I Cannot Afford to Have a Favorite Game

[BobDancer]

[QUOTE=RanerOver the years, I've managed to stay ahead as far as my winnings go.
I can honestley say, I'm ahead around 20 to 25 grand, I don't keep records but that is a honest number.
[/QUOTE]I don't believe I've ever met you, but I find your claim to be highly unlikely.Bonus Poker is a 99.17% game --- even played at 100% (which is not trivial --- it's not a simple game). Multipliers are not such at Station Casino properties to yield an advantage very often10/6 DDB does return 100.06% (this game is MUCH easier to play perfectly), but you're penalized for playing. If you play that game primarily, it's tough to see a host comping you much.I believe you when you say you're not keeping records. I believe you when you say you think you're ahead $20K or more. I just don't believe you ARE ahead that much --- especially when you consider expenses for getting there.Your average play is less-than-break-even and you're ahead 5 or 6 royals playing single line? It basically just doesn't happen --- or rather, happens to a VERY VERY low percentage of players who try it.

[pokerpokerpoker]

Bob, how do you factor in variance when deciding on a play? Let's say you have an 8 hour promo and the best eligible games are TDB at $300/hour or BDLX at $280/hour. I would think there must be a tipping point between variance and hourly EV, especially for a short promo.

[Raner]

Hi Bob, No we never meet. But a long time ago when you came out with win poker, I bought it and
the wife and I leaned the strategy for DDB poker and did very well on the first trip after we leaned
the strategy. We sent you an email to let you know how well we did using your strategy and you
answered back. Maybe it was just luck but it was a great trip.
But if you don't think I'm ahead that's OK as long as I know I am. (As you pro's always say, anything can happen on short term play)...
But, lets say I'm 20 grand in the hole. That's fine with me.
The main reason for the post is to find out which are the best two versions of single line dollar video poker to play in your opinion. I figured you were the person that would have a good answer for me...Thanks...

[BobDancer]

Bob, how do you factor in variance when deciding on a play? Let's say you have an 8 hour promo and the best eligible games are TDB at $300/hour or BDLX at $280/hour. I would think there must be a tipping point between variance and hourly EV, especially for a short promo. You're right. Variance is important. (Your example is "flawed," because TDB at 99.57% is not going to have a higher hourly than BPD at 99.64%. But the premise behind your question is spot on. Sometimes the higher paying game is riskier. What then?)I do not have a mathematical formula that i use for this. The reason, simply put, is that right now I'm blessed with a very sizeable bankroll and the plays that exist do not threaten it. But that's not the case for all players.On an 8 hour play , I would pick a number of hands I anticipated --- based on my average speed and whether W2Gs were likely to be a factor. Let's say I was playing for dollars and i guestimated that I'd play 5000 hands over the eight hours. (If you want to use a higher or lower figure, go ahead).I'd use the bankroll calculator in VPW. I'd look at, say, 10% of the way up from the worst case scenario. That is, 90% of the time I'd do better, and 10% of the time I'd do worse. Would the amount of money lost at that level cause me distress? If not, I would play the game that returned more. If it would cause me distress, I'd probably opt for the safer game.You don't like my formula? Fine. Create your own. But surviving the short run is a very important part of getting to the long run.

[BobDancer]

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[pokerpokerpoker]

"Surviving the short run is a very important part of getting to the long run"

Thanks, I like that.