The Challenge

[olds442jetaway]

I’m guessing you hardened the valve seats Phil, run a lead additive, or have modern heads on the car. At any rate, it is a beauty. I remember seeing a pic of it partway done under the hood. Stay safe. Trying to remember now. 292 block and 312 heads?

[FloridaPhil]

I’m guessing you hardened the valve seats Phil, run a lead additive, or have modern heads on the car. At any rate, it is a beauty. I remember seeing a pic of it partway done under the hood. Stay safe. Trying to remember now. 292 block and 312 heads?

Hardened valve seats are not required on a car that is driven only a few miles a month. The alcohol in today's gas also helps. This car still has it's original cylinder block bored .060" oversize. The rest of the engine is out of a 1957 Ford with 312 heads, intake and distributor. The cam is an Isky grind that old man Isky himself recommended. It has a 4.11 gear. With the overdrive it turns about 2,500 a 60 mph. No radio. You couldn't hear it anyway.

[FloridaPhil]

So you're back to disputing the math?

No, I am disputing your interpretation of it. You seem like an intelligent person. I have a few questions for you.

Do you honestly believe you can predict with 100% accuracy how many hands it will take for a person who only plays positive games computer perfect to profit?

Is it possible that an individual video poker machine loaded with a positive game will never produce a royal?

If you die or quit the game before that royal happens, can you be a long term winner?

Please keep it brief. (90 words)

[onemoretry]

Do you honestly believe you can predict with 100% accuracy how many hands it will take for a person who only plays positive games computer perfect to profit?

No one can do that. But, what they can do is predict a probable range of results, depending on the number of hands played. Of course, you already know that, but choose to put the question out there anyway.

[FloridaPhil]

Do you honestly believe you can predict with 100% accuracy how many hands it will take for a person who only plays positive games computer perfect to profit?

No one can do that. But, what they can do is predict a probable range of results, depending on the number of hands played. Of course, you already know that, but choose to put the question out there anyway.

Gronbog is not calculating a "range of results". He is claiming he can calculate the number of hands required to guarantee a profit. If I am interpreting his claim incorrectly, let him explain. If his claims are true, playing positive video games games would not be gambling as there would be no risk. Risk is what is missing in all of these calculations. The world is full of broke gamblers waiting for their "earned" jackpots to happen. (77 words)

[onemoretry]

Gronbog is not calculating a "range of results". He is claiming he can calculate the number of hands required to guarantee a profit.

I believe you are misinterpreting, either deliberately or otherwise, what has been said, but will leave it to him (or her) for further comment.

[Tedlark]

nice car fl phil ! I guess it runs on unleaded regular ??

The compression is higher than stock. I run pump 93 octane gas and it runs fine. It took me a long time to find this car. I wanted a rust free, raven black exterior, red interior, manual transmission with overdrive car. This car spent it's early life in West Texas. It's retired in Florida now, just like me.

Phil, is this the car that you wrote here about a couple years ago? The car that you went up north to get? The car you and olds talked about in several posts? So you did all the work on it yourself, Hmm?????

I may be wrong though.

[olds442jetaway]

Just a brief diversion. After I graduated UCONN in 1970, I worked in our local junk yard for 6 months. By the way, loved it. Anyway, on our lunch hour, I would play penny draw poker with the owner. One day, speaking of 57 fords, a guy drove in and junked a 57 ford retractable hardtop. He got mad cause the top wouldn’t work right. A few days later, a guy junked a 66 hemi satellite cause it kept overheating. I bought neither. At the time, age 21, I was into Tr4s and MGBs. Hindsight.........

[Gronbog]

So you're back to disputing the math?

No, I am disputing your interpretation of it. You seem like an intelligent person. I have a few questions for you.

Thanks for the compliment, but you should know that this is not my interpretation. This concept of mathematical certainty has existed for more than a century.

Do you honestly believe you can predict with 100% accuracy how many hands it will take for a person who only plays positive games computer perfect to profit?

No, never 100%. However, the math can tell you how close you are to that 100% at any given point. It is very achieve able to attain certainty to within a tiny fraction of a percentage point.

Is it possible that an individual video poker machine loaded with a positive game will never produce a royal?

Sure it's theoretically possible, but you need to appreciate the infinitesimally small magnitude of that probability. It's also possible that you will be struck by lightning within the next 10 minutes. The probabilities are comparable.

If you die or quit the game before that royal happens, can you be a long term winner?

Absolutely. By the same theoretical possibility as never getting a royal, you could theoretically see an over abundance of other paying hands enough to keep you in profit. If you're going to play the "so the probability is not zero" card, you have to accept the possibility both ways. But once again, the probability of you profiting in this way is negligibly small.

Please keep it brief. (90 words)

Oh, the irony . I'm doing my best.

In summary, you reject the mathematical prediction of certainty in the long run because there may be a tiny chance that the prediction will be incorrect. You should know that the same calculation also predicts the certainty that those playing negative games will not profit in the long run. The same non-zero probability that they will profit in the long run exists, yet you seem to have accepted the inevitability that these player will eventually lose. Why is it difficult to accept that those playing with an advantage will enjoy the same inevitability of success in the long run? And before you reply that we are not computers and don't play perfectly (which is correct), realize that one does not need to play this well in order to succeed. One needs only to play well enough to still have an advantage.

[Gronbog]

Gronbog is not calculating a "range of results". He is claiming he can calculate the number of hands required to guarantee a profit. If I am interpreting his claim incorrectly, let him explain.

Incorrect but (hopefully) explained above. I am calculating the probability that someone playing with an advantage will be in profit after a given number of hands. As explained above, that probability gets extremely close to 100% after a number of hands easily attainable by a regular player.

If his claims are true, playing positive video games games would not be gambling as there would be no risk.

Not no risk, but eventually so little as not to be a factor.

Risk is what is missing in all of these calculations. The world is full of broke gamblers waiting for their "earned" jackpots to happen. (77 words)

Risk in the calculation is expressed as variance. N0 (N-zero) = Variance / (EV^2). The greater the variance, the more hands it takes to get to certainty.

I've posted this before, but will post it again so that there is no misunderstanding:
N0 is a measure of certainty, but playing 1 x N0 hands does not approach 100% percent certainty. Playing 9x N0 hands yields a certainty of 99.85%. If your investment advisor could prove to you that a given investment was 99.85% likely to return a profit and 0.15% likely to show a loss, would you invest in it? Of course you would.