Something to Think About

[Gronbog]

TDB is a very high variance game. 98.28 for the 9/7 pay table. That combined with about the same return as 9/6 JoB (variance is 19.51) means that it will take about 5 times longer to get to the long run for TDB vs JoB.

Phil if you can tell us which pay table you're playing I can tell you what the math predicts for both the short term and the long term. Yes, we have been discussing long term math, but there is also some short term predictions we can make. It may shine more light on the role of luck in the short term and it could be interesting to compare the predictions with your actual results.

Also, a clarification: In an earlier post you said that you play 500 to 1000 credits a day. I took that to mean 500 to 1000 credits coin-in. However your results above suggest that you played until you lost 500 credits. If you would like to run this experiment of comparing your actual results to the math (not a challenge, just an idea), I would need to know your coin-in for each session.

[Vman96]

Keeping this simple, can somebody tell me the probability of being under Royaled by 40 percent in playing 20,000,000 hands on 9/6 job playing computer perfect. That will be close enough for me. I just wanted to keep it simple. That’s where I am now after playing vp more than 30 years. It would equate to hitting about 300 Royals instead of 500. Thanks

For single line, about 1 in 510,149,279,602,038,000,000. That's 1 in 510 quintillion

So it's much more likely that you've undercounted royals, overcounted total hands, and/or are playing rigged machines.

[Eduardo]

If God wanted us to count 20,000,000 hands correctly he would have given us 100,000,000 fingers.

[FloridaPhil]

Phil if you can tell us which pay table you're playing I can tell you what the math predicts for both the short term and the long term.

I am playing 9/7 TDB 5 credits at a time, a 99.578% game according to this website.

Gronbog. I see nothing wrong with your mathematical calculations. I am sure they are accurate. What I dispute is the value of these calculations in terms of human play. In the simulation I am currently running myself, I am using a 500 coin low limit. Once I reach that limit, I stop playing for that day. This means the number of hands I play each day varies. If I don't hit a quad or better, like this morning, I don't play many hands. If I do, I continue to play. I may stop play when I reach 4,000 coins to lock in that day's score. If someone overtakes me, I pick up play and attempt to catch up. I never allow myself to lose more than 500 credits in any one day.

If I play this same way every day 365 days a year, can you predict how many hands I will play in my lifetime? You can't because you don't know how long I will be playing. If you can, how long will it take me to reach "long term"? In my view, you are attempting to predict a result with incomplete input data. Garbage in, garbage out.

[olds442jetaway]

Thanks much Vman. I would say 90 percent of the hands are single line ganes. I never had a dealt Royal on a multi line game or that would have greatly reduced the shortfall. That answer is absolutely incredible and hard to comprehend, but I know I have not undercounted by more than a handfull if that. Things happen in vp like this that most people either can’t comprehend or just say no way, yet think of the probability for say 20 deals in job coming out exactly that way, then of an 8 hour session of job coming out exaxtly that way. These things in vp do in fact happen. Most people even seasoned veterans still have trouble seeing the difference in odds and probability. Yes, after 13 straight black numbers in roulette the odds of another one on the next spin are close to 50/50 even with a 0 , but the probability of 14 straight blacks is!!!! Certainly not close to 50/50. You don’t have to bother computing that one, but that also happened to me in Atlantic city in the late 1980s. I of course was betting red. As to rigged machines. I hope not. The shortfall was all at Mohegan Sun. However, I know other people that hit on schedule or are over Royaled a bit that play there.

[olds442jetaway]

As to the probability of something in a good direction, I can’t even imagine the probability of hitting exactly to the penny 18,000 bucks on DDS on a Deuces Wild game and then a few hours later playing a three line game of Bonus Deuces Wild hitting for exactly 18,000 bucks again. At the same time on both machines, bets were all over the place from one to 25 coins. On the Bonus Deuces game, the hit was dealt deuces with an ace and on dds it was a dealt royal. I know its impossible to calculate without knowing all of the bets/ facts etc. but the probability must have been incredible of those 2 exact hits in the same few hours. As you guys know, I have posted of it with pics several times a few years ago.

[onemoretry]

Most people even seasoned veterans still have trouble seeing the difference in odds and probability.

I have mentioned previously that odds and probabilities are simply two different ways of expressing the same likelihood. There really is no difference.

[Gronbog]

I am playing 9/7 TDB 5 credits at a time, a 99.578% game according to this website.

Gronbog. I see nothing wrong with your mathematical calculations. I am sure they are accurate. What I dispute is the value of these calculations in terms of human play. In the simulation I am currently running myself, I am using a 500 coin low limit. Once I reach that limit, I stop playing for that day. This means the number of hands I play each day varies. If I don't hit a quad or better, like this morning, I don't play many hands. If I do, I continue to play. I may stop play when I reach 4,000 coins to lock in that day's score. If someone overtakes me, I pick up play and attempt to catch up. I never allow myself to lose more than 500 credits in any one day.

I understand.

If I play this same way every day 365 days a year, can you predict how many hands I will play in my lifetime? You can't because you don't know how long I will be playing. If you can, how long will it take me to reach "long term"? In my view, you are attempting to predict a result with incomplete input data. Garbage in, garbage out.

Exactly right, which is why I was wondering if you could provide your coin-in as you go. With that I could make some predictions about your simulation and, since it looked to me like you were going to start posting your daily results, I thought it would be fun to see how those predictions do compared to your actual results.

If it's difficult to keep track of your coin-in, then I get it. The experiment may not be worth the effort.
If you're just not interested, I also get it. It was just an idea.

[TripleTriple]

For single line, about 1 in 510,149,279,602,038,000,000. That's 1 in 510 quintillion

So it's much more likely that you've undercounted royals, overcounted total hands, and/or are playing rigged machines.

That has got to be the biggest understatement I have ever come across! Not only would you expect no one in the entire population of the earth (if everyone were to have played that many hands) to obtain those results, but it would take approximately 100 BILLION earths' populations to find one person so unlucky. Over the long run of course.

The good news is that despite being the unluckiest person in the universe (until proven otherwise), you can still recoup your losses by winning a modest lottery jackpot.

[FloridaPhil]

Exactly right, which is why I was wondering if you could provide your coin-in as you go. With that I could make some predictions about your simulation and, since it looked to me like you were going to start posting your daily results, I thought it would be fun to see how those predictions do compared to your actual results.

If it's difficult to keep track of your coin-in, then I get it. The experiment may not be worth the effort.
If you're just not interested, I also get it. It was just an idea.

Like most everyone here, I am a prisoner in my own home. Restaurants, casinos, movie theaters and all other forms of entertainment are off limits. Where my son lives in South Florida, they even closed the boat ramps. Perhaps they believe someone can catch the virus from a fish? Last night the governor issued a stay at home order for all of Florida. We have nothing to do but watch TV news. I'm sick of news. I fear we are going to destroy the entire country to save 10%. Most of them are like me and would probably die anyway. Sorry, but this thing is getting ridiculous.

As everyone knows, I strongly disagree with the concept that playing positive video poker games computer perfect removes the risk of long term loss. I believe this is a marketing ploy aimed at filling casinos and selling books. Anything that can happen in video poker will happen. This covers everything from making a million dollars in six months to going completely bankrupt. We have no verifiable actual human data that proves this conclusively either way. I will continue to play every day and post my results. I assume the math says I will lose all my credits. I invite others to join me in their own simulations. Let's find out. At least it will give us something to do.