Long Term vs. Short Term

[Eduardo]

I don't think it's "a lot" of people here at all.

I think there are only a handful of people here who have claimed to be successful advantage players in the past several years. And yes, they would fall into those categories:
-Mainly vegas players
-More skilled than average

Add to that:
-Disciplined
-Savvy when it comes to evaluating opportunities and promotions
-Not prone to wild theories / conspiracies

I see no reason to doubt them. It all adds up and they generally clearly posses the know-how to make it happen. They also don't make any grandiose claims about their winnings. For the most part their winnings are modest.

You really wouldn't have many people arguing with you if you didn't make such broad and inaccurate generalizations.

If there are a bunch of people here making claims that don't fit the categories above, I would love to hear who you think they are.

[billryan]

Do you think people somehow swing back and forth between long time winning and long time losing?
People who play the best games well can expect to be ahead. People who play bad games, and then make them worse by accepting short pay Royals can expect to be behind. I have no doubt the players who play lousy games are net losers. I'm not sure why they cant handle that the opposite is also true, although it might have something to do with why they play bad games to begin with.
The US Government tells me I have a life expectancy of 26.6 more years. Is that a guarantee?
I'm an advantage player. Am I more skilled at video poker than everyone here? Absolutely not. I'm not even sure I'm a good video poker player? What I am very good at is exploiting promotions and inefficiencies. Casinos make mistakes. When I have a perceived advantage, I play. When I don't, I look elsewhere.

[olds442jetaway]

Speaking of mistakes casinos make Billy, here is one you probably would have loved to be in on. Some years ago, Mohegan Sun ran a virtual horse race game. All you had to was to have your player’s card in a slot or vp machine. Every hour or so, the game would pop up. I’m going from memory, but it went like this.....pick a horse to win from say a field of 5. If your horse won, you got 20 bucks or so of free play. All one would need was 5 buddies each picking a different horse to win when the game popped up. So every time during the day they ran the game, your gang would be a winner. This went on a couple of months before they realized it. They modified it a bit, still got stung, then discontinued it entirely.

[FloridaPhil]

Some years ago, Mohegan Sun ran a virtual horse race game. All you had to was to have your player’s card in a slot or vp machine. Every hour or so, the game would pop up.

The Beau Rivage put in the horse race game some years back. It was cool. It didn't last long.

"Long term winning", just like "100% odds", is an ambiguous term. If I walk up to a 99.9% game without comps, should I assume I am doomed to be a long term loser before I play? Should I assume a 100.1% game is a long term winner? If on the last day of my life I clean out my bankroll, play $100 games and hit a royal for $400,000, will that make me a long term winner? You bet, but I won't live to spend it.

I agree playing positive VP games perfectly gives you the best chance of being a long term winner. Even if you don't make the grade, your return will be better. If you are going to play the lousy games I have to play, the best way to play them is as cheap and slow as possible.

If the math says playing single coin on a negative VP game costs less to play, that's what I do. In today's casinos this is common. The exerts agree. They also say most players won't do it because they don't want to hit short coins royals. If most of today's players want to pay more to hit a max coin royal, that's fine with me.

There are very few things that are said on this forum in reference to playing positive games that I disagree with. The facts are, most of today's video poker games are negative and the comps won't make them profitable. If you play these games, you will pay to play. It's up to you to decide how much.

[FloridaPhil]

I went to Tampa yesterday. Hit a $250 quad deuce and a nice dollar run up and came home even. I walked through the new section where they have some new video poker machines. The max coin quarter Deuces Wild game odds in the non smoking casino are 97.055%. In the new section, all the odds are now 96.452%. This is a new low. So far, the older machines haven't been downgraded.

The casinos are slowly working the video poker odds to be equal with slots. I never thought I would see the day when a 97% game was the best game in the house. The best DDB game is 8/5 in all denominations. Jacks or Better and Bonus Poker is 7/5.

[FAA]

Congratulations on breaking even. Your steely discipline again paid off! I never last on dollar machines since the urge to max is overwhelming. Before long, tilt and bust. AC casinos can't all dip; too much competition! But after my Ocean and Hard Rock misadventures, those are off limits.

[olds442jetaway]

What do these casinos think By continuing to lower the pay tables? Turn us all into penny machine addics?Or think we are dumb enough to just keep playing even if the video poker odds get down to 86% well they have another thing coming. for 2018 I cost them 2/3 of my coin in for 2017 or 2019 I am already at Half of where I was for 2018 seriously I think they just don’t get it We play video poker because we love the challenge when the challenge is tilted too far down they will pay the price not us

[FloridaPhil]

What do these casinos think By continuing to lower the pay tables? Turn us all into penny machine addics?

Over the last 10 years or so, we have seen a steady drop in video poker game odds. The number of video poker machines has dropped as well. I am convinced casino's don't want video poker players, they tolerate them. Maintenance on these machines is appalling. Back in the heyday there were rows of video poker machines and progressives. Now you have to hunt for the machines in between rows of penny slots. When you find one, the odds are so bad you might as well play slots.

[billryan]

We have been telling you not to play these games but evidently you have not lost enough yet. Casinos know that offering bad games keeps most knowledgeable players away but still brings in enough revenue to make them profitable. Downgrading them just gets them their money that much faster, frees up seats for more players who give more money. When will you quit? 98%? 96%? At what point do you realize you have no chance and move on?

[FloridaPhil]

We have been telling you not to play these games but evidently you have not lost enough yet.

Bill, what would you tell someone who wants to go to the casino if that's all the games they had to play? Black Jack? Slots? Tiddlywinks? Just asking.