Intermediate Player Insight for JorB Double STP

[Vman96]

A grind indeed. I reckon I have played 40 hours of VP this year averaging 99.4%, fifty cent average, 800 HPH. My theoretical loss would be around $12/hour. That would be $480 - anumber I can easily live with. I don't really expect to win, and I accept there is a cost to play. But at 15 times expected loss, I just can't continue. In the past, I would have many bad days, but the good days would come and balance them out. With this miserable streak, the good days never came.


Ugh sorry to hear this.

The curiosity got the best of me and I was curious to see what the expectations of 32k hands of 50c TDB would look like. About 5% of the time, one would expect to lose $7200 or more. :( But if you fail to get any Royals or Aces w/kicker it jumps to 37.96%.

                                                               Results
Sims                                                     10000.0000000
ROI %                                                       -0.4219871
SD                                                           9.9136916
Sim Loss of $7200 or more%                                                  4.8800000
Sim Loss of $7200 or more w/no Royal or AWAK %                               37.9576108
Sim Loss of $7200 or more w/no royals no AWAK and 1 or less 2-4s w/kicker   100.0000000
% of Royalless or AWAK Sims                                  5.1900000
% of Sims and 1 or less 2-4s w/kicker       2.7300000

$`Win/Loss Summary`
    Min. 1st Qu.   Median     Mean 3rd Qu.     Max.
-14930.0 -3462.0   -597.5   -344.6   2454.0 19460.0

$`Summary of Play length`
   Min. 1st Qu. Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
32000   32000   32000   32000   32000   32000

$`Summary of Royals or AWAK`
   Min. 1st Qu. Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
0.000   2.000   3.000   2.961   4.000 11.000

$`Summary of 2-4s w/kicker`
   Min. 1st Qu. Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
0.000   4.000   5.000   5.533   7.000 16.000

$`BR w/o RF or AWAK`
   Min. 1st Qu. Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's
-12700   -8419   -6225   -6142   -4099    4565    9481

$`BR w/o RF & no AWAK & 1 or less 2-4s w/kicker`
   Min. 1st Qu. Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.    NA's
-12530 -10800 -10120 -10110   -9211   -8092    9989

[alpax]

Wow TDB can be quite brutal. I read a good amount of extensive AWAK-less streaks here, some people got some really deep pockets to withstand that kind of losing.

Anyhow, I got a chance to do a partial update.

I updated the DSTP multipliers with the proper values and took out all the disclaimers.

I redid the odds of each multipliers appearing.

20X is now 1 in 562500!!!

I redid the odds of the W2G on the denomination/n-play. With the 10X being from 4x to 2x, the odds of getting a W2G has gone up a little.

I tried using the same bankroll values for the Total Rewards, but now the values are a slight over estimate so I will have to do guesswork to make the adjustment.

I got a single line varaince of 9/5 Jacks or Better DSTP to be 49.158, it is in line with what JB from WoO has (49.15).

I am still perplexed on calculating multiline variance of any game requiring more than 5 coins. Still trying to figure out how Video Poker for Winners reports a lower variance if the 6th coin is required.

I am also progressing on a mystery analysis since I was not able to get the multiline variances done at the moment.

I saw a post called 20 times royal here today
http://forum.videopoker.com/forum/forum ... p?TID=9052

With the new information I learned today

Getting 20X on DSTP - 1 in 562500
Getting Royal Flush on 9/5 Jacks or Better - 1 in 40168.71

If there is any truth to it, the odds of it happening are 1 in 562500 x 40168.71 = 1 in 22594899375

Thats right, 1 in 22.594 BILLION. MUCH HARDER than winning Powerball jackpot. I too will need to see a picture...

I will try to get the Total Rewards data updated next

[alpax]

I put in much effort to get the updates on this insight completed this past week. I really feel this update makes it much better than it was before.

It took a lot of trial and error effort trying to grasp the understanding the calculation of CoVariance. I was fortunately able to. I updated the section #2 with Variance information for 3, 5, and 10 play for DSTP. I learned that the 20X Royal stipulation accounts for so much of the variance in the game. It will not get reduced as much with increased hands.

I redid all of the Total Rewards and mLife simulations. Since the variances in DSTP is so high, I've increased the running trials to 100,000. I kept the same bankroll threshold values and just updated the percentage in which it will survive ruin. I took out the 80% and 90% levels because I think it is pointless to fall short.

While trying to figure out how to analyze Variance on the Deal, I added a new section which is just a theoretical breakdown if a player were to play 1 million rounds of 5 play DSTP.

That concludes what I think is really a good insight for players at the intermediate level for DSTP.