The Challenge

[advantage playe]

hey fl phil , getting back to your classic ride , how often do u change the clutch plate on that manuel transmission ???

[Gronbog]

One more thing -- and I think that Phil and I will be in agreement here on this first paragraph.

I am not claiming that everyone who attempts playing at an advantage will be successful. In my opinion, Phil is correct that very few who attempt this will succeed.

But the reason is not because we don't play like computers or that few people can play accurately enough to maintain an advantage. You don't need to play like a computer and I believe that most people can learn a game well enough to generate an advantage if there is one to be had.

The reason most will fail is that they lack the discipline to only play when they have an advantage and/or will either try with insufficient bankroll or over bet their bankroll. This will happen for a variety of reasons, most having to do with not being willing to walk away when both conditions (advantage and bankroll) are not in place.

This is not to say that the mathematical predictions are not valid. It means that you are much less likely to succeed if you fail to stick with the overall strategy. It's like me giving you directions on how to get to Orlando, but you decide to make a bunch of detours in the opposite direction. It will either take you much longer to get there or you will take so many detours that you never arrive.

[tech58]

Noted your point about the irony of his request to "be brief", historically accurate to be sure.
However if you re-read the posts in this thread you will find he is making some astounding progress in fighting his addiction to wordiness.
Please join us in cutting him some slack, and praying for his continued recovery.

[FloridaPhil]

Phil, is this the car that you wrote here about a couple years ago? The car that you went up north to get? The car you and olds talked about in several posts? So you did all the work on it yourself, Hmm?????

I may be wrong though.

Yes. I bought this car about two years ago from a consignor in NY. The car came from West Texas. I have restored a number of old cars in my life. I'm getting too old to crawl under a car or lift anything heavy. I have a younger friend that owns a large car collection. His shop is incredible. I work on his cars and he helps me with mine. Together, we rebuilt the suspension, brakes, exhaust system, engine, transmission and rear end. The engine machine work was done by a race car shop in Orlando.

My wife and I drive the TBird to cruises all over Central Florida. It's an enjoyable hobby. We have been cruising together since high school. I was into drag racing for some time. These days, bench racing is where it's at. (137 words)

[FloridaPhil]

hey fl phil , getting back to your classic ride , how often do u change the clutch plate on that manuel transmission ???

When I rebuilt the engine summer before last, I installed a new clutch. It's still in the car and working fine. I baby this car when drive, so it will probably last longer than me. (35 words)

[FloridaPhil]

One more thing -- and I think that Phil and I will be in agreement here on this first paragraph.

I am not claiming that everyone who attempts playing at an advantage will be successful. In my opinion, Phil is correct that very few who attempt this will succeed.

But the reason is not because we don't play like computers or that few people can play accurately enough to maintain an advantage. You don't need to play like a computer and I believe that most people can learn a game well enough to generate an advantage if there is one to be had.

The reason most will fail is that they lack the discipline to only play when they have an advantage and/or will either try with insufficient bankroll or over bet their bankroll. This will happen for a variety of reasons, most having to do with not being willing to walk away when both conditions (advantage and bankroll) are not in place.

This is not to say that the mathematical predictions are not valid. It means that you are much less likely to succeed if you fail to stick with the overall strategy. It's like me giving you directions on how to get to Orlando, but you decide to make a bunch of detours in the opposite direction. It will either take you much longer to get there or you will take so many detours that you never arrive.

Thanks for the clarification. I agree with the statements you made here. Do you believe it is possible for a player to do everything right and still lose long term? (30 words)

[advantage playe]

thanks fl phil !!

[notes1]

fp, so much double talk. you said; you spend money on hobbies that don't make money but bring you pleasure. DUH, isn't that exactly what going to the casino is.

regarding those you fault for mentioning it is possible to make money at a casino. i see very little of that and your comments disputing that assertion dwarf any mention of making money. my personal belief is the number of gamblers who actually make money gambling is soooo small, not worth discussing. probably the same percentage as those who restore a car and actually make money selling it for a profit, after all costs are considered.

is it any more of a 'sin' to spend your money on purchasing, restoring, insuring, maintaining a vanity car than donate money to a casino. why don't you donate all the royalty checks you are collecting to some worthy cause? sell your vanity car and do the same.

no more lectures.

[FloridaPhil]

fp, so much double talk. you said; you spend money on hobbies that don't make money but bring you pleasure. DUH, isn't that exactly what going to the casino is.

regarding those you fault for mentioning it is possible to make money at a casino. i see very little of that and your comments disputing that assertion dwarf any mention of making money. my personal belief is the number of gamblers who actually make money gambling is soooo small, not worth discussing. probably the same percentage as those who restore a car and actually make money selling it for a profit, after all costs are considered.

is it any more of a 'sin' to spend your money on purchasing, restoring, insuring, maintaining a vanity car than donate money to a casino. why don't you donate all the royalty checks you are collecting to some worthy cause? sell your vanity car and do the same.

no more lectures.

I don't know where you got the idea I believe playing video poker is a sin. The last time I looked, gambling wasn't listed in the Ten Commandments. What I object to is using profit as a motivation for playing the game. As you stated, the number of people who make a profit is so small it's not worth discussing.

Why is it necessary to use profit as a video poker teaching tool when the negatives of doing so are potentially harmful to the student? Wouldn't teaching players to be able to enjoy playing the game cheaper be enough? When you teach them the better games are in the higher denominations without telling them those games will cost them more to play, I don't see the point. When someone complains, they are called unintelligent and blamed for their own failure.

In today's casinos, positive video poker opportunities either with or without comps are nearly extinct. The ability to play them perfectly has never been easy. Instead, we keep talking about those games like it was twenty years ago.

Here's what I would like to see. I want to see an expert come on this forum and say positive VP is on life support, smaller coin-in is better and it's not your fault if you can't play video poker like a computer. That will never happen because it doesn't sell. (229 words)

[Gronbog]

Thanks for the clarification. I agree with the statements you made here. Do you believe it is possible for a player to do everything right and still lose long term? (30 words)

We have established that the probability of failure for someone doing everything right and who has played the the required number of hands is not zero, so I am forced to say that it is possible but highly unlikely. So unlikely that you will never run across anyone who has made it that far and is still losing.