your next hand?

The lighter side... playing for entertainment, less concerned about "the math."
Gronbog
Senior Member
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:59 pm

Re: your next hand?

Post by Gronbog »


i ran a sim and played 930k hands on aces and faces (99.25) and at the end it was down 4800 credits, im sure that particular sequence is a 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 shot playing 100% perfect strategy on wolf video poker.This sim did very well. Assuming 5 coins played, the expected loss was 34,875 coins. I don't know the variance for this game off hand, but we would need that in order to say how probable or improbable that result was. now if we can harness the power of our wins and losses on 1.25 machines and upwards of that we can beat the casinos 

How so?

stevel96a1
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Joined: Sun May 07, 2017 5:52 am

Post by stevel96a1 »

again i imagine it was a 1 in a 1,000 long shot to be down 4800 credits of 5 credits playedand i dont know how to harness/controll my winning or losing but thats why im here to read and learn books,software,forums can only help me so much i also ran sims on 150k hands and it holds its own  50% of the time but there is no starting or end, its all in your head and yes streaks do happen but impossible to predict when will end/start everything seems to fall back to that 55% of hands are garbage in 10 hands played or 10millions


Gronbog
Senior Member
Posts: 267
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:59 pm

Post by Gronbog »


and i dont know how to harness/controll my winning or losing but thats why im here to read and learn books,software,forums can only help me so much

There is no way to end up a winner in the long run on your machine play alone, unless you find one that returns over 100%. For negative return games, you need to make up the difference with cash back and comps.

advantage playe
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Post by advantage playe »

hey fp las vegas and other massive casino congolmorates were built on this mathematic non guarantee as you put it.

advantage playe
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Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:38 am

Post by advantage playe »

as sample size increases we get closer to theoretical expectancy.

billryan
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Post by billryan »

hey fp las vegas and other massive casino congolmorates were built on this mathematic non guarantee as you put it.

   Casinos don't get built by people losing bets. They exist because they don't pay proper odds on a winning bet.

advantage playe
Video Poker Master
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Joined: Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:38 am

Post by advantage playe »

known as a neg ev in statistical terms.ev =expected value.

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