drops 1-2% a day, day after day. You need to keep adding only to you gold miners. Once the big fund traders see that inflation is not going down they all will pile into gold and silver. Right now there mind is thinking FED pivot or inflation falling good luck trading that.

[dinghy]

you must like losing money, everything you buy drops 1-2% a day, day after day. You need to keep adding only to you gold miners.

I'm bookmarking this one.

[dinghy]

Worldwide government bond returns back to 1700:

(https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts/status ... 7790286849)



Assuming the numbers are accurate, I don't see any sustained downturns on the chart. Every bear period was one or two years only, then back to green.

A big story this year has been US dollar strength in part because the Fed is perceived as the best positioned central bank. I acknowledge that TLT could drop further toward 90 or 80 if the narrative continues its momentum. But I think it will be a shocker when the Fed stumbles into a crisis of its own, and then TLT could quickly reverse toward 150. That's why I'm buying, although it's a slow accumulation because I can also make a case for hiding out in 2-year Treasuries.