How are odds calculated?

[FloridaPhil]

I saw you hit that Royal.  Who needs strategy when you can make that happen? 

[OTABILL]

[QUOTE=OTABILL]
In ten years of going to Vegas/Laughlin (haven't been there the last two years) once or twice a year playing the best paytables and using skills learned through win poker software, I have not had one royal flush on single line 25c DDB poker (nor has my wife).
Hi, OTABILL...
When I saw your post, I felt bad for you all.
I'm not a Vp expert... What I'm posting is just stuff I found on the net and tried my best to put it
in simple words. To try to give you an explanation of why your having a hell of time getting a royal.
My favourite VP version for years was and still is DDB...
The problem with DDB is that it is one of the most volatile game versions of VP. It has a variance of
over 41 Plus depending on the version your playing, 9/6 Jacks or Better has a variance of 19.5, 8/5 Bonus poker has a variance of 20.9...
So what does this mean, Well, The short version is DDB is going to make you dig in your wallet twice as
often then the other two game versions.
One definition of gambling is: To bet on an uncertain outcome...
Lets forget about all the fancy information on VP for just a minute. Lets just concentrate on three things
for now. For the illusive Royal Flush you and your wife have been trying to get for Ten Years.    
First... On video poker every hand is independent of each other. The past has no effect on the future.
So if this correct every hand you and your wife played from ten years ago till the last hand you played
a second ago has no effect on what the next hand is going to be.
Second... The main thing that is getting in your way is this " Royal Flush Odds is 1 in 40799 and the percentage of hitting one is 0.00245%"...
Third... The Random Number Generator, To hit the royal you have to stop this sucker at the precise millisecond in order to get a dealt royal or have a chance to use your strategy to fill it in.
If I played VP for ten years without hitting one single royal I'd be thinking like you.
The realistic truth is the odds and percentage are what they are so there never going to change. Every-time you hit the deal button your back to square one as far as odds and percentage for hitting a royal.
The one thing you have control over is your "Timing, Luck, Whatever you want to call it" on stopping the RNG at the precise time or hand combination code for you to get a shot at a royal.
I know I'm going to get blasted for this but what the hell.
The money I play with is mine, Nobody gives me money to play when I use perfect strategy.
Over the years I modified three particular common hands of the DDB strategy.
I don't hold gut shot straights with cards that range from cards 2 threw 10...
I always keep the A instead of the unsuited J,Q...
When I draw an open ended straight that has two suited face cards or suited A with no gaps or one gap
I just keep the suited two cards.
I'm not saying this strategy is correct, I'm just saying this is what I do.
It works for me, I have hit a royal in everyone of this holds, and quad A's with kicker and without on
holds that I kept just the A. And yes I did hit one royal just holding the A of hearts...
In my case if I never hit nothing again till I die making this improper strategy holds, I will still
be way ahead because all the money I've won already doing it this way on this common hands...
The other thing to really watch out for is to make sure you just keep three to the royal when you get four
to the flush, If you play to fast you will miss it more often then not.
The more shots you take at royal the better chance you got of getting it. That goes for the A's also...
Hope this helps you and your wife a bit in your quest for your first royal on DDB...Just keep digging Buddy... Don't let the odds keep you down...
I'll, Tell you what happened to me ounce.
Playing Dollar DDB...
I hit a set of A's with a kicker. After the hand pay the attendant asked to please clear the machine.
I hit the play button and guess what the set of A's showed up again, Did not get the kicker though.
Now you tell me what are the odds for hitting a set of A's back to back. I'll bet you they are astronomical compared to the odds of hitting a royal...
That my friend was, I know that it does not apply when playing video poker but in this case it was "PURE F@#KING LUCK"...
[/QUOTE] Appreciate the kind thoughts and concerns but don't feel bad for either of us. We play VP for entertainment and while it is frustrating not getting premium hands in Vegas with significantly less frequency as the math says, we always enjoy our trips there albeit winning makes things much better . As recreational players we stay within our budget and walk away when our spending limit is reached. So if we play less, there are plenty of other things to do in Vegas besides gambling. Same here where we have virtually stopped going to casinos for health reasons (too smokey).

I have discussed elsewhere my philosophy regarding gambling in this forum a number of times in the past. Some folks just don't get it. That's okay, we all have different priorities and perspectives.

BTW, we play DDB almost exclusively (with a little TDB thrown in) because that's what we like. Again our objective is entertainment and while the odds may be better playing JOB, etc. we play what we prefer.

Good luck in your future VP endeavors.

[OTABILL]

[QUOTE=OTABILL] [QUOTE=billryan] So, rather than admit that you have holes in your game, it must be the game itself is defective.

Excuse me, you have no clue as to how we (or others) play. In my case its not holes in my game but rather pure luck. In ten years of going to Vegas/Laughlin (haven't been there the last two years) once or twice a year playing the best paytables and using skills learned through win poker software, I have not had one royal flush on single line 25c DDB poker (nor has my wife). I have only had 2 AWAK. These are way off the expected results over the number of hands played during that time frame. Without premium hands, even with the best paytables, one can't expect positive results. Meanwhile, we have done better on machines with poorer paytables at local native american casinos because of premium hands though again, we have not had the number we should have based on the math. Ironically, we are ahead at cruise ship casinos, albeit with extremely limited play because of getting a progressive royal and AWAK on successive cruises.

The games are not defective and are random as advertised in my view. Its gambling and luck.

Quite honestly, there was no reason to insult me (or anyone else for that matter) or denigrate my skills without any basis. Think twice before making unsubstantiated accusations. [/QUOTE]

I'm sorry if you feel insulted. I learned a long time ago that bad luck is what losers use as excuses and good luck is how they describe why other people aren't losers.
Since Standard Deviation seems to be the word of the day, when people get results that are several times outside the SD over ten years, the chances are they are the problem, not luck. [/QUOTE]

You make too many assumptions. I don't consider myself or anyone else who goes through a VP dry spell a loser let alone an unknowledgeable player ipso facto. In reality, RF and AWAK are two hands where the choices of what cards to hold playing DDB are quite obvious. Luck is an integral part of gambling and of every day life.

Regarding standard deviation, it is based on the mean which could produce different bell curves etc. depending on the data. And as one mathematician has said, "The standard deviation is a statistic that tells you how tightly all the various examples are clustered around the mean in a set of data....Two standard deviations away from the mean ... account for roughly 95 percent of the people. And three standard deviations ... account for about 99 percent of the people.Standard Deviation . As you can see, several times outside the SD is not unheard of. I suggest you read the entire article.

As I have posted elsewhere, playing VP is a positive experience for my wife and I. The enjoyment far outweighs the cost to our entertainment/discretionary budget. We get more bang for our buck than spending big bucks to attend a Madonna concert or play a round of golf on a prestigious golf course. In that sense we are winners.

I wish you well in playing VP and in life in general. I just ask that you don't jump to conclusions without knowing all the facts.