Something to Think About

[onemoretry]

I believe the computer TDB strategy calls for holding the kicker if you are dealt 3 aces with it. I never do this. I hold the three aces alone.

Why, if you know what the better play is, do you make the inferior one?

[olds442jetaway]

Vman, I see your point as far as I am concerned. Part of the point I was making about paycheck to paycheck though I didn’t mention it this time has to do with things like 5,000 Uncle Sap handouts for things like earned income credit and blowing it all instead of spending it on family needs, rainy day fund, or even start a 401k or IRA. By the way, you and GF stay safe and well especially GF in dealing with this horrible disease. She gets 5 gold stars for being on the front lines no matter what capacity.

[olds442jetaway]

Keeping this simple, can somebody tell me the probability of being under Royaled by 40 percent in playing 20,000,000 hands on 9/6 job playing computer perfect. That will be close enough for me. I just wanted to keep it simple. That’s where I am now after playing vp more than 30 years. It would equate to hitting about 300 Royals instead of 500. Thanks

[FloridaPhil]

Why, if you know what the better play is, do you make the inferior one?

There is no cost to play on this website. Credits are unlimited. The daily winners reset to zero and begin anew each day. This makes long term results meaningless. If you are dealt three aces with a kicker and you hold the kicker with the aces, you only have one chance of getting the last ace. If you hold only the three aces, you have two chances of getting 800 or 4,000 credits. 800 credits could be the difference in being a daily winner.

Playing video poker with computer generated strategy gives you the best "chance" of making a long term profit. Long term profit is worthless on this website. My point is not to contradict the value of computer generated strategy. I presented a verifiable case where I did not follow the computer strategy and beat this casino. Luck is real and it's more influential than some people wish to admit. I did nothing to create this profit other than play the game. I expect luck will continue to influence my results both positively and negatively. Video poker math is useful. It is not an infallible predictor of the future.

I hit a royal this morning playing triple play deuces wild. Luck strikes again...

[Tedlark]

Royals are not always what determines a profit or loss. The majority of my 34,000 point profit came from four aces with a kicker. I believe the computer TDB strategy calls for holding the kicker if you are dealt 3 aces with it. I never do this. I hold the three aces alone. It is magnitudes better to be lucky than skilled.

34,000 point PROFIT? CASH OUT PHIL, CASH OUT!!!!!

[Tedlark]

It's easy for people to make claims without offering proof. In this case, we have actual proof showing that luck exists. If I quit playing on this website tomorrow, I can claim I beat this casino forever and the game isn't even positive.

Phil, just because you may be 34,000 credits to the positive on this site is not a real accurate indicator of luck. So when your meter starts its eventual downturn will you chalk that up to bad luck or just the long term, catching up with your play?

[FloridaPhil]

Phil, just because you may be 34,000 credits to the positive on this site is not a real accurate indicator of luck. So when your meter starts its eventual downturn will you chalk that up to bad luck or just the long term, catching up with your play?

If it happens, how long will it take? Am I guaranteed to lose? No one knows. I'll post my credits on this website for everyone to see. For the first time we will have real results to look at. I predict if the math proves wrong, someone will say I haven't proved anything.

Ted, the real question is will I live long enough to find out? Will you? Will anyone here? There are too many variables in life to make accurate predictions on future events. In the computer business we have a saying "garbage in, garbage out".

No one knew this virus was coming. What if the virus kills me before I lose all my credits? Will I still be a long time winner? If a gambler wants to risk his/her money betting on a math formula, that's fine. I'm not in that business.

[onemoretry]

I predict if the math proves wrong, someone will say I haven't proved anything.

I predict that, no matter how things go, you will find an argument for saying the math was wrong.

[FloridaPhil]

I predict that, no matter how things go, you will find an argument for saying the math was wrong.

I will go on record and say I will accept whatever happens. One test doesn't prove anything. At least it's more proof than any expert has provided so far.

Compulsive gamblers don't like to be told they may lose. They like to think they are more intelligent than the average person. Luck doesn't apply to them. They have it all figured out and the math to prove it. No gambler ever admits he failed at anything. It comes with the territory.

This may make you mad to hear this. I'm a gambler who learned this lesson the hard way. You may have to find out for yourself. You may lose a wife or two, but it won't kill you. Going to a casino is an enjoyable entertaining way to spend an afternoon. It's not there to pay your bills. The minute you start thinking of a video poker machine as an ATM is when you will know you are in trouble.

[FloridaPhil]

4/2/2020
Starting Credits - 44,563
Ending Credits - 44063

Today was a typical TDB day. No quads. Took about 20 minutes to go through 500 credits. When you play these games every day for years on end, you realize how absurd it is to believe your results are predetermined by math alone. One hand out of thousands can have a gigantic influence on your score either way. One thing we know for sure, I'm not the greatest video poker player in the world.

I expect my score to rise and fall over time like an ocean wave. When you play TDB Bonus the seas get pretty rough. I predict my long term results will be determined purely by luck and they will be less influenced by the game odds or my accuracy. If I live to play long enough, math says I should lose all my credits. Stay tuned.